FPI outflows exceed 2008 global financial crisis as Fed policy move nears
The pace at which foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are selling holdings is one of the worst the Indian market has seen. An analysis by brokerage ICICI Securities shows the trailing 12-month (TTM) selling tally of FPIs of $36 billion is higher than $28 billion recorded during the 2008 global financial crisis.
Overseas investors have stepped up their selling since October, expecting the US Federal Reserve will make a hawkish pivot due to inflation in the US. The selling accelerated after Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24 and caused a spike in global commodity prices, particularly oil. Since October, FPIs have yanked out nearly $20 billion from domestic stocks, while net-selling for the past one-month is about $9 billion.
However, despite the sharp selling, domestic markets have been relatively resilient. From their peak in October, the benchmark Sensex came off as much as 15 per cent. It currently trades less than 10 per cent off the October high of 61,766.
The impact of FPI selling during the 2008 crisis was worse, causing the benchmark Sensex to crash nearly 70 per cent from highs of around 20,800 in January 2008 to 8,500 in October 2008.
The relatively shallow correction is thanks to sharp inflows from domestic institutional investors (DIIs), who have pumped in $28 billion on a trailing 12-month basis.
As a result, the TTM net institutional outflows at $8.2 billion (FPI + DII flows) is currently lower than the 2008 crisis peak outflow of $8.6 billion, says ICICI Securities. Also, if one adds FPI investment into the primary market (mainly IPOs), TTM outflows drop to $18.3 billion.












