#militarydevelopments

0:10negotiations over the country’s nuclear program. This single statement has the potential to  

0:15completely shake up the power balance of the  Middle East. However, it also places Iran on  

0:20a direct collision course with the U.S. in a  nuclear battle that it has no hope of winning. 

0:26Let’s start with Khamenei’s threat. On March 31, media reported on a speech  

0:30given by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei  (Wah-Ha-Meh-Ne-E) to mark the end of Ramadan,  

0:35which is the Islamic fasting month. “[The US and Israel] threaten to attack us,  

0:40which we don't think is very probable, but  if they commit any mischief they will surely  

0:44receive a strong reciprocal blow” Iran’s  Supreme Leader claimed in his Eid al-Fitr  

0:49remarks. “If it is carried out, they will  definitely receive a strong counterattack.” 

0:53On April 1, France24 then reported on remarks that  Ali Larijani, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader,  

1:00made on Iranian state TV. “We are not moving  towards [nuclear] weapons,” the advisor claimed.  

1:06“But if you do something wrong in the Iranian  nuclear issue, you will force Iran to move  

1:10towards that because it has to defend itself. Iran  does not want this. But it will have no choice. 

1:16Khamenei’s advisor continued. “If at some point  you – meaning the U.S. – move towards bombing  

1:21by yourself or through Israel, you will  force Iran to make a different decision.” 

1:26These statements, made by both Khamenei  and his trusted advisor, begs the question:  

1:31why is Iran making nuclear threats now? For one, Trump is claiming that the U.S.  

1:36is preparing to bomb Iran. In March, Trump sent a  letter to Iran demanding that the country come to  

1:41the table to negotiate a new nuclear deal with the  U.S. Some might have seen this letter as a strange  

1:47demand. After all, it was Trump who pulled the  U.S. out of a previous deal with Iran – The Joint  

1:53Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA – during  his first term as U.S. President. That deal,  

1:59negotiated by the administration of President  Barack Obama, saw Iran agree to limit its uranium  

2:05enrichment activities to such a low level that it  wouldn’t be capable of producing a nuke, as well  

2:10as agree to limit its purchases of centrifuges  needed for that enrichment process. In return,  

2:16Iran received relief from sanctions that were  costing the country’s economy billions of dollars.

2:21The U.S. was one of the original signatories  of the JCPOA, along with China, Russia,  

2:26France, and the U.K. However, Trump  withdrew the U.S. from the deal in 2018,  

2:31preferring instead to reimplement sanctions that  have had a devastating effect on Iran’s economy. 

2:37By February 2021, those U.S. sanctions had cost  Iran about $1 trillion. So, that seems like a  

2:44win for the U.S. However, the withdrawal from  JCPOA also meant that the most important nuclear  

2:50nation in the deal couldn’t impact it anymore. China and Russia both have ties with Iran – with  

2:55the latter growing closer to Iran since Putin launched his supposed “special  

3:00military operation” in Ukraine – meaning  they wouldn’t act as much of a deterrent. 

3:04France and the U.K. combine to  have around 500 nukes of their own, 

3:08but they simply didn’t bring as much  influence to the table as the United States. 

3:12The result of Trump’s JCPOA withdrawal was  that Iran started breaking the terms of the  

3:17deal. Its justification was that the U.S. had  already broken the deal – its new sanctions  

3:23were the opposite of the relief it expected – so  it should be free to renew its nuclear program. 

3:29Trump’s March letter seeking direct negotiations  with Iran was met with a swift refusal by the  

3:34country. Iran claimed that it couldn’t trust the  U.S. to keep its word in any direct negotiations,  

3:40though it also proposed the possibility of  indirect negotiations via intermediaries in  

3:45Oman. That won’t work for the U.S. As the  IRAM Center points out, Iran and Oman have  

3:50strong military ties that see them frequently  engage in joint military exercises, meaning it  

3:55wouldn’t be a neutral mediator. The U.S. believes  Iran could manipulate Oman into helping it secure  

4:01the best possible deal for itself, which  runs counter to what Trump wants to achieve. 

4:06Trump’s response was to deliver  the most direct military threat the  

4:09U.S. has made toward Iran in years. On March 30, he said that if Iran,  

4:13“doesn’t make a deal, there will be bombing.  It will be bombing the likes of which they  

4:17have never seen before.” That threat led to  an immediate condemnation from Iranian Foreign  

4:21Minister Esmail Baghaei (Es-Mah-Il Bag-Ha-E). “The  explicit threat of bombing Iran by the head of a  

4:25country is a clear contradiction to the essence  of international peace and security,” said the  

4:31minister. “Such a threat is a gross violation  of the United Nations charter and a violation  

4:36of the International Atomic Energy Agency  safeguards regime. Violence brings violence  

4:41and peace creates peace. America can choose.” Remarks by the Supreme Leader and his advisor  

4:47followed just a couple of days later. Trump’s direct threats of a bombing  

4:50campaign may be the primary reason for Iran’s  threats of putting nukes on the table. However,  

4:56it’s not the only one. As Baghaei implied  in his remarks, Iran believes that the U.S.  

5:00threat is a case of a country throwing stones  in a glass house. This view is reinforced by  

5:05comments made by Senior Commander in Iran’s  Revolutionary Guard Corps General Amirali  

5:10Hajizadeh (Am-E-Rah-Lee Why-E-Zah-Day). “The  Americans have at least 10 bases in the region  

5:13around Iran, and they have 50,000 troops,”  the general claimed. “Someone who is in a  

5:18glass room shouldn’t throw stones at anyone.” Hajizadeh has a point. In fact, his numbers,  

5:24at least when it comes to bases, may even  be generous. According to Al Jazeera,  

5:28the U.S. maintains 10 military bases in Saudi  Arabia, though they’re staffed by just 381 troops. 

5:34The 10 bases it has in Kuwait brings the total up  to 20, with another 13 U.S. bases being in Turkey. 

5:41We also can’t ignore the current presence  of U.S. warships, including the aircraft  

5:45carrier the Harry S. Truman, in the Red Sea or  America’s recent decision to move around half of  

5:51its nuclear-capable B-2 Spirit bomber fleet to the  remote base of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. 

5:57All of these bases offer routes into Iran for  the United States and are used by the U.S. to  

6:02maintain its influence over the Middle East. The general’s point is that the U.S. is making  

6:07threats against Iran because Iran is trying to  do the same thing the U.S. does. That’s just as  

6:12relevant to power projection in the Middle East  as it is to the notion of Iran having nuclear  

6:17weapons in the first place. It’s one rule for  the U.S. and another for the rest of the world,  

6:22according to Iran, which is what allows Trump  to make his bombing threats. Iran’s message is  

6:27that it’s had enough of that power balance and is  willing to respond by pushing the nuclear button. 

6:32But while Iran can make all of the threats  about a nuclear response that it wants,  

6:36is the country even capable of launching a  nuke if it feels that the time calls for it? 

6:41The short answer is no. At least, not yet. 

6:44Iran doesn’t have access to any nuclear  weapons. That’s according to The Council  

6:48on Foreign Relations, which confirms that Iran  has no nukes while adding that “it has a long  

6:53history of engaging in secret nuclear weapons  research in violation of its international  

6:58commitments.” One of those commitments is the  JCPOA, which Iran started ignoring after Trump  

7:03withdrew from the deal in 2018. And the  breakdown of that deal may have brought  

7:08it closer to having a nuclear weapon than many in  the international community might want to admit. 

7:13How close? Iran may be just  

7:15months away if it steps up its nuclear program. Iran Watch points out that Trump’s decision to  

7:20remove the U.S. from the JCPOA sparked several  violations of the agreement from Iran’s end. These  

7:26violations began in July 2019, around a year after  Trump’s withdrawal decision, and saw Iran start to  

7:32enrich uranium above the 3.67% Uranium U-235 limit  set by the JCPOA. That’s important because U-235  

7:42is the isotope that makes a nuclear detonation  possible. Most modern nukes have U-235 enriched  

7:48to 90% U-235, though it’s possible to build a  nuke with just 25% enrichment. As of April 2021,  

7:56Iran was at the point where it was enriching  Uranium to 60% U-235, which Iran Watch says  

8:02means it’s done 90% of the work needed to  get its uranium to the appropriate levels. 

8:07Iran has also been acquiring and installing IR-2  and IR-6 centrifuges in its nuclear production  

8:14facilities since the U.S. broke away from  the JCPOA. These centrifuges are key to the  

8:20uranium enrichment process and it’s from these  components that Iran Watch determines its months  

8:25away numbers. The resource says that Iran could  build a nuclear weapon in just four months if it  

8:30has 3,000 IR-2m centrifuges operating at full  capacity. If it has 3,000 IR-6 centrifuges,  

8:38that time is slashed to less than three  months, with Iran being capable of building  

8:42five nuclear weapons inside a year. Does Iran have those centrifuges? 

8:46We have no real idea, because of the secrecy  surrounding its nuclear program and its refusal  

8:51to cooperate with the other signatories  of the JCPOA now the U.S. has pulled away. 

8:57The Institute for Science and International  Security paints an even grimmer picture of  

9:01Iran’s nuclear capabilities. “The unfortunate  reality is that Iran already knows how to build  

9:07nuclear weapons, although there are some  unfinished tasks related to the actual  

9:11construction of them,” the group says. It  says several of the “tent poles” Iran needs  

9:15to make nuking an enemy possible are already  in place. It knows how to enrich uranium to  

9:20the appropriate level. Iran also has delivery  systems, including nuclear-capable missiles,  

9:26ready to go. It only needs to figure out how to  properly weaponize its weapons-grade uranium,  

9:31which involves further development and testing. Assuming Iran accelerates its nuclear program  

9:37in response to U.S. threats, it’s possible  that this weaponization could be achieved  

9:41before the end of 2025. And back in January  2025, The Telegraph reported that Iran was  

9:48working alongside North Korea to develop nuclear  missiles capable of traveling up to 1,864 miles.  

9:55“Tehran has never been as weak and vulnerable as  it is today,” said National Council of Resistance  

10:00of Iran, or NCRI, representative Soona Samsami  (Show-Ona Sham-Sah-Me) at the time. “The desperate  

10:07Iranian regime is speeding up the development  of nuclear weapons. Now is the time to hold the  

10:12regime accountable for internal killings, regional  warmongering, and nuclear weapons development.” 

10:17It's a little over two months since Samsami made  those comments and holding Iran accountable is  

10:22precisely what Trump is trying to do. That’s why  he’s attacking the Houthis in Yemen. Trump’s goal  

10:28here is to cut the head off a group that Iran  uses as proxies for achieving its regional  

10:32goals. It’s also why he’s using bombing threats  to force Iran to come to the table. However,  

10:37these threats seem to be pushing Iran into  the acceleration of a nuclear program that  

10:42is already fairly close to completion. Still, “close” doesn’t mean “ready.” 

10:46Iran can’t launch one of its own nuclear weapons  at the United States right now, at least if  

10:51reporting about the full extent of its nuclear  program is accurate. But if that’s the case,  

10:57how can the country be making nuclear threats? The  U.S. could bomb it into oblivion, targeting Iran’s  

11:02nuclear facilities in the process, before  Iran is ready to press the nuclear button. 

11:07But Iran may have a nuclear  trick up its sleeve: Russia. 

11:10On April 1, Russia warned of “catastrophic”  consequences for the U.S. if it follows  

11:15through on bombing Iran. “Threats are indeed  being heard, ultimatums are also being heard,”  

11:21claimed Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei  Ryabkov (Sir-Guy Ree-Ab-Cove). “We consider such  

11:26methods inappropriate, we condemn them, we  consider them a way for the U.S. to impose  

11:30its will on the Iranian side.” The message  was followed by a claim that Russia would be  

11:34happy to serve as a mediator between Iran and  the U.S., though neither side has responded. 

11:39A couple of days later, Russia cemented its  support of Iran in the nuclear conflict by again  

11:45threatening vague consequences. The country’s  Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova  

11:50(Zhack-Ha-Ro-Vah) said, “The use of military force  by Iran’s adversaries in the context of political  

11:54resolution is illegal and unacceptable.  External threats to bomb Iran’s nuclear  

12:00energy infrastructure would inevitably lead to  far-reaching and irreversible consequences.” 

12:05Did Russia just suggest it might provide  Iran with nuclear weapons if the U.S. bombs? 

12:10Not in so many words, but we can’t ignore the  fact that Russia’s comments come at the same  

12:14time as nuclear threats coming out of Iran. Of  course, we also can’t ignore the hypocrisy at  

12:20play here. Russia is condemning a U.S. plan to  supposedly bomb Iranian energy infrastructure  

12:25at a time when its President Vladimir Putin is  raining bombs down on Ukraine. The country also  

12:31signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with  Iran in January 2025, further allying itself with  

12:37America’s most recent enemy. Russia is also no stranger  

12:40to making nuclear threats of its own. Since Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022,  

12:46he’s made almost constant threats or implications  regarding Russia’s potential use of nuclear  

12:51weapons. United 24 Media published a timeline of  these threats. Immediately after the invasion,  

12:57Putin announced that he was placing Russia on  nuclear alert. He’s constantly warned of countries  

13:02facing consequences beyond any they could imagine  if they help Ukraine, which mirrors Russia’s  

13:07threats now regarding Iran. April 2022 saw  Russia warn that it would deploy nuclear-capable  

13:13hypersonic missiles if Sweden and Finland joined  NATO. Both did, and it seems like Russia did  

13:19nothing. A year later, Russia was claiming that  the risk of nuclear conflict was at its highest  

13:23level since the Cold War. Putin's mouthpiece  Dmitry Medvedev (Med-Veh-Dev) threatened Ukraine,  

13:28the U.K., Germany, and the U.S. with nuclear  weapons in February 2024. The list goes on. 

13:35Now, does this mean that Russia may be  about to arm Iran with nuclear weapons? 

13:39Well, it certainly could. The Arms  Control Association notes that Russia  

13:43has 5,580 nuclear weapons, only 1,549 of  which are already strategically deployed.  

13:51That leaves a stockpile of over 4,000 tactical  nuclear weapons, some of which could feasibly  

13:56find their way into Iran to back the country’s  threat of bringing nuclear weapons to the table. 

14:01Even if Russia doesn’t contribute nukes directly,  we have no idea just how much advice it's giving  

14:06Iran in its quest to build its own warheads.  The countries have a long history of nuclear  

14:11cooperation. That cooperation started in the 1990s  as Iran recovered from its war with Iraq. Russia  

14:17assisted Iran – alongside China and Pakistan – to  help the country move its nuclear program forward.  

14:23That work supposedly concluded in 1995, and  focused on helping Iran build nuclear reactors,  

14:29but Russia likely continued to help Iran through  much of the 1990s according to Iran Watch. 

14:35And even though Russia was a signatory of the  JCPOA we mentioned earlier, that doesn’t change  

14:40the fact that Iran has a track record of turning  to Russia when it needs nuclear help. Could it be  

14:45doing the same again now that it’s under threat  from the U.S.? The comments from Khamenei and  

14:49his advisor suggest it might be, with Russia’s  condemnation of the U.S. adding fuel to that fire.  

14:55Even if Russia doesn’t provide nuclear weapons  to Iran directly, it can justify supporting the  

15:00country’s nuclear program under the two countries'  strategic defense cooperation agreement. 

15:06So what happens if Iran actually ends up  getting its hands on a nuclear weapon? 

15:10For one, the threat of bringing nukes to the  table will become very real very fast. Even so,  

15:15Iran wouldn’t be able to compete with the U.S.  on the nuclear level. The one or two warheads it  

15:20might have would pale in comparison to the 5,225  much more powerful nuclear weapons the U.S. brings  

15:27to the table. That means we’re not going to  see Iran launch its nukes against the U.S.,  

15:31even if it wants to. The threat of reprisal  is too great and Iran doesn’t have the  

15:36missiles needed to hit the U.S. anyway. But perhaps the threat of bringing nuclear  

15:40weapons to the table is less about the  U.S. and more about Iran restoring its  

15:44power projection in the Middle East. After all, the past few months have seen  

15:48it essentially lose Hamas and Hezbollah  to the Israeli war effort. It’s in the  

15:53process of losing the Houthis thanks to U.S.  airstrikes and it’s witnessed the fall of the  

15:57former Syrian regime that it once counted as  an ally. To Iran, acquiring a nuclear weapon  

16:02allows it to threaten the Middle East, which  in turn presents an indirect threat to the U.S.  

16:07Bomb us and we’ll use a nuclear weapon on one of  your allies, the Iranian threat seems to imply. 

16:12If nothing else, Iran obtaining a nuke would give  it a much more powerful deterrent against Israel  

16:17as that country ramps up its Gaza campaign in  the wake of a failed ceasefire. It would also  

16:22put a dent in the U.S.’s attempts to control the  Middle East narrative. Iran wouldn’t even need to  

16:28launch nukes; simply having them could be enough  to force the U.S. into slowing down on its bombing  

16:32rhetoric, which gives the vulnerable Iranian  regime time to breathe and consider its next move. 

16:38It's also possible that this  entire situation will be averted. 

16:42Though Trump is outwardly pushing Iran  toward direct nuclear negotiations,  

16:46which is why he made his bombing threats in the  first place, he also appears to be privately  

16:50considering Iran’s offer of indirect talks. It’s  unlikely that Oman will be the destination for  

16:55those discussions. But according to Axios on  April 2, the White House is still engaged in  

17:00a heavy debate about whether a nuclear deal is  possible and how that deal could be achieved. 

17:06All the rest of the world can  do is wait and see what happens. 

17:09One thing is for certain. Iran has just kicked up  its nuclear rhetoric at a time when it faces the  

17:14greatest threat to its Middle East influence in  several decades. Whether that rhetoric is serious  

17:19or not, the U.S. has been placed on notice. Trump  now has the nuclear problem to consider before he  

17:25follows through on his threats of bombing Iran. But what do you think about this situation? Are  

17:30Iran’s nuclear threats credible? Is it possible  that Russia will help Iran behind the scenes?  

17:35How will the U.S. respond now that nuclear  weapons are on the table? Let us know your  

17:40thoughts in the comments below and remember  to subscribe to The Military Show for more  

17:44up-to-date commentary on the situation in the  Middle East. We’re an independent source of news