#macrostrategy

The United States dollar is appreciating against EUR, JPY, and GBP amid geopolitical escalation.

Macro transmission channels:

Energy prices → inflation expectations

Inflation → Fed rate path

Stronger USD → pressure on EM and risk assets

Oil risks:

• Potential $120–150 per barrel scenario

• Strait of Hormuz disruption

• LNG supply constraints

CME FedWatch indicates near-certainty of no immediate rate cut, with July policy risk rising.

Regional FX themes:

• Euro pressured by energy-driven inflation risk

• Pound weak amid slowing retail inflation

• Yen mixed as BoJ reassesses tightening

• AUD sensitive to RBA commentary and GDP data

Despite risk-off flows, Bitcoin stabilized quickly after dipping below $64K and recently approached $70K.

Macro transmission channels to watch:

• Oil prices → inflation expectations

• Inflation → Fed rate cut timing

• USD strength → EM & crypto pressure

Platforms such as Hyperliquid highlight a structural advantage in volatile environments: 24/7 trading of crypto, commodities, and equities via perpetual markets.

Key takeaway:

• Short term → liquidity-sensitive

• Medium term → potential “digital gold” narrative

• Structural edge → continuous market access

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon highlights rising leverage, private credit growth, and AI-driven disruption as potential systemic risks.

Historical pattern:

• Credit expansion

• Risk underestimation

• Unexpected shock

• Central bank intervention

For Bitcoin, the sequence likely matters:

• Short term → liquidity stress pressures price

• Medium term → monetary easing supports alternative assets

• Long term → fixed supply narrative strengthens

EUR/USD is testing 1.1800 ahead of eurozone CPI. The ECB maintains that policy is appropriately restrictive, with inflation near target.

GBP/USD advances toward 1.3520, despite elevated expectations of BoE rate cuts.

AUD/USD holds above 0.7100 following firm CPI data, supporting the RBA’s cautious tightening stance.

USD/JPY trades near 155.75 as expectations for near-term BoJ tightening diminish amid political commentary.

Gold rebounds toward $5,200, supported by geopolitical risk.

Key themes:

• Inflation remains central

• Diverging central bank paths

• Political influence on monetary policy

• Safe-haven demand returning

Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments collectively held over $1 billion in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by the end of 2025 — increasing exposure despite a 23% quarterly decline in Bitcoin.

Mubadala expanded its position by 46% QoQ, reaching 12.7 million shares. Al Warda raised its stake to 8.2 million shares.

Following additional BTC weakness in early 2026, the position’s value has declined to approximately $800 million. Importantly, filings show no reduction in holdings.

While total spot Bitcoin ETF outflows exceeded $21 billion in 2026, these sovereign-backed funds maintained exposure.

IBIT remains the largest spot Bitcoin ETF globally with ~$58B in assets under management.

Geopolitical risk is, by nature, impossible to forecast. That is exactly why commodities—especially oil—are so difficult to analyze.

In this episode, Tetsu Emori cuts through the noise with a clear and disciplined framework. Rather than chasing short-term price movements, he approaches crude oil as a strategic resource—one that sits at the intersection of geopolitics, supply chains, and national interests.

The strength of this channel lies in its logic. No sensationalism, no oversimplification—just a structured explanation that makes complex relationships understandable, even in an uncertain global environment.

MacroStrategy, una subsidiaria de MicroStrategy, ha recibido un préstamo de $205 millones del proveedor de pagos en criptomonedas Silvergate Bank. El préstamo fue concedido a través del Programa de Apalancamiento de Silvergate Exchange Network (SEN), que emite préstamos en dólares estadounidenses usando Bitcoin como garantía.

El préstamo fue respaldado con cerca del equivalente a $820 millones en Bitcoin, de acuerdo con el formulario presentado a una entidad reguladora. Las acciones bursátiles de MicroStrategy se encontraban con un precio estable durante el trading antes de la apertura del mercado. La compañía de software se ha hecho muy conocida por su apoyo a la mayor de las criptodivisas.

Durante el cuarto trimestre del pasado año 2021, la compañía reportó pérdidas de $150 millones debido a sus adquisiciones en Bitcoin dada la caída en el precio del sector de los activos criptográficos. El préstamo de solo intereses se encuentra asegurado por cierta porción de Bitcoin retenida en la cuenta de respaldo de MacroStrategy, la que posee un acuerdo de custodia negociado por ambas partes.

MacroStrategy puede usar el préstamo para comprar Bitcoin o pagar los intereses y comisiones relacionados al mismo, o para las necesidades corporativas generales de MacroStrategy y MicroStrategy. Puesto en marcha en 2020, el Programa de Apalancamiento de SEN poseía $570.5 millones en compromisos al final del pasado año, según reveló un comunicado de prensa.