#ia-01

This article is an example of why you should not automatically accept the narratives of political pundits and prognosticators.

Right now the pundits are telling us that Democrats should expect terrible election results this autumn.

Five Thirty-Eight rates IA-3 as Leaning Republican and IA-01 and IA-02 as both Likely Republican. But a series of new polls in Iowa rate all three races as toss-ups.

In Eastern Iowa’s new 2nd Congressional District, Republican incumbent Ashley Hinson and Democratic challenger Liz Mathis are locked in a dead heat, according to polling commissioned by Mathis’ campaign.

Hinson and Mathis are tied at 44 percent, according to the poll from Public Policy Polling, a national pollster that is frequently employed by Democratic candidates.

The poll also asked respondents the so-called generic ballot question: Do you plan to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress? To that question, 50 percent said the Republican candidate and 43 percent said the Democrat.

But when the poll later asked whether voters planned to support Hinson or Mathis, the results were a draw.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 594 2nd District voters July 19-20. The poll’s margin for error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In Eastern Iowa’s new 1st District, an internal poll released by Christina Bohannan’s campaign showed the Democratic challenger trailing Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks by a single percentage point.

The poll was part of a Change Research poll conducted for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mike Franken and released last week.

Surveying likely voters between June 30 and July 4, Miller-Meeks polled ahead, 39 percent to 38 percent, according to the Bohannan campaign. Nearly 22 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided. The statewide poll sampled 1,488 likely voters, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

In central Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne and Republican challenger Zach Nunn also are locked in a dead heat, according to a new poll from a company that does polling for Republican candidates.

Axne and Nunn both reached 43 percent in Moore Information Group’s poll of 400 likely 3rd District voters. According to the results, 14 percent of voters said they remain undecided.

Frankly, Democrats cannot afford to be “discouraged voters” this cycle. Giving Republicans control of the House is like the Continental Congress electing Benedict Arnold the commander-in-chief of the Continental Army.

In 2006 a 50-state strategy helped Democrats flip both chambers of Congress. In 2022, no state should be neglected when the stakes are even higher.

Assume that every House race which is not Solid Republican is in play. That is what these various polls from largely Republican Iowa are telling us. 

If every pro-democracy, pro-reproductive freedom, and LGBTQ friendly voter makes it their business to vote and gets their like-minded friends and family to vote, the Trump-friendly Kevin McCarthy will never become House Speaker. This cycle is not the time to be shy about getting others to vote.