Estimated Size of Quiver (ESoQ) Update
Now that the Predictor factors in Maternal Age, it's about time for a ESoQ Update. This Post gives the NonâAge Adjusted ESoQ (NonâAAESoQ) and the Age Adjusted ESoQ (AAESoQ), so it's easy to see the new variable's impact.
Without further ado, in alphabetical order...
Zach + Whitney NonâAge Adjusted ESoQ (NonâAAESoQ) is 10. Age Adjusted ESoQ (AAESoQ) is 9 (1 Less).
Michaela + Brandon Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 0 (Due to Fertility Struggle).
Erin + Chad Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 5 (Due to Erin's Ovarian Surgery).
Lawson + Tiffany NonâAAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 11 (1 Less).
Nathan + Esther NonâAAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 11 (1 Less).
Alyssa + John NonâAAESoQ is 16. AAESoQ is 14 (2 Less).
Tori + Bobby NonâAAESoQ is 19. AAESoQ is 17 (2 Less).
Trace + Lydia NonâAAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 10 (1 Less).
Carlin + Evan NonâAAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 10 (2 Less).
Josie + Kelton NonâAAESoQ is 16. AAESoQ is 14 (2 Less).
Katie + Travis NonâAAESoQ is 15. AAESoQ is 13 (2 Less).
Jackson + Emerson NonâAAESoQ is 14. AAESoQ is 13 (1 Less).
Younger Males NonâAAESoQ is 13 Each. AAESoQ is 12 Each (1 Less Each).
Younger Females NonâAAESoQ is 17 Each. AAESoQ is 15 Each (2 Less Each).
Based on NonâAAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 245. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 220 Grands (25 Less), or 11.6 Per Couple, on average.
...are no longer an active Predictor Family. Getting data for them has been harder and harder, and they've recently made it clear that many of the couples won't be sharing family updates.
Kendra + Joe NonâAAESoQ is 15. AAESoQ is 14 (1 Less).
Lauren NonâAAESoQ is 8. AAESoQ is 7 (1 Less).
Younger Males NonâAAESoQ is 10 Each. AAESoQ is 9 Each (1 Less Each).
Younger Females NonâAAESoQ is 10 Each. AAESoQ is 9 (1 Less Each).
Based on NonâAAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 93. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 84 Grands (9 Less), a rate of 9.3 Per Couple.
Josh + Anna Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 7 (Due to Josh's Incarceration).
Jana NonâAAESoQ is 6. AAESoQ is 5 (1 Less).
John + Abbie NonâAAESoQ is 5. AAESoQ is 5 (No Change).
Jill + Derick Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 3 (Due to Family Planning / Birth Control). If No Family Planning... NonâAAESoQ is 9. AAESoQ is 8 (1 Less).
Jessa + Ben NonâAAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 10 (2 Less).
Jinger + Jeremy NonâAAESoQ is 9. AAESoQ is 8 (1 Less).
Joe + Kendra NonâAAESoQ is 15. AAESoQ is 14 (1 Less).
Josiah + Lauren NonâAAESoQ is 8. AAESoQ is 7 (1 Less).
Joy + Austin NonâAAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 10 (2 Less).
Jed + Katey NonâAAESoQ is 10. AAESoQ is 9 (1 Less).
Jer + Hannah Based on Duggar Family Data, NonâAAESoQ is 14 and AAESoQ is 12 (2 Less).
Jason NonâAAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 10 (1 Less).
James NonâAAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 11 (1 Less).
Justin + Claire NonâAAESoQ is 8. AAESoQ is 7 (1 Less).
Younger Males NonâAAESoQ is 12 Each. AAESoQ is 11 Each (1 Less Each).
Younger Females NonâAAESoQ is 14 Each. AAESoQ is 13 Each (1 Less Each).
Based on NonâAAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 200. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 180 Grands (20 Less), a rate of 9.5 Per Couple.
Esther + John Shrader NonâAAESoQ is 14. AAESoQ is 14 (No Change).
Priscilla + David Waller NonâAAESoQ is 10. AAESoQ is 10 (No Change).
Anna + Josh Duggar Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 7 (Due to Josh's Incarceration).
Nathan + Nurie (Rodrigues) NonâAAESoQ is 17. AAESoQ is 15 (2 Less).
David + Hannah (Reber) NonâAAESoQ is 12. AAESoQ is 11 (1 Less).
Based on NonâAAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands [from the Quiverfull Kellers] is 60. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 57 Grands (3 Less)âor, a rate of 11.4 Per Couple.
Nathan + Melanie Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 7 (Fertility CutâOff Already Reached).
Chris + Anna Marie Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 6 (Due to Anna Marie's Cancer).
Sarah + Kory Regardless of Age Adjustment, ESoQ is 0 (Fertility CutâOff is January 24th).
Joseph + Elissa NonâAAESoQ is 7. AAESoQ is 7 (No Change).
John + Chelsy NonâAAESoQ is 10. AAESoQ is 9 (1 Less).
Anna Elizabeth NonâAAESoQ is 6. AAESoQ is 5 (1 Less).
Jesse + Anna Patrice NonâAAESoQ is 7. AAESoQ is 6 (1 Less).
Mary Carol NonâAAESoQ is 7. AAESoQ is 7 (No Change).
NoteâLike the Bontragers, several of the Maxwell Couples are very lowâprofile; however, they remain a Predictor Family, for now.
Based on NonâAAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 50. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 47 Grands (3 Less). Taking the average, that's 5.9 Per Couple (The Lowest Rate Among Predictor Families).
Nurie + Nathan NonâAAESoQ is 17. AAESoQ is 15 (2 Less).
Timothy David NonâAAESoQ is 14. AAESoQ is 12 (2 Less).
Kaylee + Jonathan NonâAAESoQ is 13. AAESoQ is 12 (1 Less).
Younger Males NonâAAESoQ is 14 Each. AAESoQ is 12 Each (2 Less Each).
Younger Females NonâAAESoQ is 13 Each. AAESoQ is 12 Each (1 Less Each).
Based on NonâAAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 177. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 158 Grands (19 Less)âan impressively high rate of 12.2 Per Couple (The Highest of The Predictor Families).
Rachel + Alan Busenitz NonâAAESoQ is 8. AAESoQ is 7 (1 Less).
Ruth + Ryan Bourlier NonâAAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 10 (1 Less).
Josiah + Abi (Rehm) NonâAAESoQ is 6. AAESoQ is 6 (No Change).
Bethany + Daniel Beasley NonâAAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 10 (1 Less).
Andrew + Kori (Knuth) NonâAAESoQ is 5. AAESoQ is 5 (No Change).
Elizabeth Joy NonâAAESoQ is 6. AAESoQ is 5 (1 Less).
Matt + Michelle (Kingery) NonâAAESoQ is 7. AAESoQ is 6 (1 Less).
Stephen Gerald NonâAAESoQ is 4. AAESoQ is 3 (1 Less).
Hannah + Jer Duggar Based on Wissmann Family Data, NonâAAESoQ is 11 and AAESoQ is 9 (2 Less).
Nathanael + Katrina (Sahlstrom) NonâAAESoQ is 10. AAESoQ is 10 (No Change).
Susanna, Alaythia, Charissa NonâAAESoQ is 11 Each. AAESoQ is 9 Each (2 Less Each).
Based on NonâAAESoQs, Total Predicted Grands is 112. Adjusted for Maternal Age, it's 98 Grands (14 Less), a rate of 7.5 Per Couple.
Meagan (Forsyth) + Bobby Ballinger NonâAAESoQ is 9. AAESoQ is 9 (No Change).
Karissa + Mandrae Collins NonâAAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 11 (No Change).
Sierra Jo + Mark Dominguez NonâAAESoQ is 11. AAESoQ is 11 (No Change).
Courtney + Christoper Rogers NonâAAESoQ is 14. AAESoQ is 14 (No Change).
Kristen + Justin Young NonâAAESoQ is 10. AAESoQ is 9 (1 Less).
Note that, even where there's "No Change" in the AAESoQ, there's a change in the dates each Pregnancy or Birth is anticipated, caused by the Age Adjustment. The reason the ESoQ didn't change is that, even with the Age Adjustment, the couple still had time to have the same number of children. Maybe their Final Child was due to arrive pretty far from the actual Fertility CutâOff, but now it's due close to the CutâOff, etc.