Confidence Men
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Confidence Men

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When Ronald Reagan ran against Jimmy Carter, nobody knew at the time that Reaganās campaign had cut a deal with the mullahs of Iran to hold the hostages, making Carter appear fatally weak and politically impotent.
Which "Nobody Knew at the Time" Will it be This November?
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Itās stunning to read this book and realize the millions of dollars that have been spent trying to preserve white supremacy in the United States. Reaganās racist strategy, after all, was to target āvoters who felt victimized by government actions that cost them the privileges their whiteness once afforded them.ā
Equally surprising is Perlsteinās declaration that Arthur Laffer, Robert A. Mundell, Robert Bartley, and Jude Wanniski were āarguablyā¦the most influential economic thinkers in the history of the United States, even though their theories turned out to be substantially wrong.ā
Unquestionably, Jimmy Carterās presidency was hit with ācrisis after crisis after crisis,ā from Billygate to Bert Lance to a bitter challenge by Senator Ted Kennedy. But Carter seemed to create his own black cloud by preaching an austere gospel of gloom and doom, whereas Ronald Reagan blew bubbles about the economic boom heād bring. āWe live in the future in America, always have,ā Reagan said. āAnd the better days are yet to come.ā
Carter told hard truths; Reagan told soft lies. And, on November 4, 1980, the country voted for bubbles and better days.
US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump both knew what they had to do in their first - and possibly only - debate in Philadelphia's National Constitution Center on Tuesday night, and Trump had far more solid substantive factual points to make as well as the only dramatic new policy initiative of the night and indeed of the entire campaign so far: His promise if elected not even to wait the two months till his scheduled inauguration but to launch an immediate peace initiative to end the war between Russia and Ukraine immediately.. Nevertheless, it was Harris, who said far, far less, who won the night - based on the now 44-year record and pattern of US nationally televised presidential debates going back to 1960 - and on electoral psychological dynamics in America that now go back for at least 128 years. For here is the fundamental lesson of psychology in American national politics: Happy smilers who say nothing but exude optimism win: Angry populists who glower and shout a lot alarm far more people and lose, however great the justice, ideals, and social justice of their platforms, arguments and plans. In the first televised debate Kamala Harris shakes hands with Donald Trump and then attacks him on rallies. Donald announces that if he wins he will deal with peace in Ukraine immediately, without waiting for the inauguration. However, the Dem candidate wins the game on image and appearance. And that's what counts in these kinds of confrontations...
Bryan in 1896, just like Donald Trump today, generated enormous amounts of energy campaigning across the entire American continent on a scale and with an intensity that had never been seen before. More people voted for Bryan than for any other individual in US national history before him. Yet the soothing, easygoing McKinley who hardly ever ventured from his cozy front porch at home during the campaign, beat him legitimately by a margin of almost 5%.
The same pattern held when Bryan ran and lost a third time in 1908 against the literally mountainous (he weighed 330 pounds. or 150 kilograms) William Howard Taft. Yet Taft, who could hardly walk and allegedly got stuck in his own bath in the White House (the story has long been ridiculed but has the ring of truth), won easily too.
Then in 1920, Americans turned their backs on the endless talk, emotional energy and precious few achievements of the high-minded Progressive Era and elected quiet, reassuring conservative Republican Senator Warren Harding of Ohio by record margins. Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt had never enjoyed such a triumph, even though a young Franklin Roosevelt was the vice-presidential candidate on the doomed Democratic ticket.
FDR learned the lesson well himself. In 1932, he smiled a lot and gave vague and contradictory promises about everything to everyone throughout the campaign. So wooly and waffling was Roosevelt that he convinced even such outstanding observers as New York Herald Tribune columnist Walter Lippmann that he was a weak-minded nonentity.
But FDR knew how to smile: Just like Vice President Harris on Tuesday night.
Hapless incumbent President Herbert Hoover added to his woes in 1932 when he allowed his campaign to have as its theme song, āBrother, Can You Spare a Dimeā ā a heartbreaking tale of woe from the Great Depression. Franklin Roosevelt ran with āHappy Days Are Here Again.ā And he won in a landslide.
In 1980, again in a time of great economic fear and uncertainty across America ā though not remotely comparable to the Great Depression, earnest, serious incumbent President Jimmy Carter defended his honorable though inept record and tried to pin Republican candidate Ronald Reagan down on the key issues. However, Reagan ā a veteran Hollywood movie star ā as much despised by intellectuals then as conservatives sneer at Kamala Harris now ā simply knew how to time his reaction lines. āThere you go again ā he sighed ā America roared with laughter. And that was the end of Carter.

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Four decades ago, Halper was responsible for a long-forgotten spying scandal involving the 1980 election, in which the Reagan campaign ā using CIA operatives managed by Halper, reportedly under the direction of former CIA Director and then-Vice-Presidential candidate George H.W. Bush ā got caught running a spying operation from inside the Carter administration that involved passing classified information about Carterās foreign policy to Reagan campaign officials in order to ensure theĀ Reagan campaigned knew of any foreign policy decisionsĀ that Carter was considering.
The FBI Informant Who Monitored the Trump Campaign, Stefan Halper, Oversaw a CIA Spying Operation in the 1980 Presidential Election
Reaganās 1980 campaign was pure Goldwater. He promised sweeping tax cuts and a āreturn to spiritual and moral values.ā He pledged to take on Communists abroad and welfare ācheatersā at home. Most controversially, Reagan echoed Goldwaterās racist dog whistle by pledging to restore āstatesā rights.ā By following small-government conservatism, Reagan told the nation, America would be restored to āa shining city on a hill.ā Reaganās supporters cast their candidate as the heir to Goldwaterās throne. āBarry Goldwater was the philosopher,āĀ John Sears,Ā Reaganās campaign manager, explained. āRonald Reagan is the articulator.ā For good reason, conservatives saw Reaganās victory over Jimmy Carter in the general election as the complete vindication of Goldwater conservatism. By winning, Reagan placed views once seen as fringe conservatism squarely at the center of the GOP and demonstrated that all it takes is one fortuitous election to fundamentally shift the American political landscape.
What Democrats Still Donāt Get About George McGovern
In January of 1965, when Reagan, a conservative Hollywood actor, began exploring a run for governor of California, the incumbent, Democrat Pat Brown , sent out a young aide on a scouting trip. The scout reported back that Reagan would "fall apart when he gets attacked from the floor....His attacks on [Lyndon B. Johnson] and Governor Brown won't make it with those who don't think the President is a dictator." Nevertheless the lightweight announced he would run, and a columnist in the Washington Star recorded an "air of furtive jubilation down at Lassie for Governor headquarters."
Reagan's 1965 Republican primary opponent was judged a political superstar by the New York Times, easily "matching oratorical skill" with the former actor. When Reagan visited Redwoods National Park, and reporters quoted his immortal words, "a tree is a tree, how many more do you need to look at?", the San Francisco Chronicle reported his campaign would soon "bottom out."
"The Republican Party isn't bankrupt, or isn't that bankrupt that it has to turn to Liberace for leadership," Esquire observed at the time. "'Bring him on' is our motto," a Brown aide saidāand Reagan was brought, winning the nomination in a landslide, and eventually winning the general election.
But the jokes only continued. When Reagan entered the 1968 presidential race, the TV comedy revue Laugh-In made "Ronald Reagan is running for president," an unadorned punchlineāthat was the whole gag. He ran again in 1976, challenging an incumbent president in his own party, and taking for the nominating contest all the way to the convention, an almost unheard of feat in modern American politics. That this was a historic accomplishment largely escaped the media, however; it didn't matter, for instance, to the author of the syndicated comic strip Dunagin's People, who depicted a TV announcer explaining, "Now that the conventions are over, we can get back to our regular programāold Ronald Reagan movies."
As preparations began for the 1980 race, Lyn Nofziger, Reagan's late advisor, noted that Team Reagan didn't discourage the belittlement. In fact, they came to rely on it as part of their campaign strategy: being underestimated only made their man stronger. Liberals fell right into the trap: in the week running up to the election against Jimmy Carter, Doonesbury ran a series where the strip's indefatigable TV reporter, nature documentary-style, took "a fantastic voyage through...the brain of Ronald Reagan."
"Unhappily, the brain stops growing at age 20, and thereafter, neurons die off by the millions every year," the comic reported. "What this means is that the brain of Ronald Reagan's has been shrinking ever since 1931."
This was a fairly accurate portrayal of how Carter's aides saw their opponent. Carter speechwriter Hendrik Hertzberg has related that the campaign's strategists were confident that if they only could get Reagan side by side on the debate stage with the incumbent, the public would finally realize that the Republican candidate and former star of Bedtime for Bonzo was just stupid.
Well, they got their wish: A debate between Reagan and Carter took place the weekend before the voting. Reagan wiped the floor with the president, and a race that had been virtually tied turned into a Reagan landslide.
Trump is a very different figure from Reagan, who had governed America's most populous state, and rather successfully, before he ever ran for president. They are similar, however, in that they both top-rated TV stars for years before they ever sought office, Reagan as host of G.E. Theater anthology programs, and Trump as the billionaire host on 14 seasons of The Apprentice. Because of this, both men had a profound head start over their opponents, having already imprinted themselves in voters' minds exactly as they wished to be seenāReagan as the genial curator of stories that always had happy endings, Trump as the omni-competent boardroom warrior before whom weaker mortals can only grovel.