#hypecycle

(German Article) Offener Brief von Digitalchef Christian Meyer

First of all please excuse that this article is in German. It’s based on an open letter to the digital industry with a focus on german speaking region. — Christian Meyer ist Senior Media Manager Europe und Head of Digital bei der Theo Müller Gruppe. Sein offener Brief vom 1. September 2016 hat einige Gemüter erregt…und dies kurz vor dem wichtigsten Event in der Branche, der DMEXCO.

Day 3/30

Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures had an excellent post tonight about the hype cycle of Bitcoin. I highly recommend you read it. Technology isn't immune to the cyclical nature of human infatuation, from inflated expectations and crashing disillusionment. Wilson introduces the Gartner Hype Cycle and explains it with the following graph:

Many icons in our life endure the irreality of the hype-cycle. For example, every August I subject myself to the bombastic hopes of any Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan, and will my team to the Super Bowl. The peak of inflated expectations usually occurs (in the offseason) around kickoff of the first game, and we're well into the trough of disillusionment by week three. Maybe we'll figure out who's starting at quarterback by week four, be confident in our decision by week five, and find a rhythm by week (seven, eight, nine?) six.

But people are subject to the hype-cycle as well. I've usually been subject to the inverse of the hype-cycle, and that's what I want to focus on tonight. Two former US presidents are sitting across from one another and are asked "to talk about each other." Bill Clinton looks at George W. Bush and said that Bush "consistently benefited by being underestimated" by the public and Congress. In doing so, Bush managed public perceptions and expectations, and kept a tighter grip on things than seemed on the surface. Channeling Sun Tzu, Clinton said, "You always want to be underestimated by your adversaries."

For another example, look at Mohammad Ali and Joe Frazier. Ali was, at the time, a largely-unproven up-and-comer who talked more than he fought. Frazier slacked off from his training because he thought that the kid was all talk and no hook. When Ali knocked him down in the ring, Frazier was at the inverted peak of the trough of disillusionment. He was enlightened with his lights out to the great fighter that Ali had become, and was unprepared for one of the most famous fights in history.

I'm okay with my slight southern accent and what it means to many people. I'm more than fine with not being the smartest guy in the room, and if I ever am, hell, I choose a new room. I want to be underestimated because, although at times it may be frustrating, I will catch my adversary with their guard down. And defense will win—or lose—championships.