Short term causes of the first world war
28 June 1914: The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife by Gavrilo Princip, a member of the anti-Austrian terrorist organisation the Black Hand - sponsored and trained by members of the the Serbian Government. Sparked the Long Term tensions into war. Gave Austria-Hungary cause to declare war on Serbia, which it had not done previously in 1913 - Germany had restrained it. Now there was a belief that the nature of the assassination would provide international sympathy, encouraging it to risk more decisive action against Serbia, without it necessarily englarging to a wider conflict. Significantly, there were grounds to believe that Russia, the protector of slavs, would not intervene on the side of Serbia because the tsars were not infrequently the targets of terrorist attacks themselves.
The July Crisis 1914: Austria-Hungary blamed the Kingdom of Serbia for the assassination. Austria-Hungary had long been desirous of war with Serbia, its main rival in the Balkans, and seized on the opportunity presented by the assassination to provoke military action.
GIF by muvana
The "blank cheque" 6 July 1914: The German government/ Kaiser Wilhelm urged Austria-Hungary to attack Serbia and promised German help without any conditions attached. Austria-Hungary was emboldened by this encouragement, resulting in the provocative ultiumatum it would later deliver to Serbia. Fritz Fischer: Germany should take most of the blame for the war because it risked major war by sending the "blank cheque", deliberately planned for and provoked war with Russia, Britain and France in order to make Germany the dominant power in the world, both economically and politically, and also as a way to deal with domestic tensions. War council 08.12.1912, Admiral von Moltke: "I believe war is unavoidable, the sooner the better" H.W.Koch: nothing came of the war council Moltke, earlier in 1914: there was no other alternative for the Germans but to make 'preventive' war in order to defeat their enemies before they became too powerful. War must take place before the end of 1914 - fears that Russia would become too strong. Other historians: Germany did not want war, only taking a strong line of support of Austria in the belief that it would frighten the Russians into remaining neutral - a tragedy of miscalculation.
Austria-Hungary's ultimatum 23 July 1914: Austria-Hungary took the first step in escalating the crisis when it issued a harsh ultimatum to the Serbian government. A.J.P. Taylor: the ultimatum was deliberately harsh, and designed to be rejected. It demanded that Serbia would have to open a judicial inquiry into the perpetrators of the assassination and that hte investigation be open to scrutiny by Austrio-Hungarian investigators - since such foreign intervention would represent a violation of Serbian independence, it was unlikely to be accepted. Serbia given 48 hours to respond.
Serbia's response 24 July 1914: Serbia accepted all demands but one. Although, Serbia was aware that it was likely that military action would result from this refusal, they were perhaps emboldened by hopes that Russia might act to protect Serbia against Austria-Hungary. Russia, the protector of Slavs, wanted to preserve its image and was keen to prevent potential extension of the territory of its rival Austria-Hungary in the Balkans. There existed no formal alliance though.
Austria-Hungary declares war 28 July 1914: Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia and refused all offers of mediation. Promised that it had no quarrel with Russia L.C.F. Turner: Austria-Hungary miscalculated by thinking Russia would not support Serbia
Russian mobilisation 29 July 1914: Russia, as Serbia's ally, ordered the mobilisation of the southern corps on the Austrian border, but avowed no quarrel with Germany - early mobilisation was crucial to compensate for logistical and organisational difficulties slowing down military readiness, but Russian mobilisation did not necessarily have to presage war, in contrast to German mobilisation. Germany warned Russia that even partial mobilisation would start a war between them.
German regrets? 30 July 1914: Almost at the last minute, the Kaiser and (Chancellor) Bethmann tried to avoid war and urged the Austrians to negotiate with Serbia - evidence for the aforemention perspective that Germany merely wished to frighten Russia? Kaiser Wilhelm suggested a partial mobilisation against Russia only, instead of the full Schlieffen plan, hoping that Britain would remain neutral if Germany refrained from attacking France. But Moltke insisted on the full Schlieffen plan, saying there was no time to change all the railway timetables to send troops against Russia instead of Belgium. A.J.P. Taylor: these plans (Schlieffen), based on precise railway timetables for the rapid mobilisation of troops, accelerated the tempo of events and reduced almost to nil the time available for negotiation. Terence Zuber: the Schlieffen plan was only one of many alternatives being considered. - Schlieffen never inteded that all forces be sent into France to destroy their army in one huge battle and never committed himself to just one plan. It was only after the war that the Germans tried to blame their defeat on the rigidity and the constraints of the Schlieffen plan, which had in fact never existed in the form they tried to make out. L.C.F. Turner: Germany may not have deliberately provoked war; it was caused by a tragedy of miscalculation (and bad leaders): the Austrians miscalculated by thinking Russia would not support Serbia, Germany made a crucial mistake by promising unconditional support to Austria, therefore Germany and Austria were guilty because they risked a major war, Politicians in Russia and Germany miscalculated by assuming that mobilisation would not necessarily mean war. If correct, this would mean that the generals, especially Moltke, miscalculated by sticking rigidly to their plans in the belief that this would bring a quick and decisive victory.
Russia 1 August 1914: Germany declared war on Russia, (falsely) blaming Russia for crossing the frontier that afternoon and starting the war.
2 August 1914: Germany demanded free passage through Belgium so that it could attack France.
3 August 1914: Germany declared war on France because it expected France to declare for Russia against Germany, and felt it needed to knock out France before it faced a war on two fronts; the greatest dread of all. Belgium rejects Germany's demands for neutrality and free passage: appeals for British help.
4 August 1914: Following General Moltke's Schlieffen plan to knock-out France, German troops under General von Kluck cross the Belgian border, violating Belgian neutrality. Germany was halted at the battle of Liege, delaying the invasion of France by four to five days. Great Britain declared war on Germany.
WAR!
