AI and LQM Large Quantitative Models in Drug Discovery
Physics-Native Revolution: Large Quantitative Models Change Drug Discovery Rules
LQM Large Quantitative Models
Pharmaceutical research is predicted to shift from trial-and-error experimentation to highly accurate computer simulation by 2025. The “10-10” rule dominated the biopharmaceutical industry for decades: 90% of proposals failed in human trials, and it took 10 years and $2.5 billion to get a medication to market. Large Quantitative Models (LQMs), a new type of artificial intelligence, are overcoming these challenges and paving the way for more efficient and sustainable healthcare.
Beyond Pattern Matching: LQMs Rise
The public is familiar with Large Language Models (LLMs) that predict the next word in a phrase, but LQMs are a new field of artificial intelligence. For rare diseases, text-based pattern matching and historical scientific literature may be poor or nonexistent, while LQMs are “physics-native”.
Training these models begins with physics, chemistry, and molecular biology equations. LQMs simulate subatomic interactions of molecules and proteins in real time rather than guessing from past data. This enables researchers to study over 10^{60} molecules, unlike physical “wet-lab” testing. Combining chemical structures with experimental data like the 5.2 million-structure SAIR dataset, LQMs can estimate drug binding affinity in seconds.
Case Study: Accelerating the Impossible
A landmark partnership between SandboxAQ and UCSF shows how this technology is being used. UCSF researchers under Nobel laureate Dr. Stanley Prusiner were studying neurodegenerative illnesses including Parkinson's, where conventional drug development has failed.
Using standard methods, UCSF researchers estimated in 2024 that a promising Parkinson's treatment would reach clinical trials in 2031. The scientists used AQBioSim to go from brute-force screening to advanced computer simulations. This improvement allowed them to analyse millions of molecules per month, reducing years to months. As global health issues deteriorate, this acceleration is significant since Parkinson's cases are expected to rise 112% by 2050 and Alzheimer's cases by 78 million by 2030.
Total R&D Pipeline Transformation
LQMs treat rare disorders, genetic diseases, and cancer in addition to neurodegeneration. In 2025, R&D saw many major shifts:
Target Identification: AI predicts disease-associated protein three-dimensional structures 97% accurately.
Generative AI creates novel molecules. Rentosertib entered Phase II clinical trials 18 months after artificial intelligence identified the target and chemical.
Safety and Toxicity: DeepTox reduces animal testing by predicting medicine absorption and toxicity with 95% accuracy.
Digital Twins: Researchers are testing drugs on virtual patient replicas before human enrolment to stratify patient groups and personalise therapy.
Economic Impact and Regulatory Change
Using these models is a scientific and economic priority. Manufacturers often raise prescription prices to recover costs from failed efforts. Through in silico (computer) screening, LQMs could lower drug prices and fund therapies for underserved or small patient populations by saving billions in R&D.
Regulatory agencies are also changing. The FDA is gradually replacing animal testing with AI-generated data for monoclonal antibodies and other therapeutic classes. Due to this trend, the AI in drug discovery market is predicted to grow 30% yearly to $6.89 billion by 2029.
Managing Challenges: The “Black Box” Issue
Despite hope, challenges remain. Due to their low explainability, many deep learning models are “black boxes” that hide prediction logic from researchers and regulators. Biassed or inconsistent datasets can lead to unreliable AI results. Tech developers and organisations like the FDA must collaborate to safely integrate new models into conventional regulatory systems.
Conclusion: A New Medical Blueprint
Large Quantitative Models represent a paradigm shift from unsustainable, broken systems to “research-tech” models. These physics-native techniques are overcoming data sparsity and high failure rates to accelerate and improve healthcare.
To understand the potential of huge quantitative models, compare using a high-fidelity flight simulator to building a thousand real aeroplanes and crashing them to assess which design flies best. Before building the first real prototype, scientists can test millions of concepts in a virtual sky LQMs, which simulate plane crashes for traditional drug discovery.
