#indiagdpgrowth

Rating firm Crisil has revised its real GDP forecast for India in fiscal 2021 to a contraction of 9 percent from 5 percent fall projected in May and estimated a permanent loss of 13 percent of real GDP over the medium term, which amounts to Rs 30 lakh crore in nominal terms. With the pandemic’s peak not yet in sight and the government not providing adequate direct fiscal support, the downside risks to the earlier forecast have materialized, it said. “If the pandemic were to peak out in September-October, GDP growth could move into mildly positive territory towards the end of this fiscal,” it said, adding even in that event, manufacturing is expected to revive faster compared with services. “But the risks to our outlook remain tilted to the downside till such time a vaccine is found and mass-produced.” “We expect a permanent loss of 13 percent of real GDP over the medium term. In nominal terms, this amounts to Rs 30 lakh crore. This is much higher than a 3.0% permanent hit to GDP in Asia-Pacific economies (ex-China and India) over the medium run estimated by S&P Global in June,” the rating agency said. Catch-up with the pre-pandemic trend value of real GDP would require average real GDP growth to surge to 13 percent annually for the next three fiscals — a feat never before accomplished by India. Read the full article