1) Howard has to force Phil Jackson to double-team. Let's do some background work here: the Magic beat the Cavs primarily because they didn't have a single player that could in any way impede or threaten two out of three of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu. LeBron James could cover one of them, but the other two had pretty much free reign. If the Lakers go traditional with their starting line-up (Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Trevor Ariza, Kobe Bryant, and Derek Fisher) they could run into the same issue as Howard has traditionally lit up Bynum and Gasol can't guard either Magic forward on the perimeter. Expect Phil Jackson to know this, so expect to see a lot of Gasol at center with Odom and Ariza at the forwards. In this allignment, neither Magic forward has any advantage against their defender. Thus, to open up the Magic offense, Howard has to be too much for Gasol down low. And not just a little too much, as the Lakers would probably live with Howard scoring 22 points per if it means that the 3-point shooters can't get looks. No, Howard needs to channel his game 6 performance against the Cavs and be a consistent 30-point threat, collapsing the Lakers defense to the point that they have to help. If Howard can do this for four games, the Magic have a good shot at taking this.
2) The Magic point guards have to torch the Lakers. There is a big fuss right now about whether or not Jameer Nelson is going to play this series. If Nelson were 100% the Magic would have an excellent chance, because the Lakers' point guards are their Achilles heels and Nelson has shown that he can exploit this. Unfortunately, even if he plays, it is unlikely that Nelson will be anywhere near impact level. Thus, it likely falls to Rafer Alston to be the one to force the mismatch. Skip-to-my-Lou is a mercurial player that is capable of wielding a flame thrower like he did at times against the Cavs, but he is just as likely to throw up bricks as he has during the majority of his Magic tenure. The fact that the Magic absolutely NEED either Nelson to miraculously play at All Star Form or Skip to play at his best for at least four of the next seven games is daunting, but it is a necessary component in them winning.
3) The shooters need to shoot. As I pointed out above, the Magic are less likely to get as many open looks off of mismatch because the Lakers have much better frontcourt personnel to use than the Cavs did. Nevertheless, the Magic also created open shots against the Cavs through their crisp, unselfish ball movement. The passing should still be there, which will create solid looks for someone, the problem is that if you rely purely on ball movement you don't get to choose who it is taking the shot. Therefore, Orlando needs all of their shooters to be ready to let it fly. Lewis, Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, Alston...whoever steps on the court needs to have their shooting range measured and be ready to hit at a high clip.
4) Get Kobe into attack mode early and often. If Kobe Bryant scores anywhere near 81 points in a game this Finals, the Lakers are toast. Because the Lakers are at their absolute deadliest when Gasol, Lamar Odom and crew keep the game competitive and Kobe can just be the closer. If Kobe is taking only a handful of shots in the first halves of games but the Lakers are still in it/winning, that's curtains for the Magic. Instead, the Magic need to lock down on all of the other guys. Howard, earn your DPoY by locking up the paint. Everyone else, hound the perimeter shooters and don't let them get on a roll. Make Kobe frustrated that his teammates aren't getting the job done, make him feel like the only way he can get this ring that he's been dreaming about is to shoot and shoot often. The more this series becomes about Kobe on a solo mission, the better tha Magic's chance to hoist the trophy.
5) Calling Pietrus. Calling Lee. You're on duty once again. The Magic's journey through the playoffs this year has been very similar to last year's Celtics run: each team faced the two previous conference finalists in rounds two and three, then faced off with the Lakers for the championship. And like those Celtics, the Magic have already seen their share of perimeter scorers. Thus far, they have faced Andre Iguodala, Ray Allen/Paul Pierce, and LeBron James and of course they have Kobe on the horizon. But whereas the Celtics defended perimeter studs with a team concept, the Magic rely more heavily upon their perimeter defenders. Having Dwight Howard as a back line is a luxury and allows them to take more chances, but ultimately the responsibility to slow down Kobe Bryant in this series will fall to two men: Mickael Pietrus and Courtney Lee.
Pietrus is the bigger and stronger of the two, and the one that drew the lion share of the duty on LeBron. Lee, on the other hand, is quicker and better able to close out on perimeter shooters. Lee is the starter and will begin the game on Kobe, but I expect Pietrus to be the one that spends the most minutes defending Mr. Bryant. His extra size and physicality are more likely to affect Kobe than Lee's quickness, and Pietrus also has a bit of cockiness in him that might just push Kobe's competitive button. And as I said in point 4, the Magic want Kobe in attack mode and trying to show up his defender instead of distributing and letting the game come to him.
So, those are my five keys. The Magic don't have to necessarily have all five of them working every game, but they need a majority of them to happen at least four times in the series. Can it happen? I make no predictions here, because I am too invested to know whether the prediction would be what I want to happen as opposed to what I think will happen. So I'll just say it like this, hopefully in 2 weeks when we look back upon this series, this blog will look prophetic. Hopefully.
