#fl-01

There were large reductions in the winning margins by Republican candidates in FL-01 and FL-06 compared to last November's margins. Both these districts are ruby red and easily carried by Trump last year.

In FL-01 the percentage of votes by the Republican fell from 66.0% to 56.9 % – a slippage of 9.1%.

In FL-06 the percentage of votes by the Republican fell from 66.5% to 56.7 % – a fall of 9.8%.

Republicans would be in big trouble in the 2026 midterms if they slipped by similar margins across the US.

There are 21 Republican held seats which would flip to the Democrats if the GOP 2024 margins uniformly fell by at least 9 points in 2026. That would mirror the GOP plunge in Florida last Tuesday.

AK-01 AZ-01 AZ-02 AZ-06 CA-22 CA-41 CO-03 CO-08 IA-01 IA-03 MI-07 MI-10 MT-01 NE-02 NJ-07 NY-17 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 VA-02 WI-03

^^^ Over half of those seats were decided by margins of 5% or less. Source.

So if House Republicans continue to back Trump's unpopular policies, a Democratic House is a good bet – provided we put strong effort into winning those seats.

Special elections will be held this spring for vacant Florida Senate and House seats representing Brevard County.

The deadline to register to vote in the Republican primaries is March 3. The deadline to register for the general election is May 12.

Vote-by-mail ballots must be requested for these special elections, even if voters previously received them for the 2024 elections.

Early in-person voting for the Aprll 1 primaries will take place from March 22 to March 29. Early voting for the June 10 general election will be held from May 31 to June 7.

With the candidate lineup now set, Brevard County voters face a few deadlines in advance of special elections for soon-to-be-vacant Florida Senate and House seat.

Brevard County Supervisor of Elections Tim Bobanic says many voters who like to cast their ballots by mail are not aware that they have to again request that vote-by-mail ballots be sent to them for the 2025-26 election cycle.

“At the end of 2024, my office had more than 110,280 mail ballot requests on file, but as of Jan. 1 of this year, those requests all expired," Bobanic said.

Elektronika - FL-01 Flanger

Emily Singer at Daily Kos:

Voters head to the polls Tuesday for a state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin and two congressional special elections in Florida, in what will be the first real test of the brewing backlash to President Donald Trump and co-President Elon Musk's destructive agenda. A handful of special elections in state legislative races have already shown that running against the chaos and cruelty that Trump and Musk have inflicted upon the country could be a winning message for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections. Democrats flipped two Republican-held state Senate seats in Pennsylvania and Iowa, and have overperformed in other state legislative contests—results that portend good things for Democrats next November. But the three elections on Tuesday are the most meaningful races to take place since Trump took office and gave Musk a nebulous and powerful role, in which he's ignored funding bills passed by Congress to shut down federal agencies, indiscriminately fired thousands of federal employees, and broken essential government services like Social Security—none of which are popular with voters. In fact, Republican lawmakers brave enough to hold town halls are being met with angry constituents who are demanding that the GOP stands up to Musk’s cuts. The outcome of Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court election may be the biggest indicator of how Musk’s role could impact Republicans in the 2026 midterms. Musk made himself a major issue in that race by spending millions of his vast wealth to try to buy the race for conservative nominee Brad Schimel, who is trying to defeat liberal nominee Susan Crawford and flip the court’s balance back to Republicans. If Schimel wins, Wisconsinites could quickly lose their right to abortion and see their voting rights restricted. It would also allow Republicans to get back their gerrymandered legislative maps that previously made it impossible for Democrats to win control despite the state’s competitive bent. Musk held a rally in the state on Sunday, in which he handed out two $1 million prizes to voters in a shady scheme that Democrats alleged violates the law.  Democrats, meanwhile, have run ads tying Schimel to Musk and even flew a plane over Milwaukee on Thursday that said, “Go Home Elon. Vote Susan.” Crawford is the favorite heading into Tuesday’s election, according to the election handicapping outlet Split Ticket, which found that Republicans are having a turnout problem in the state. The biggest fear for Republicans is Florida's 6th Congressional District. Though Trump won the district by more than 30 percentage points in 2024, Republican nominee Randy Fine is struggling. The seat is vacant because Trump plucked former Rep. Mike Waltz to serve as his national security adviser, where he's created a massive scandal for the Trump administration by sharing classified information over an unsecured messaging app. Two recent polls show a very tight race. One showed Fine leading Democratic nominee Josh Weil by just 4 points, while another had Fine down 3 points. Weil has run ads attacking Fine for calling Social Security a “Ponzi scheme”—the same language Musk has used to try to justify making cuts to the popular and vital social safety net program. [...] There is also a special election in Florida’s 1st District, which is vacant because former Rep. Matt Gaetz declined to take his seat after his nomination to be Trump’s attorney general went up in flames. But that race is not expected to be as close. Trump won the district by 37 points in November.

It's true that MAGA, far right fundamentalists, homophobes, broligarchs, and other Trump lickspittles never worry about their blatant hypocrisy. But it's still a lot of fun to expose it.

A toxic Florida homophobe named Aaron Craig Gleason who writes for rightwing propaganda outlets like The Federalist and The Daily Wire has been charged with child molestation.

A right-wing film critic who lauded a dubious film about sex trafficking — calling it a "call to action" — was arrested and charged with molesting a child, court records showed. Aaron Craig Gleason, 39, of Estero, Florida, was arrested last week and jailed in the state on a charge of lewd and lascivious behavior: molestation of a victim less than 12 years of age by an offender 18 years of age or older. He was released on $75,000 bond.

There's an apparent typo in that last paragraph. According to his rap sheet. Gleason lives in Mary Esther, FL rather than Estero, FL. Mary Esther is in Okaloosa County where he was arrested.

At least fellow Floridian Matt Gaetz sticks to high schoolers. Gleason apparently has a thirst for tweens. Curiously, Gleason lives in Gaetz's old congressional district.

Given Gleason's occupation, he had no shortage of potential victims.

he taught Bible at Rocky Bayou Christian School and was a middle school soccer coach.

ICYMI, Matt Gaetz has altered his appearance in such a way that he's making Donald Trump look semi-normal by comparison.

Florida U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz appears to have radically changed up his skincare routine leading up to his speech at the 2024 Republican National Convention on Wednesday. No sooner had Gaetz stepped up to the podium than social media users had their eyeballs virtually seared by the Congressman's Everest-arched eyebrows and shiny orange glow. "Why does Matt Gaetz look like a sleep paralysis demon?" asked one.

Maybe he's trying to prevent all those high school girls he slept with from positively identifying him in a lineup.

Another possibility is that he is trying out for a spot in a new Star Trek series in which he'd portray somebody from a species which is the political equivalent of the business-obsessed Ferengi.

Perhaps it's really Arya Stark using one of the skills she learned from the Faceless Men to infiltrate the GOP convention.

Or maybe it's not even a real person but instead a low budget AI version of Gaetz.

This change of face made Know Your Meme.

Matt Gaetz's Face At 2024 RNC

I'd love to know whether this makeover has impressed his constituents in FL-01.