#globalization impact

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Andrew Blasi Jr. is a Washington, D.C. consultant specializing in international trade and policy as director of Crowell and Moring International. One area of current focus for Andrew Blasi Jr. is the novel coronavirus COVID-19 and its impact on the international economy. A recent Harvard Business article brought focus to the potential long-term effects that the current pandemic might have on globalization. The short-term impact has been severe, with public health responses resulting in the most rapid decline in international trade flow in decades. Rough forecasts for 2020 include a foreign direct investment decline of as much as 40 percent and overall merchandise trade declines of one third. In terms of global goods exports, the volume is expected to drop to a level last witnessed more than a decade ago. Despite these pessimistic forecasts, extended trade integration efforts implemented since World War II should ensure that the basic global superstructure remains sound. Barring unforeseen political events, international flows should start to rebound as COVID-19 is brought under control. Essential to this are collaborative efforts already underway by countries and major corporations in ensuring the provision of needed health supplies through international cooperation. Another aspect of the equation is supply chain policies, with cost-focused economics dictating greater international diversification. A major question is whether internal policies in favor of domestic self-sufficiency will outweigh this globalist imperative. In this sense, much of the future recovery arc depends on national security and health concerns of local populations, and whether existing “superpower frictions and fragility” intensify or wane.