#fl-06

There were large reductions in the winning margins by Republican candidates in FL-01 and FL-06 compared to last November's margins. Both these districts are ruby red and easily carried by Trump last year.

In FL-01 the percentage of votes by the Republican fell from 66.0% to 56.9 % – a slippage of 9.1%.

In FL-06 the percentage of votes by the Republican fell from 66.5% to 56.7 % – a fall of 9.8%.

Republicans would be in big trouble in the 2026 midterms if they slipped by similar margins across the US.

There are 21 Republican held seats which would flip to the Democrats if the GOP 2024 margins uniformly fell by at least 9 points in 2026. That would mirror the GOP plunge in Florida last Tuesday.

AK-01 AZ-01 AZ-02 AZ-06 CA-22 CA-41 CO-03 CO-08 IA-01 IA-03 MI-07 MI-10 MT-01 NE-02 NJ-07 NY-17 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 VA-02 WI-03

^^^ Over half of those seats were decided by margins of 5% or less. Source.

So if House Republicans continue to back Trump's unpopular policies, a Democratic House is a good bet – provided we put strong effort into winning those seats.

Alex Henderson at AlterNet:

Tlaib and Omar are both Muslims, and Randy Fine — a far-right MAGA Republican who is running in a special election in Florida's 6th U.S. Congressional District — singled them out in a threatening November 26 post on X, formerly Twitter. Fine posted, "The 'Hebrew Hammer' is coming. @RashidaTlaib and @IlhanMN might consider leaving before I get there. #BombsAway." The New Republic's Robert McCoy notes that attacking Muslims is nothing new for Fine. McCoy explains, "Tlaib and Omar are two of just three Muslim members of Congress, and the only two Muslim women. Fine has a history of using demeaning rhetoric against Muslims and Palestinians and trafficking in Islamophobic tropes. In the past, he has said that 'we have a Muslim problem in America' and that 'while many Muslims are not terrorists, they are the radicals, not the mainstream.'"

Emily Singer at Daily Kos:

Voters head to the polls Tuesday for a state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin and two congressional special elections in Florida, in what will be the first real test of the brewing backlash to President Donald Trump and co-President Elon Musk's destructive agenda. A handful of special elections in state legislative races have already shown that running against the chaos and cruelty that Trump and Musk have inflicted upon the country could be a winning message for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections. Democrats flipped two Republican-held state Senate seats in Pennsylvania and Iowa, and have overperformed in other state legislative contests—results that portend good things for Democrats next November. But the three elections on Tuesday are the most meaningful races to take place since Trump took office and gave Musk a nebulous and powerful role, in which he's ignored funding bills passed by Congress to shut down federal agencies, indiscriminately fired thousands of federal employees, and broken essential government services like Social Security—none of which are popular with voters. In fact, Republican lawmakers brave enough to hold town halls are being met with angry constituents who are demanding that the GOP stands up to Musk’s cuts. The outcome of Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court election may be the biggest indicator of how Musk’s role could impact Republicans in the 2026 midterms. Musk made himself a major issue in that race by spending millions of his vast wealth to try to buy the race for conservative nominee Brad Schimel, who is trying to defeat liberal nominee Susan Crawford and flip the court’s balance back to Republicans. If Schimel wins, Wisconsinites could quickly lose their right to abortion and see their voting rights restricted. It would also allow Republicans to get back their gerrymandered legislative maps that previously made it impossible for Democrats to win control despite the state’s competitive bent. Musk held a rally in the state on Sunday, in which he handed out two $1 million prizes to voters in a shady scheme that Democrats alleged violates the law.  Democrats, meanwhile, have run ads tying Schimel to Musk and even flew a plane over Milwaukee on Thursday that said, “Go Home Elon. Vote Susan.” Crawford is the favorite heading into Tuesday’s election, according to the election handicapping outlet Split Ticket, which found that Republicans are having a turnout problem in the state. The biggest fear for Republicans is Florida's 6th Congressional District. Though Trump won the district by more than 30 percentage points in 2024, Republican nominee Randy Fine is struggling. The seat is vacant because Trump plucked former Rep. Mike Waltz to serve as his national security adviser, where he's created a massive scandal for the Trump administration by sharing classified information over an unsecured messaging app. Two recent polls show a very tight race. One showed Fine leading Democratic nominee Josh Weil by just 4 points, while another had Fine down 3 points. Weil has run ads attacking Fine for calling Social Security a “Ponzi scheme”—the same language Musk has used to try to justify making cuts to the popular and vital social safety net program. [...] There is also a special election in Florida’s 1st District, which is vacant because former Rep. Matt Gaetz declined to take his seat after his nomination to be Trump’s attorney general went up in flames. But that race is not expected to be as close. Trump won the district by 37 points in November.