Good morning folks, and welcome to today’s statistics blog. Today, I took data from every country in the 2016 Eurovision’s last five participations - specifically, the number of points they were awarded in finals during this time - to make this map that demonstrates the success (or lack thereof) each country has had in the past five years. The number of points accrued is shown on this map on a scale from dark red (no points in finals), to various shades of orange and yellow, to dark green (dominance.) I then used this data to separate the current participants into categories based on their current form:
1. A league of their own (150 + average): It is telling that there is only one country in dark green on this map, and that is Sweden. With 2 victories, two third place finishes and a “disastrous” (hah! More like respectable!) 14th place on home soil, they’ve put together 1205 pts in five contests. That’s an average of 241 points per contest, so even their average is more points than almost half the contestant countries (21) have achieved in five years. The only country that comes close to meeting them is Russia, who’ve notched up 902 points (180 per contest average) over 5 years. These two countries on their own have received 17.4% of all points awarded during that time. Two countries. One fifth of all the points. Staggering, really - but one wonders if they can keep up this current rate of success?
2. Challenging the champs (100+ average): There are four other high-fliers who have picked up an average of at least 100 points in their last five outings, and they are the shining star of the Big 5, Italy (148 average), the perma-qualifiers Azerbaijan and Ukraine (137 and 132 average respectively) and Denmark (102), which keeps up its impressive average despite falling for the first time in five years at last year’s semi-finals. These six countries have been awarded almost 40% of all available points in the past 5 years, which is an incredible statistic (and a testament to the homogenization of points awarded since the jurors were allowed to downrank songs).
I get the feeling, though, that next year, we will see some of these countries fall from the second highest rank. Azerbaijan was up with Sweden as the second most successful country two years ago; Denmark didn’t qualify last year and may fail to qualify again; and Ukraine is either going to go big or go home early this year. I get “end of an era” feelings about this year’s Eurovision, but maybe I am wrong.
3. Top 10 contenders (75+ average): This group contains two perma-qualifiers (Bosnia and Greece) and three countries with only one song that failed to reach the finals in five years (Serbia, Armenia and Norway.) Both of the perma-qualifiers have a similar track record in their last five outings - a few top ten entries and a few bottom half songs, whilst the 4/5 group are more heterogenous - Serbia achieved a great result, three respectable results and a failure to qualify (like Serbia’s X, 13, 14, 3, 10), Norway gets either all or nothing (three top ten finishes, one last place, one non-qualification) and Armenia sits somewhere in the middle, with two top 10s and two lower-mid table placings. Can Bosnia keep up their excellent record after a long break from the contest? Will the base-splitting Norwegian and Greek entries see them drop a level? We’ll find out soon!
4. Mid-table respectability (50+ average): This kind of average may seem small, but it’s nothing to be sneezed at, given that 50-74 pts can put you up near the top in tightly-contested years like 2011 or 2013, or years like 2015 where a few songs suck up most of the points. There are seven countries in this category, some names from which I wouldn’t have expected to see a couple of years back. They’re led by Austria and the Netherlands, coasting into a respectable average thanks to Conchita and The Common Linnets’ success despite a rocky record before and since. They’re followed by Romania (who have never fallen in a modern semi-final) and Hungary, who have become one of the dominant forces of central Europe with five consecutive qualifications with 5 very different songs - one reason why Magyarország has my eternal respect. Another fave of mine, Estonia (4/5 qualifications, two top 10s, two low rankings), follows, alongside Belgium (in the mid-table simply because of Loïc and Roberto’s successes) and Germany.
5. The bottom placed finalists (25+ average): This is a vast category containing twelve countries that have either seldom qualified but done an incendiary job when they did (Latvia and Aminata, we’re looking at you; Albania and Rona, you too!), countries that have appeared 3-4/5 times but not really made an impact on the scoreboard except in a single contest, and the underperforming Big 5ers, UK and Spain. At least most of this group can cling to the fact that, more often than not, they do qualify.
6. The struggling semi-finalists (1+ average:) Other than France, these are nations that are not doing brilliantly with the advent of semi-finals, but are at least occasionally qualifying. At the top of the group are Cyprus (with 3 final appearances, none of which got much traction amongst voters) and Israel (one success out of five, but enough to give them a 20 pt average over 5 years). Macedonia’s last qualification was with Kaliopi, and they’ll be hoping she can improve their poor average - though the lowest of the group is San Marino, with just one qualification, 14 points and a pitiable 2.8 average over 5 years. Can Serhat capitalise on the number of Laïka-lovers who miss the disco with his I didn’t know? The jury’s out on that one...
7. The never qualifiers (0 average): In 2014, there were six of these billy-no-mates who hadn’t qualified for quite some time; happily, that number has dropped to two, not counting Portugal. They are the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. I have a strong feeling that Bulgaria will qualify for the first time since Voda with their powerful track from Poli Genova. I’m less hopeful for the Czechs, however...
I wonder which of these countries will drop and which will rise after Stockholm? I can hardly wait! Full rankings:
