#goodatmath

Math is easy! I never have work from it - AW NO I FORGOT MY CALCULATOR AT HOOOME

Even advanced metrics struggle to accurately gauge just how valuable an elite quarterback is to a particular team. Over the past nine seasons, the Colts have won 13 more games than their points scored and points allowed totals would have predicted, outperforming their Pythagorean expectation in every year during that stretch.** The only team that's come close to that over the past decade, as you might expect, is the Patriots. They have exceeded their Pythagorean expectation in eight of the past 10 seasons, accruing 8.1 extra wins. (Although you might expect that one of the years they came up short was the Matt Cassel season in 2008, that wasn't the case.) ** - A quick sidebar for math nerds about this being statistically significant. The null hypothesis is that chances of the Colts' exceeding their Pythagorean expectation in wins in a given year are a coin flip: 50 percent. The Colts' ability to pull this off in consecutive seasons becomes statistically significant at the 95 percent level after 4.3 seasons, and it becomes significant at the 99 percent level after 6.6 seasons. We're now at nine and counting.