#ice analysis

Posted by: Chris Debicki, expedition leader 

Thick fog rolled in on Thursday afternoon, halting our progress once we’d completed our CTD (conductivity, temperature, depth) studies in the Upernavik Icefjord. That made travel unsafe and we pulled into a small, protected cove for the night. 

The weather made it too risky to try to dodge the usual hazards of icebergs and sea ice. We've also discovered that charts in this region are missing critical information. Huge areas have not been sounded and many of the depth readings on our nautical charts are not accurate. This is a mountainous region of sharp cliffs and the sea bottom is similarly rugged. Shallow water appears without warning. 

After 24 hours of work, this break afforded Knut and I some time to seriously discuss the most recent ice reports. The reports do not look good. Melville Bay is not opening up in the way we had hoped. This year may turn out to be the “worst” ice year in a decade in this region. I put “worst” in quotations because it is obviously silly to attach a negative judgment to sea ice. This is the same ice cover that acts as one of the world’s most important cooling systems. That's because sea ice, with its white surface, reflects much more of the sun’s radiation than does open water. 

The ice also protects migrating whales. Ninety percent ice cover is no obstacle to these marine mammals. What will happen to bowhead and narwhal migration patterns if the icescape continues to change so dramatically? What kind of industries will move in if these regions become accessible? What measures to protect this ecosystem will be in place before this happens? 

Even though there has been a pronounced decline in sea ice extent in this part of the Arctic over the last decade, we knew that climate modeling experts still predict great variability form year to year. This is turning out to be one of those years.  

Our experience with heavier than average sea ice –- at least for recent years -- may also serve as a reminder that increased commercial activity in the Arctic must take into account these extreme shifts in ice conditions. That's essential to lower the risk of accidents in an area without the infrastructure to respond.  

Our team is finally assembling in Greenland and our ship, the Arctic Endeavour, will soon arrive from Newfoundland. We are now looking north at what is the most formidable obstacle in our path: the sea ice that lies between us and the North Water Polynya in northern Baffin Bay.

There’s a reason only icebreakers have attempted to get into the North Water Polynya so early in the season: this enormous swath of year-round open water is surrounded by hundreds of kilometres of ice.  In the weeks to come, we will need to find a safe route from Upernavik, Greenland into Melville Bay. From there, we will make our push into the North Water Polynya. The travel window is narrow: an ice arch across Nares Strait on the northern end of the polynya prevents an inflow of polar pack ice. Once that arch breaks in early summer, polar ice streams southward through Nares Strait. This flood of ice may restrict passage across the North Water.

To find the ice window, we will rely heavily on the best ice data and ice forecasting available. Our partners at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center will be relaying daily updates to the boat via satellite so that we can make decisions. In addition, the Canadian Ice Service provides excellent regional ice analyses. Below is a recent sea ice map created by Jeremy Davies, our marine spatial analysis manager, based on that info:

It is no accident that we have Knut Espen Solberg as our captain and resident ice expert.  After four years of navigating ice in the Northwest Passage and nearly a decade wriggling through other sea ice, Knut easily ranks among the most experienced high-latitude sailors. He continues a proud Norwegian tradition started by that country’s explorers Fridtjof Nansen and Roald Amundsen more than 100 years ago. Here is Knut’s most recent ice analysis, sent to us via satellite phone from the Arctic Endeavour:

At this time of the year, we usually experience a high melt rate in Baffin Bay. The open water lead along the Greenlandic coast opens northward, providing access to communities like Upernavik. So far this season, the ice melt has been slow and large ice concentrations prevail throughout much of Baffin Bay. The ice edge in the southeastern portion of the Bay is closer to the Greenland coast than has been the case in recent years, resulting in a fairly narrow lead up into Disko Bay. In the northern part of Disko Bay, there are areas of up to 5/10 ice coverage, reducing access to more northern communities. This loose ice can consolidate if we get strong easterly winds and that may produce an open water route all the way to Upernavik.