#fliptheleg

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday. Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County. I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere. This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races. Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #5 representing southwest portion of the City of Syracuse as well as portions of Onondaga and Geddes.

At the time of redistricting William Kinne {D} was the legislator representing this portion of Onondaga County. Due to health reasons Kinne did not run for reelection   This allowed the GOP majority on the redistricting commission to really alter this district. It may oner of the  weirder shapes the committee came up with.  And it benefited a committee member, Ryan McMahon. Ryan was the current third district councilor in the City of Syracuse and represented that portion of Syracuse. However, they needed to wed portions of the suburbs of Syracuse to the district to make it more palatable to win and keep this district. So, they clipped off the university portions of the district and added Geddes as well as a pathway through the Town of Onondaga.

This has always been a Democratic enrollment heavy district but has grown dramatically the last few years. Democrats have 46% of the voter enrollment of the district, a strong plurality. Republicans have just 22%, non-enrolled currently outnumber the GOP in the district with 255 of the voters. Split between three towns the district is mostly inside the city with 50% of the voters. Geddes has 40% of the district, and Onondaga just 10%.

As the GOP base has eroded inside the city this district has become more Democratic over time. At the time of inception, the district was Democratic but not overly so. However, Democrats have gained 1197 voters. The GOP enrollment has plummeted losing 992 voters. The non-enrolled has gained modestly with 477 voters. This has turned a purplish district to an overwhelmingly blue one.

The City of Syracuse is driving the Demographic changes in the district. Democrats dominate the city portion with overwhelming Democratic enrollment is driving the partisan lean in the district. The Geddes and Onondaga portions of the district were added to the district to balance it out but even here Democrats have taken leads. The suburban towns have been leaning Democratic and that is demonstrably worse the closer you get to Syracuse. The portions of OCL 15 that stretch into Geddes includes Solvay and the borders of Syracuse. The same is true of the portions of Onondaga.

In 2011 Ryan McMahon ran for the district he helped draw, and miraculously he won. He was able to win his first race against Mark English by 911 votes. Upon winning Ryan McMahon was voted as Chairman of the legislature with all the new legislators supporting the man who helped draw their districts.  In 2013 Ronnie Bell (D) lost to McMahon by 1364 votes as McMahon’s profile grew with his new position. In 2015 Timothy Rudd (D) tried to take a shot at unseating McMahon and lost by 1413 votes. By 2017 McMahon; s stature had grown so much that the Democrats decided not to run anyone against him. However, when Joannie Mahony left her office before the end of her term Ryan McMahon was appointed. fellow GOP legislators to yet another promotion, this time County Executive.  He then Named Miles Bottrill (R) a similar moderate GOP politician who used to e on the city council in hopes of defending the seat. However, Bill Kinne {D} had decided it was time to re enter the political fray and run for his old seat. He won the district by 822 votes and flip the seat to blue in a similar fashion to OCL 7 in 2017. When the popular GOP incumbent left the district the demographics of the district swung back to the Democrats.

The comparative races show a district that almost always swings to the Democrats, with one obvious exception. Considering Ryan McMahon represented this district it is no surprise he posted a 10-point win here when running for County Executive. However, the County Clerk race was a 12-point win for Democrats and Beadnell lost the Comptroller race in this district by an astonish. g 24 points.  In 2020 Democrats dominated this district. Balter won the congressional race by 11 points, Rachel May won the Senate trace by 28 points and not to be outdone Joe Biden won this district by over 34 points.

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #13 which covers the western portion of Onondaga County including Van Buren, Elbridge, and the western part of Camillus.

At the time of redistricting Robert Warner (R) was the legislator representing this portion of Onondaga County.  The GOP majority on the redistricting commission barely altered the district only adding a bit more of conservative parts of Camillus.  It was a safe GOP district for years and remained so, avoiding the weird shapes other districts fell victim to.  The safe GOP nature of the seat though has led to several GOP primaries for the seat.  This unlikely activity is only made possible because the Democrats rarely run candidates here and a slight civil war between the more moderate part of the GOP and conservative members have broken out.

Though we do see some demographic change in this district. the GOP has a sizeable plurality of the district holding 35% of the voting population.  The Democrats have just 29% of the voting population and non-enrolled make up 28%. This district is spread amongst 3 towns. Van Buren dominates the district representing 46% of the voting population.  The western portion of Camillus has 35% of the population, while the entire town of Elbridge only has 19%.

Democrats are gaining in this district, but like OCL 1 in Lysander they started from a large deficit it will be some time before they can catch up.  The GOP added 457 voters, a rarity in the districts we have looked at.  The Democrats though have gained over double that at 990 voters.  The non-enrolled has seen the biggest growth, adding 1303 voters.  The Democrats are gaining in this district, and we could see some significant gains in the future, but it may be a while before Democrats are competitive enrollment wise in the district.

The three Towns of the district all are conservative as well. Van Buren is the dominant in population but the closes t in partisan differences.  The western portion of Camillus though is the more conservative part of this now blue town.  The GOP still dominate this portion of town.  Elbridge is small in population, but its strong GOP lean really sets the tone in this district pushing it from a lean R to a strong R seat.

In 2011 Derick Shepard (R), ran a primary against sitting legislator Robert Warner (R).  He was supported by Ryan McMahon and the more establishment wing of the party.  He won his party and survived a three race against Warner and Jim Scaramuzzino (D).  This was the last time Democrats put up a candidate in this seat, but there was a little bit of intrigue here.  In 2013 and 2015 Derek Shepard ran unopposed and received conservative backing. However, in 2017 Ken Bush (R)challenged Derek Shepard on the GOP line and won the Conservative endorsement as well. The GOP were desperate to keep the seat in their loyal nominees’ hands and waged an expensive campaign with false claims of fraud to keep Bush off the ballot.  The court case was thrown out on appeal and Bush won the GOP primary.  Bush then ran unopposed in 2019.

The comparative races show a district that is as conservative as one would expect, but some signs of hope as well.  In 2019 we saw strong showings for McMahon for county executive and Lisa Dell for County Clerk.  Even Matt Beadnell who lost his comptroller race polled in double digits here. In 2020 congress showed a big loss for Dana Balter as expected.  However, John Mannion performed in single digits in the district.  Joe Biden lost this district by less than 2 points. This means in certain races the non-0enrolled are aligning with the Democrats and creating a formidable block.

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #11 which is in most of the Town of Onondaga and a portion of southeast Camillus

At the time of redistricting Patrick Kilmartin (R), the majority leader of the County Legislature, was the incumbent legislator.  This seat needed to add population as it was one of the smaller suburban seats.   The GOP majority on the redistricting commission decided to leave in the portion of Camillus in the seat but add the rest of the Town of Onondaga taking away from District 12.  Though this district avoided many of the  weird shapes other districts fell victim to, it curiously did not add all of Onondaga.  That is because they needed that portion of Onondaga to be able to connect Geddes to the valley in District 15.  When drawn this gave OCL 11 a decidedly conservative configuration.

The district though has changed significantly as most suburban districts have.  Democrats have grown significantly and have now taken a tiny plurality. Democrats account for 33% of the district while Republicans make up just 31%.  Non-enrolled voters account for 29% of the registered voters coming within a couple hundred voters of overtaking the GOP.  The Camillus portion of this district makes up 23% of the voting population while Onondaga takes up 77%.

This suburban district is showing dramatic change from the last redistricting, Democrats have gained 1,015 voters while the GOP has lost 443. Non-enrolled voters have also seen significant growth gaining 938 voters.  Once again the suburban backlash to 2016 seems to be the catalyst for the growth of Democratic enrollment.  However GOP enrollment has seen a steady decline since 2011.  There is also a curious sharp drop off since last year as Democrats have stayed about even and non-enrolled have grown.  This indicates a significant shedding of the party label on the R side of the electorate.

The Camillus portion of the district may be smaller, but it is driving the Democratic lean of the district.  In the Camillus portion Democrats outnumber the GOP by nearly 200 voters and the non-enrolled is less than 100 voters behind.  The Onondaga portion of the district is more even.  Democrats only outnumber the GOP by 5 voters.  The non-enrolled in Onondaga are still several 300 voters behind.  

In 2011 Patrick Kilmartin (R) was challenged by Buffy Quinn (D). The newly formed district worked in the way it was designed by nearly doubling up the margin.  Kilmartin won that race by 1285 votes.  Maggie Mahoney (D) than challenged Kilmartin in 2013 and nearly halved that margin losing by only 677 votes.  The Democrats did not offer a candidate in 2015 and then Kilmartin decided not to run for re-election to become a Town Justice.  In 2017 in an open seat John McBride (R) ran against Chuck Keller (D) and the margin closed to just 408 votes.  In 2019 running as an incumbent McBride bested Irene Workman (D) by 621 votes. In both McBride races though, the Democrats won vote totals on the Democratic Line versus the GOP line, and it was minor parties that brought McBride home.  McBride was also working for then Senator DeFrancisco and Antonacci in his races and benefited from those connections.

The comparative races are our show a district that performs better for the GOP that county averages, but if you look at just suburban districts it is one of the better performers for Democrats.  In 2019 Ryan McMahon won handedly in the district by close to 13 points, better than his overall county win margin but much less than his totals in another suburban district.  The same story for Lisa Dell for County Clerk who won by 16 points, in a rare performance better than McMahon.  Matt Beadnell only won this town by less than 3 points, showing the district rejects ultra-conservative Trumpian candidates.   In 2020 Balter lost this district over 14 points with nearly 5 points on the WFP line, however again it performed better than another suburban district.  John Mannion won a sizable victory for State Senate here winning by nearly 6 points.  President Biden won this district by over 12 points.  This shows this district to be a swing district and ripe for a Democrat to perform well in.

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #10 wholly contained in the middle to Southeast corner of the Town of Manlius.

This was virtually unchanged from the 2010 version of the seat.  At the time of redistricting Kevin Holmquist (R) was the incumbent legislator.  Kevin was a former Minoa village board member, so it made sense that the only change the GOP majority on the redistricting commission made was to add more of the village of Minoa into the district avoiding the weird shapes many other districts fell victim to.  They also added portions of the village of Manlius into the district as well so it was completely in the district.  The district was already a solid GOP district and it didn’t need a shape change to give the GOP an advantage.

The district though has changed significantly.  Once a solid red district, Democrats have now taken a sizeable plurality. Democrats account for 36% of the district while Republicans make up just 29%.  Non-enrolled voters account for 28% of the registered voters coming within a couple hundred voters of overtaking the GOP.  Since this district is totally inside one town we have to look at other ways to glean information.  Luckily this district is the only one with 3 individual villages inside of it.  The villages of Fayetteville (15%), Minoa (10%), & Manlius (15%) make up 10% of the voting population of the district.

There is no district that has changed as drastically from 2011 as this one.  The 10th district, like Manlius as a whole, is the perfect example of what has happened to the suburbs nationwide as Democrats have grown in strength and popularity during the Trump era.  Democrats have gained 1,748 voters since 2011 while the GOP has lost 867 voters.  The non-enrolled has gained the most though by increasing its population by 1,153 voters.  This has flipped this district on its head.  Where the GOP once had a 1,015 voter lead, the Democrats now hold an amazing 1600 voter lead.  

The three villages are as a whole are slightly more Democratic than the rest of this district.  The village voters are 37.9% Democratic where the rest of the district is just 35.4% Democratic.  Still even inside the villages there are differences with Fayetteville being the most Democratic at 40.6%, followed by the village of Manlius at 38.4%, and village of Minoa 33.1%.  This makes Minoa one of the least Democratic areas in the district, though all 4 areas we are looking at lean Democratic like the district as a whole.

In 2011 Kevin Holmquist (R) was challenged by Gwen Mannion (D). It was a hard fought race however Holmquist survived by 578 votes.  The Democrats than took two cycles off not challenging this seat in 2013 and 2015. However in the wake of the 2016 election the Manlius Democratic committee had a resurgence of new activists working along with established committee members.  This resulted in full town slates including on the County legislative level.  Mark Matt (D) ran in 2017 & 2019 against Kevin Holmquist (R).  Though Matt lost by 141 and 340 votes they were within the absentee ballot marker.  Another indication of how well the Democrats were performing was winning town wide seats in 2017 and 2019.  Finally in all three contested races the Democrats ran even or better than the GOP on straight up party line comparison with the 3rd party votes putting Holmquist over the top.

The comparative races are our best indication of a district primed for movement.  Though in 2019 it did support Ryan McMahon it was only by a little over 3 points.  The county Clerk race was virtually tied at .24% difference, and Masterpole really performed well here beating Beadnell by over 6 points.  All 3 races performed better than the county averages.  The Democrats really cleaned up in this district in 2020 with Balter almost having a 2 point lead on Katko making this one of her better suburban districts.  John Mannion trounced Angie Renna by over 14 points, and President Biden almost had a 26 point lead over Trump.  The residents of this district are consistently voting Democrat by larger shares than the county as a whole.  

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #9 representing the mostly the Eastwood and Lincoln Hill portions of Syracuse but stretching into the university and East side along with a few blocks of Sedgewick.

This seat went under dramatic changes in 2010 as it was basically combined with the old OCL 7 and drawn in a way to consolidate Democrats under one representative.  Both Sam Laguzza (D) in neighboring OCL 16 and Tom Buckle (D) in neighboring OCL 7 were not running for re-election.  This along with the loss of 2 OCL seats gave the GOP majority on the redistricting commission another opportunity to stack and crack Democrats into one district using weird shapes to re-draw districts to benefit a GOP supermajority. They took portions of OCL 7 and OCL 16 and packed them into the new OCL 9 making a very safe Democratic seat and even made sure OCL 9 extended a few blocks to encompass the house of OCL minority leader Mark Stanczyk (D).  This assured a strong incumbent was relegated to a safe Democrat seat allowing Danny Liedka (R) to run for the newly drawn OCL 7 and win.

The redistricting created a legislative district that is overwhelmingly Democratic. Democrats account for 50% of the district while Republicans make up just 17%.  Non-enrolled voters account for 27% of the registered voters outnumbering the GOP voters by quite a bit.  This district is one of only two that is wholly inside the City of Syracuse.  It is mostly dominated by Eastwood (Ward 5 47%) and Lincoln Hill (Ward 6 27%) but has portions of the Northside (Wards 1 4%, Ward 3 5%, Ward 4 5%) and the University (Ward 16 3%), and the east side (Ward 17 4%).

Like the City of Syracuse that encompasses it his Democratic district has only gotten more Democratic over time.  Since 2011 the Democrats have gained 229 voters and the GOP has lost 466 voters.  Non-enrolled has grown by 326 voters.  All three populations have seen a decrease in enrollment since the 23020 election. This is because urban cores usually lost voters after a Presidential election when lists are cleaned up.  This is especially so with university districts where graduating students move and incoming freshman may not decide to enroll in their new community right away.

There really isn’t a GOP friendly portion of the district, though Eastwood (Ward 5) is less dominated by Democrats than the other portions of the district.  There are 230 percent more Democrats than GOP in Ward 5, compare with 370 percent in Ward 6, and  403 percent more Democrats in the rest of the district   So Eastwood dominates the district in population and is slightly more conservative than the rest of the district.

In 2011 Bob Andrews ® challenged incumbent Mark Stanczyk (D) and lost by 763 votes.  The district was drawn to be Democratic and performed that way.  Mark Stanczyk then took a job with Onondaga County in 2014 and Bob Andrews was selected by then County Executive Joannie Mahoney to fill his vacancy.  It was short lived though.  Even the power of incumbency and name recognition could not save this seat for the GOP.  Peggy Chase (D) defeated Andrews by 186 votes.  Two years later in a re-match Peggy Chase successfully defended her seat winning by 292 votes.  The GOP did not run a candidate in 2017 and in 2019 in a three way race Chase won over Kevin Kuehner (R) by 1461 votes.  

The comparative races also show a district that is dominated by Democrats.  In 2019 the district supported the Democrat in all 3 races with a 13-point margin for Malevenda for County Executive, over 20-point margin for Kolinski for County Clerk, and an outstanding over 29-point margin for Marty Masterpole in the Comptroller race.  In 2020 Dana Balter solidly beat Katko by over 27 points without even looking at the votes on the WFP line for another candidate who was left on the ballot due to an error.  Rachel May dominated the NY Senate run winning over 37 points.  Biden saw an overwhelming support with an over 44-point margin of victory.    

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #6.

In 2011 this seat was represented by James Rinehart the chairman of the state legislature.  This seat was seen as a forever GOP controlled district comprising of some of the more conservative parts of the county.  The GOP majority on the redistricting commission only added a few eds in Camillus to the district as All districts needed to pick up some population, but generally it avoided the weird shapes other districts were forced into. After redistricting was done Rinehart did not run for re-election.

OCL 6 is still generally seen as one of the more GOP dominated districts, registration wise, in Onondaga County. Republicans account for 36% of the district while Democrats make up just 30%.  Non-enrolled voters account for 26% of the registered voters. There are 5 towns represented in OCL 6 making it one of the larger land mass districts in the county.  A portion of Camillus makes up the plurality of the district at 34% and the town of Skaneateles being the other major population center at 28%.  Marcellus at 23%, Otisco at 9% and Spafford at 6% make up the rest of the district.

While this has been seen as a mostly republican district, Democrats have been making steady gains in this district.  Democrats have gained 989 voters since the last redistricting while the GOP has lost 553 voters,  Of course the non-enrolled has grown as well gaining  764 voters.  Though Democrats started from a pretty bad place registration wise the changing demographics of the suburbs have given Democrats a chance in this once blood red district.

We can see that the Camillus portion of the district is the Democratic portion of not just OCL 6 but the town of Camillus itself.  Though Camillus voter registration is driving some of the tightening in the district, we noted earlier that the towns of Skaneateles and Marcellus have seen a tightening of the registrations there.  This means that the general gop lean of the district is starting to be chipped away at. Otisco and Spafford remain pretty republican but are also very small towns and dwarfed by the bigger portions in the district.

Michael Plochocki succeeded James Rinehart by winning a closer than expected election in 2011.  Toby Shelley came within a few hundred votes of defeating him and flipping this district.  In 2013 the Democrats let Plochocki go unchallenged.  In 2015 Plochocki easily won re-election against Susan Scheurman.  In 2017 Joe Paduda mounted a stronger challenge significantly doing better than Democrats had done in a while.  As is the custom with County Government when a county lawmaker is challenged electorally, the County Executive hires them to a top paying county job, in this case a Plochocki assumed created position with the County Attorney.  Current representative Julie Abbott Keenan was named to replace Plochocki and easily beat Susan Scheurman in 2019 in her 2nd run for office.

The comparative aces show a district that bucks its partisan registration lean.  While in 2019 the distractive supported the GOP by double digits in the County Executive Race and County Clerk, there was a huge drop off for Matt Beadnell for County Comptroller.  In 2020 this GOP dominant district voted for John Mannion for Senate by a razor thin 2% and Joe Biden by over 9 points.  However, for congress John Katko won re-election by 15 points.  This indicates the non-enrolled voters are swing voters and reject more Trumpian conservative members.  This gives the Democrats an opportunity in OCL 6 if they can take advantage of the changing demographics as well as the swing nature of the district

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week start my #Fliptheleg series looking at each of the 17 Onondaga County Legislative races.  Today I look at Onondaga County Legislative seat #1

In 2011 Richard Lesniak, the GOP Floor leader, occupied OCL 1. Once the GOP majority on the redistricting commission announced its redistricting plan, Lesniak decided to not run for re-election and Brian May (R) has served on the legislature ever since. OCL 1 It covers all of the Town of Lysander and a small portion of Clay. OCL 1 was not changed drastically in the redistricting, unlike many other districts that had weird shapes.  Besides extending a small protrusion into western Clay, the district has basically the same borders.

OCL 1 has a strong GOP plurality to it.  36% of registered voters are Republican while 31% are Democrat and 26% non-enrolled.  This domination has led many to believe this is a safe GOP seat. For as long as anyone can remember this seat has been held by the GOP.  Lysander also dominates the district making up 85% of the voter population with 15% in the small portion of Clay that is included in the district.

Democrats are gaining on the GOP in this district.  As we saw from my previous Wonky Wednesday:  The Town of Lysander the town is undergoing changes too, but has traditionally been dominated by the GOP.   The pace of the Democratic growth since 2011 has been about the same pace as the county as well.  On top of that, since the election, there seems to be a definite shift out of the GOP into the non-enrolled category as well as increase enrollments by Democrats.  However, Democrats started in a large deficit in this Leg district, and it will take many more years for demographic gains alone to catch up.

The Lysander portion of the district not only dominates in overall population, but it also dominates the partisan trends of the district as well.  While the Clay portion of the district is more Demographic, their vote is diluted by the overwhelmingly GOP portion of Lysander.  It is unlikely this was done on purpose in the redistricting as Lysander alone does not have enough voters in 2010 to warrant their own district and has traditionally had that same portion of Clay.  That being said it is a dilution for the Democratic votes in the western portion of Clay.

Since Brian May was nominated to replace Richard Lesniak in 2011, he ran unopposed all but one election.  As we will see in upcoming articles, this is all too often the case with some of these districts drawn to be dominated by the GOP.  In 2019 Justin Neal ran on the Democratic and WFP lines to give Brian May his first real challenge.  May won in convincing fashion but has since broken a pledge to form an independent redistricting commission as well as other controversial votes.  Justin Neal is challenging him again in 2021 in hopes of taking advantage of the changing demographics as well as banking on name recognition he gained in the first run.  

Neal does have a glimmer of hope in this district.  While a GOP heavy district it tends to reject the more Trumpian conservative candidates.  As we look at our 5 comparative races there is reason for some cautious optimism.  In 2019 the district supported Ryan McMahon for County Executive and Lisa Dell for County Clerk, however Matt Beadnell lagged.  The biggest glimmer of hope is from the last election.  While Congress was the typical blowout, Senator Mannion came within 1.5% of Angie Renna and President Biden won this district by 4.5%.  Neal will have to appeal to the Presidential voters as well as convince non-enrolled that May is out of touch with the changing ideology of the district.