#joffon

[part 2] is able to continue marrying only those of clear Valyrian descent. Possibly Joff and Daeron also agree that any children of theirs will not receive cradle eggs + any that claim dragons later in life will have to marry either each other or a Targaryen/Velaryon cousin, to set the precedent that Targs that marry out don't have dragons and their children won't either (bc you don't want dragons ending up out of royal control).

[End of Ask]

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This is a very interesting and good thought. I'm going to ramble a bit while I parse through the various points.

In theory, cadet branches seem like a great way to take care of younger sons. Give them some money and men of their own, and let them start a family in a smaller castle. Down the line, if the main line needs help, the cadet branch should be a natural ally. Right?

Unfortunately, in the ASOIAF universe, cadet branches can be very hit-or-miss. There is a risk that a cadet branch may eventually try to rebel against or overthrow the main line, especially as time passes and the original familial bond weakens. Let's look at some examples.

Arguably, the most famous example of a cadet branch is House Blackfyre, and we all know that ended disastrously with the various Blackfyre Rebellions. Of course, this was complicated by Aegon IV being a very shitty person who decided to spite his heir on his deathbed, so maybe we can consider this as an outlier example of a cadet branch gone wrong. Also, the Blackfyre Rebellions take place after the Dance, so they wouldn't be held up as a historical example for Joffron.

But we do have historical/contemporary examples during Joffron's time of cadet branches that turned against the main line. The Greystarks were an ancient cadet branch of the Starks who allied with the Boltons in a rebellion against the Starks; the Starks destroyed the Greystarks and turned them extinct.

The Gulltown Arryns are a cadet branch of the Eyrie Arryns. If I recall correctly (the ASOIAF Wiki is currently down because of Cloudflare issues, so I can't check), Jeyne Arryn faces challenges from her Gulltown Arryn cousins, who think that a male Arryn should be the head of House Arryn, not her. In another universe where the Dance happened differently, Jeyne could very well have been overthrown and replaced by a Gulltown Arryn.

On the other hand, there are lots of examples of cadet branches that are perfectly fine and don't rebel or chafe against the main line. The Lannisport Lannisters get along very well with the Casterly Rock Lannisters—but Casterly Rock is in Lannisport's backyard. So the cadet branch has physical proximity to the main line, which in turn probably helps maintain blood proximity, because the Lannisters can just marry their cousins down the road. (Was Joanna Lannister a Lannisport Lannister? I can't remember.) Similarly, the Daynes of High Hermitage are pretty close in location to the Daynes of Starfall.

Overall, there are many more examples of cadet branches that are fine than cadet branches that rebel. But it's always the BAD examples that stick out the most, and with the Targaryens, they have dragons to consider as well.

You suggested a limitation on cradle eggs/claiming dragons for Joffron's descendants. In theory, this could work. In practice, this requires a lot of trust that future generations will continue following the agreement (all it takes is one bad actor in the cadet branch and/or a weak head of the main line).

They would also be depending on dragons…not being dragons. We tend to speak in terms of "the rider claiming the dragon," but it goes the other way too (especially in the show, with Seasmoke and Addam's example). The dragons on Dragonstone and Driftmark are more free-range, and they don't seem to discriminate between a Targ of the main line versus a cadet branch, as long as they have Targ blood. There's also a common fandom theory that Seasmoke hatched from Meleys's egg, and that's how Laenor got Seasmoke. If a cadet branch Targ has a dragon who lays an egg, it might not be possible for the main line to interfere in time to stop that egg's hatchling from bonding with another cadet branch Targ.

So it would be safest for a cadet branch to never have any dragons/eggs at all. TBH, Joff might not like that tradeoff; she values dragons more than lands/castles/titles. But Joff might not even want to have kids, so maybe it's a moot point.

Circling back to Otto: he is probably too risk-averse to agree to this sort of plan, which requires a lot of "what ifs" and dependencies on people who haven't even been born yet. Other Targs/Velaryons might be in favor of the plan though, even with all its risks.

IMO, the safest form of dragon distribution would either be a) keeping them all in the main line only, or b) having a system like the Valyrian Freehold, where there were enough dragonriding families that they all kept each other in check. Both these options have their drawbacks, though. With Option A, if you get a despot in charge of the main line, you really don't want them being the only person with a dragon (imagine Aegon IV with a dragon).

With Option B—well, having dragons comes at a huge cost. The dragons need to eat and have room to nest. If there are a ton of dragons around Westeros, the land and people are going to take a huge hit real soon. (Think about the little girl who got burned and eaten by Dany's dragons in the show.) I don't remember if this is canon or not, but I have a theory that part of the reason the Valyrians were so imperialistic was that they NEEDED more territory to maintain their high population of dragons. (You know, in addition to the usual imperialistic reasons of greed, hubris, and wanting cheap slave labor.)

Even though the dragons are a very cool aspect of the ASOIAF universe, a dragon-powered monarchy/form of government is really difficult to sustain long-term.