#expectedgoals

Arsenal claimed a fine 3-2 win over Everton, helping them move up to ninth in the Premier League table. It was a vital victory for the Gunners with Champions League hopes still hanging around, especially since Manchester City’s UEFA sanctions were revealed. Eddie Nketiah scored Arsenal’s first goalGetty Images - GettySince Mikel Arteta has gone into the Emirates, losing has become a thing of the past. The only problem is that winning had too. Prior to the triumphs over Newcastle and Everton they had drawn four consecutive matches in the Premier League. And statistically, Arsenal are actually overperforming when you take into account the ‘expected goals’ metric. According to UnderStat, against Everton their shots on goal only had a combined value of 1.35 goals, while the Toffees’ strikes had a value of 1.79, which would have turned the result on its head. WHAT IS EXPECTED GOALS? * Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match. * Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value. * The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot. * The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match. But how would the Premier League look if we considered these results instead of the real ones? Here attalkSPORT.com, we’re always keeping an eye onUnderstat.comto get an alternative look at the top-flight. Find out how the stats suggest the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below according to expected goals… *Liverpool and West Ham have played one game less than everyone else 20. Newcastle – Real position = 14 Real points = 31 | Expected points = 17.32 19. West Ham – Real position = 18* Real points = 24 | Expected points = 21.20 18. Aston Villa – Real position = 17 Real points = 25 | Expected points = 22.37 Dean Smith’s Aston Villa are just one point above the relegation zoneGetty Images - Getty17. Norwich – Real position = 20 Real points = 18 | Expected points = 24.52 16. Crystal Palace – Real position = 13 Real points = 33 | Expected points = 27.22 15. Bournemouth – Real position = 16 Real points = 26 | Expected points = 27.41 Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth are struggling right nowGetty Images - Getty14. Watford – Real position = 19 Real points = 24 | Expected points = 33.67 13. Burnley – Real position = 10 Real points = 37 | Expected points = 35.68 12. Arsenal – Real position = 9 Real points = 37 | Expected points = 36.66 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored twice against EvertonGetty Images - Getty11. Brighton – Real position = 15 Real points = 28 | Expected points = 37 10. Tottenham – Real position = 6 Real points = 40 | Expected points = 37.24 9. Sheffield United – Real position = 7 Real points = 40 | Expected points = 38.52 8. Southampton – Real position = 12 Real points = 34 | Expected points = 40.30 7. Everton – Real position = 11 Real points = 36 | Expected points = 42.57 Dominic Calvert-Lewin opened the scoring in the first minute for EvertonGetty Images - Getty6. Leicester – Real position = 3 Real points = 50 | Expected points = 42.93 5. Wolves – Real position = 8 Real points = 39 | Expected points = 45.34 4. Manchester United – Real position = 5 Real points = 41 | Expected points = 49.05 Anthony Martial scored the second for Man UnitedGetty Images - Getty3. Chelsea – Real position = 4 Real points = 44 | Expected points = 51.29 2. Liverpool – Real position = 1* Real points = 76 | Expected points = 55.12 1. Man City – Real position = 2 Real points = 57 | Expected points = 62.75 #PremierLeague #ExpectedGoals #LeagueTable

"They had 3 of the 4 largest xGR outperformances in the past 3 seasons in Germany. I made the case in this article that they weren’t just a below-average team getting incredibly lucky, they were actually a good team being shorted by a model that didn’t cover what they did very well (mainly pressure opponents while shooting and then last season using a patient, multiple attack to get higher quality shots). [..] Michael Caley hinted he thought the tactic had been collectively found out and that certain tactics could beat xG for a little bit before falling back to their underlying shot numbers. [..] In general the tone seemed to be, well this team has been lucky for so long, that now it is evening out. The insinuation being their true talent level during past seasons was reflected by the xG models and not the results on the field. I think in general this is a dangerous assumption to make and disagree in this case as well. xG hasn’t nailed enough outliers for me to be confident in proclaiming teams drastically lucky or unlucky based only on xG rate. [..] There are clear indicators that this year, the performance is significantly worse compared to years past. [..] Last year they were the best team in the Bundesliga when it came to completing passes in dangerous areas. They were 2 standard deviations above average in deep areas. This year that is not close to the case. [..] The big problem comes making the final leap, from the “attacking” area into the “opp box” area. Last year nearly twice as many completions were played into this area. [..] When you can’t get the ball deep, you can’t get the number of options needed forward that allows you to have a multifaceted attack. If you want to get open shots playing at a deliberate pace, it’s not going to happen as often with hoofing long balls to a single striker. Gladbach aren’t getting as many different players up the field. Players like Xhaka, Patrick Herrmann, and Raffael are simply possessing the ball much less close to goal. [..] last year, I concluded that their strategy of conceding the middle of the pitch and focusing on congesting their own box led to forcing opponents into more harried shots than normal and cutting off passing lanes that could lead to a better shot. [..] the pressure they have always applied in the final 25 yards, increasing the closer you get to goal, is simply not there so far this season. [..] soccer is much too complex a game to have supreme confidence about basically anything."