Lupin’s New Drug Launch Faces Competition, but Analysts Remain Optimistic
Analysts Predict Strong Upside for Lupin Stock
Lupin Ltd., a prominent pharmaceutical company, has garnered attention from analysts following its latest product launch in the United States. On March 10, financial experts projected a potential upside of nearly 16% for the company’s stock from its previous closing price. Leading brokerage firms have expressed a positive outlook on Lupin, with Citi setting a target price of ₹2,260 per share—an 11.3% increase from its last traded price of ₹2,030.
The optimism stems from Lupin’s introduction of the generic version of Rivaroxaban 2.5 mg (branded as Xarelto 2.5 mg) in the U.S. market. However, the launch is classified as an “at-risk” move due to ongoing patent litigation, with the original patent set to expire in 2039. Despite this legal uncertainty, analysts believe that the potential market opportunity could drive significant revenue growth for the company.
Competitive Landscape and Market Projections
Lupin is not alone in launching Rivaroxaban—another major pharmaceutical player, Sun Pharma, has also secured approval and may enter the market soon. According to data from IQVIA, the brand’s total market value stands at approximately $446 million, and in an initial two-player competition, Lupin’s share could range from $7 million to $10 million per quarter. However, industry experts anticipate that additional competitors may enter the space, likely under similar settlement terms as Lupin.
Brokerage firm Nomura has also backed Lupin with a “buy” rating, setting a higher target price of ₹2,350 per share—suggesting a potential 15.7% upside. Nomura analysts noted that Lupin’s launch of the generic version of Xarelto was slightly ahead of expectations, which could give the company an early advantage in the market.
Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment
Lupin officially announced the launch of Rivaroxaban 2.5 mg mg in the U.S. last week, following its final approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). While the annual sales for the product are estimated at $446 million, the projected market size at the manufacturer level stands at $125 million. The overall U.S. market for Rivaroxaban—including all dosage strengths—is valued at approximately $2.5 billion. Analysts believe Lupin is among the four initial filers for the 2.5 mg variant, further solidifying its position in the market.
Investor sentiment towards Lupin remains mixed. Out of the 37 analysts tracking the company, 22 have issued a “buy” rating, 10 have suggested a “hold,” and five have recommended a “sell.” As of 10 AM on March 10, Lupin’s shares were trading 0.49% higher at ₹2,040 per share. Despite the positive outlook from analysts, the stock has faced a 13.72% decline so far this year. While competition and legal challenges may impact growth, many experts remain bullish on Lupin’s long-term potential in the pharmaceutical market.
