In what instances would ICURE fail to change someone's beliefs? Would access to outside information or (not very good at their jobs) guards discussing events without tact help someone realise something fishy was going on?
Very broad question without clear, satisfying answers Anon.
 Basically: there is no guaranteed way to change a personâs mind. There are strategies we know canât work. But everything that has a chance of success also has a chance of failure. And it isnât a clear cut thing that I can give you a clean list of factors for.
 Humans are difficult creatures to study because they come with a lot of inbuilt confounding factors and individual variation. This makes it very difficult to identify clear reasons why something didnât work. Because we have to assume that multiple factors are at work and the interaction of those factors may be as important as each factor individually.
 Even if you write your villains performing ICURE âperfectlyâ there is still a chance of failure. And therefore it is realistic for you to decide it fails for this character.
 We canât really study which âbitsâ of ICURE are most effective. Partly because of that little thing called ethics but partly because setting up a study would be incredibly difficult. Itâs hard enough to measure belief. Finding a large enough sample size, controlling for every possible confounding factor or variable and studying people for the years it would take to get any answers⌠Itâs a big ask. Itâs probably never going to happen.
 So with the caveat that we canât tell if any of the parts of ICURE are more important letâs talk about how they can break down.
 ICURE, for everyone who hasnât heard me talk about it before, is a set of techniques which can (sometimes) be used to manipulate a person into changing their views. They take months or years to have any real effect and as mentioned theyâre not always successful.
 The acronym stands for Isolate, Control information, create Uncertainty, Repetition and Emotive responses. And if youâre writing a story where villains are trying to apply this but not doing it well it can break down at literally any one of these points.
 I would say based on what Iâve read that different groups focus more heavily on different aspects depending on their setting and strategy. Groups that are straight up kidnapping or imprisoning people often seem to focus more heavily on isolation and controlling information but often fall down on the other three. Whereas the impression I get of cults and some extremist political groups is that they focus more on creating uncertainty and emotive responses, which they can then use to further isolate members from family and friends.
 Controlling information is a common place for ICURE to break down nowadays. The rise of the internet and the decreasing size of devices has made it easier for victims to access unauthorised sources even when imprisoned.
 But repetition is also a very common place for ICURE to break down because in large groups not every individual is going to follow the same script perfectly. Group members can also undermine ICURE by lashing out, physically or verbally, driving their target away.
 Creating uncertainty doesnât always work. Sometimes victims straight up do not believe what theyâre told. Some attempts to create uncertainty around core beliefs lead to a knee-jerk rejection of whatâs being said. Sometimes targets know more about a given subject then the person trying to create uncertainty and as a result the attempt is absurdly obvious.
 Emotive responses are similarly⌠charged. Attempting to instil a sense of disgust or rejection of something an individual supports wonât always work. Over a long period of time it can. But I can think of a lot of cases where it has instead taught individuals to lie to the group, hide their beliefs or activities and served to drive them away from the group.
 Isolation is either difficult or easy depending on the context of the story. A character who is in a literal prison can easily be isolated from anyone but vetted individuals. A character who has been targetted by a cult, but is still going about normal day to day business, is a lot harder to isolate completely.
 Cults and extremist groups tend to rely on uncertainty, repetition and emotive responses because they know that if they can shift a targetâs beliefs the target will isolate themselves.
 Let me give you an example to illustrate this. Imagine a country where thereâs a big, culturally important celebration that involves eating candied orange peel and wearing red. Now imagine a cult within the country that rejects candy as sinful and wearing red as a sign of bad character.
 A character targetted by this cult might feel increasingly uncomfortable with this festival. May be at first they go with their friends and family, wear red but donât eat the candied orange peel. May be the year after they decide not to go, missing a chance to spend time with their friends and family. May be a few years later their rejection of the festival is so deep they try to persuade their friends and family not to go.
 This leads to a big argument. They and their friends/family say things in the heat of the moment. Now all sides are upset and communication becomes harder.
 These kinds of patterns of behaviour lead to the target isolating themselves from friends and family, as their views become more extreme and drive away people who arenât members of the cult.
 But crucially they can still choose to socialise with people outside of the cult. This will probably be met with social censure from the cult, making it difficult and painful. It is still possible. And outside friendships or activities can help a person to break free or resist ICURE techniques.
 All of this basically means you have a lot of options for your story because there are plenty of things you can weave in that would undermine ICURE.
 Your character is in prison, so breaking isolation is more difficult. But if the prison is overcrowded or thereâs a sudden influx of people being transferred between facilities the character might end up with a⌠poor choice of cell mate from the guardâs perspective. Some one with beliefs radically opposed to the guards or someone who could support and shore up the characterâs old beliefs.
 There may also be opportunities for covert communication and bonding within the prison. Perhaps prisoners can gather during breaks and have worked out a cant or code to talk about beliefs the guards are trying to stamp out.
 Control of information can break down because isolation has broken down, with prisoners trading information. It can also happen through the prisoner trading for a phone or a similar item allowing them to access forbidden information. Or it can happen through things like guards inadvertently giving out information.
 Uncertainty is difficult to create around core beliefs. The impression I get from anecdotal accounts is that pushing too hard at core beliefs too early often causes targets to withdraw from the people attempting ICURE. It can also lead to targets doubling down on their beliefs.
 People attempting ICURE can also mess up on creating uncertainty, as described above.
 Repetition can break down because guards donât all do or say the same things consistently. They could contradict each other. Or they might just not repeat the same thing very often.
 Emotive responses can break down in much the same way creating uncertainty does. Not everyone responds emotionally to the same things or in the same way. Once again different guards can undermine the desired response. The character might dig in to their original position, they might withdraw from the people attempting ICURE. They might just learn to lie to them.
 I think as a writer the best approach to this is to use a mix of internal and external factors effecting multiple parts of ICURE. Just because I think that would create a better story.
 The readers can see the internal struggle and resistance in the character. They can also see the guards messing up and how that impacts the character. May be the importance of support from other people, fellow prisoners or cleaning staff or doctors or anyone else that fits with the setting.
 Basically including multiple elements will give you a more fleshed out story with more emotional depth and impact. Thatâs a good narrative reason to include it.
 I hope that helps. :)
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