What's in the Box, Sara?
I can't remember how many years had passed since my last blog, and honestly, I never thought that I'd be doing one again. But the Philippine Presidential Election is coming, and there is a specific topic that interests me. Well, not really! I'm just bored. I am talking about the withdrawal of Sara Duterte to run for Mayor in Davao City. Of course, some people said it was predictable, especially those who just learned this tactic from President Rodrigo Duterte. It makes me laugh seeing those TikTok kids acting like political geniuses.
Ok! That's enough for an intro.
Let's get straight to the topic.
When the headline first came in, I saw a lot of posts on social media making memes of Sara Duterte, saying that the old tactic she's recycling from her father will not work again. Unfortunately, that's true! This is about the theory that she will file a candidacy for Presidency at the last minute, like what her father did. Well, if I am a 15-year-old teen, that's the first thought I'll have most probably. Now, I'm not saying that it's not possible, but does it make any sense? Let me lay out some factors why it does not (to me, at least).
Factor #1:
As the critics said, the "last-minute strategy" was used already by Sara's father, so its effectiveness might not be as good as before. I totally agree! Using that kind of strategy again is next to useless, and Sara Duterte knows that. C'mon, guys!
My take is that her early statement that she will not run for a national post is not a strategy at all, but to distance herself from her father's party "PDP-Laban". If there is someone that PDP-Laban wants to be their Presidential bet, it's her. But based on Sara's recent statements, it looks like she's not delighted with the party and it must be because of the internal conflicts and issues that it's facing right now.
Factor #2:
Sara Duterte running for President could be an advantage to the opposition. Why? If she chooses to run for President, the votes could split between her and Bongbong Marcos. If that happens, it will just serve the opposition's objective.
Some may argue that Sara is taking the lead in the Presidential bet according to the latest survey conducted by Pulse Asia, and she's not even announcing yet. So, the vote split is unlikely to happen, and it won't be a problem for her in case. The tide is on her side. Yes! That argument may be true! But if we look at the numbers, she only leads by 5%, and relatively, it's not that big. Remember, we're still seven months away from the election, and there's still a lot that could happen. We also have to consider the President's future performance for those months to come. It could affect the people's vote as well.
Factor #3:
If you would be running for President, you'll want a Vice-President that would be on your side (vice versa). If Sara runs for the highest position, I don't see any running-mate for her that is strong enough to beat Tito Sotto. That's right! Tito Sotto is currently 25% in the latest survey for the Vice-President position, and that's a pretty big number! I doubt that the current administration would want him on the seat.
Now, because of the recent meeting of Bongbong and Sara in Cebu, others think that Marcos Jr. might pave the way and will run as a Vice-President instead, but I doubt that too! He waited for this for a very long time, and it's not just for achievement; it's to rebuild his father's name in the political arena, and that is not a secret. The momentum is clearly on his side. It's now or never! The most tactical move that I see here is for Sara to run as Vice-President for Marcos Jr., and their own respective supporters will help both of them win.
Factor #4
Rep. Salceda's interview with Karen Davila. In this interview, Salceda said that Sara always wanted to run for President even from the start. Now, this may sound funny, but this interview even convinced me more; that Sara will run as Vice-President and not as President. The thing is, why would her ally say this kind of thing if Sarah Duterte herself hasn't announced yet the position she's vying for? I have a strong feeling that it was a diversionary tactic! And if that's the case, believe me, or not, it was not to confuse the voters but for the opposition to scratch their heads.
Factor #5
Sara already joined the "Lakas-CMD" after leaving her previous party "Hugpong ng Pagbabago". For those who didn't know, the President of Lakas-CMD is Martin Romualdez, the first cousin of Bongbong Marcos. I don't need to say much about that. Use your imagination!
The remaining question is, "What will happen to Sen. Ronald dela Rosa and Sen. Bong Go?"
My answer is "Do I really need to explain their roles in the coming election?"
If Sara and Bongbong join forces, what do you think they'll do? Yeah! You get the idea!
Looking at these factors, my conviction tells me that Sarah will run for Vice-President and not for President. And if that happens, I believe the opposition, especially the Liberal Party will be in dire straits. The possibility of a Marcos-Duterte tandem is like a bullet that is almost impossible to dodge, and it will be very hard to stop the bleeding!
But then again, all of these were based on my perspective. I can be wrong. Sara may run for President at all, and the decades of friendship between the Dutertes and the Marcoses will soon face its end.
<'))><
