#jerome stakes

2015 Kentucky Derby - Photo Credit Andre' Chapman/ Analyzed Sports December 31, 2016 Louisville, KY. (Analyzed Sports) The Road to Kentucky Derby 143 began on September 17, 2016 with the running of the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs this past fall.  Since then, there have been nine Kentucky Derby Prep races, with 27 more chances for 2 year Colts to earn points to qualify for the running of the Roses in the first Saturday in May. A lot can happen between now and May, but until then, here's a look at the first Top 20 Kentucky Derby Poll of the Colts with aspirations to run for it all on May 6, 2017.

2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 20 - (January 1)

(Photo by NYRA/Chelsea Durand)

Time to hop off the layoff duck I’ve been sitting on since Breeders’ Cup Saturday... with the Jerome!

Finally getting some relief from the undefeated Mohaymen, Chad Brown’s Kentucky Derby prospect Flexibility seeks the winners’ circle in the Jerome Stakes (III), the first of several races leading to the Wood Memorial (I) prep in early April. However, there are additional horses of interest in the field with two Parx shippers and the conqueror of today’s Lost in the Fog Stakes winner.

$200,000 Jerome Stakes (III) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 mile and 70 yards on the inner dirt track at Aqueduct Racetrack. Post Time: Saturday, January 2 at 3:50pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Trainer, Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Silent Assassin - Angel Arroyo, Nick Zito - Listed as a longshot on the morning line and part of the last Harlan’s Holiday crop to race, the ridgeling has raced exclusively on turf up until now, breaking his maiden last out at in a maiden claimer Aqueduct in a dead heat with Steamboat Bill after sitting just off a very slow pace. Silent Assassin might be best advantaged busting out for the lead immediately from the one hole and setting a tepid pace, but is likely still outclassed here.

I guess the Jerome (II) got tired of being an afterthought. A G2 race for sophomores this early? YES! While it doesn't count towards the Kentucky Derby points system, the 1 mile and 70 yards race looks more interesting than the Sham Stakes (III) at Santa Anita the same day, as new and improving horses step up to the plate in hopes of climbing the treacherous New York circuit to the Run for the Roses. Strangely enough, the Sham is the race that probably matters more since it is worth Derby points... who goofed this up?

$200,000 Jerome Stakes (II) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 mile and 70 yards on dirt at Aqueduct. Post Time: Saturday, January 5 at 3:48pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Siete de Oros - Angel Arroyo, 117 lbs, Ramon Preciado - A Pennsylvania-bred gelding by A.P. Warrior, the bay Preciado trainee has raced 4 times as a juvenile with 2 wins all done at Parx. He wasn't much of a threat in his last race in the 7-furlong Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes, where he passed all but 2 rivals in the stretch from last place, but was well-beaten by 6 lengths. His past races look like he's still a bit green with a lot of swerving being done and he steps up in class by shipping to Aqueduct.

2) Vyjack - Cornelio Velasquez, 119 lbs, Rudy Rodriguez - Part of Into Mischief's first crop to race (which also includes Delta Jackpot winner Goldencents), on paper this gelding reads "speed" and "early talent" and his race record does indeed read a perfect 2-for-2, both at Aqueduct. He beat some very classy colts like Clawback, Orb, and Retrieve in a 6 1/2 furlong sprint his first time out then opened up daylight in a stretch drive next out in the Traskwood Stakes winning by 5 3/4 lengths over 7 furlongs. A lazy one by the looks of his breezing tab, Vyjack is a worthy bet stretching out another furlong on a track he already likes and rules over.

3) Long River - Irad Ortiz, 115 lbs, Kieran McLaughlin - Another royally-bred youngster from Darley's colors, the A.P. Indy colt broke his maiden his third try out at Aqueduct, whittling away at a slow pace at this distance as the heavy favorite. I think Round Pond's little boy plateaued in his last race, the win giving him a big push forward in regards to improving more from there. However, he will need help in conquering the speedballs in this race.

4) Amerigo Vespucci - Erick Rodriguez, 117 lbs, Timothy Tullock - Oooh a Henrythenavigator colt... unf. The awesome pedigree power of this dark bay colt came to light in his debut at Laurel Park, where he closed in sharply to win by 2 despite being on an awkward lead. He got burned sitting off the pacesetter after another allowance win in his stakes debut, still beating a recent Maryland-bred stakes winner, then was second last out to the same speedball. A very promising horse, he has turf lines but can do dirt just fine. I'm thinking he needs more running room, though, so it's too soon for explosive success despite never finishing worse than 2nd and some good-looking works to his credit.

5) Notacatbutallama - Ramon Dominguez, 119 lbs, Todd Pletcher - Cutely named, the buck stops there for me ever liking this colt in the long run. By Harlan's Holiday, he's shown surprising resilience as a juvenile, racing 7 times in New York while winning 3 times and placing another 3 times on dirt and turf. I watched his Damon Runyon runner-up performance last out at Aqueduct where he rallied and looked like the winner, but let the winner squeak by. However, the going was sloppy and he gave 6 pounds to the winner, so he could probably do better with a dry, fast going for his second try on the dirt. He should be able to handle dirt looking at his pedigree, and from there it's simple science with the Toddster training. His breezes look healthy and he should be fighting form.

6) Mudflats - Junior Alvarado, 115 lbs, Doug O'Neill - I had this Tapit gelding on my watch list for a while, and a while it took for him to finally break his maiden-- and fittingly so-- in the mud! He has since traded hands to O'Neill and purchased by the Little Red Feather Racing partnership and has been working longer. Still pretty green, it's tough to say how far this one will carry his talents. I think it's too soon for him to go immediately into a G2.

7) Vegas No Show - Paco Lopez, 119 lbs, Kelly Breen - A respectable kind of colt with 6 races under his belt, the Hard Spun son faded badly to finish 9th in the Remsen (II) last out. Apart from that bomb, he's been in good working order losing to Violence in the Nashua (II) and was game in winning the Dover Stakes at Delaware Park. Blinkers will be coming off for this race. I'm going to throw out his Remsen, as his record is otherwise pretty good and his recent breezes look good enough. He can finish "up there" but I don't think we'll see his best form until later down the road.

8) James Jingle - Eddie Castro, 115 lbs, James Kelly - A New York-bred by Harlan's Holiday, the outsider of the race rallied hard to break his maiden at a mile at Belmont back in September, which is his only win in 6 starts. Not the most brilliant in the field, he has been hitting the board lately at big odds so it wouldn't hurt to include him in your exotics.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Notacatbutallama

2) Vyjack

3) Long River

Aqueduct is kind of a weird place in winter, and seeing how it's been cold lately the track may very well support fast fractions... whether or not they'll hold is a different story. I don't see too many serious contenders against Notacatbutallama, who has Pletcher power backing him up in New York as well as good back-class. Yes he looks like a turf horse, but his pedigree reads "dirt" and I think he can do this one. Vyjack looks to be the early speed, and I think he's going to keep doing well and might even upset in his first time around 2 turns. Under a featherweight and a head of improving steam, I'm keeping Long River tabbed as well.