DJIA logged its sixth Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) of 2026 earlier this week, and according to research in Stock Trader’s Almanac (page 78 2026 edition), this is a market signal worth watching.

A DF/DM occurs when DJIA declines on both Friday* and the following Monday**. While this pattern does not guarantee an immediate selloff, Almanac research has found that these occurrences have frequently marked market inflection points and have historically been followed by weakness at some point during the subsequent 90 calendar days. The market can, and often does, bounce shortly after a DF/DM (like it did today), but past rallies have sometimes proven temporary.

The latest occurrence also comes at an interesting juncture. DJIA fell sharply on Friday, July 17, as the major averages suffered their first significant weekly setback in several weeks. The decline was accompanied by weakness in technology and semiconductor shares, while geopolitical concerns and rising oil prices added to trader/investor uncertainty.

Monday's market action initially suggested that investors were willing to step back in and buy the dip, but that failed. The bigger question is whether today’s strength can develop into sustained upside or simply represents the type of short-term bounce that has historically followed many DF/DM signals.

The accompanying chart provides an important perspective. It tracks the market's performance around the previous 271 DF/DM occurrences since 2000 and separates instances where DJIA’s Monday close was breached from those where it was not. Out of 271 DF/DM, Monday’s close was not breached just 32 times or 11.8% of the time.

The data highlights a key distinction. When DJIA did not close below its Monday close during the following 90 calendar days, DJIA historically went on to perform substantially better, with gains building over the subsequent several weeks and months. In contrast, when the Monday close was breached, subsequent performance was considerably weaker. DJIA remained close to flat in the early weeks and produced only meager gains on average over the following 60 trading days.

This suggests Monday’s DJIA close of 51,839.26 is an important level to watch. If the market can hold above that level, the historical pattern suggests this week’s DF/DM could ultimately prove to be little more than a temporary setback. But if DJIA closes below its Monday close, history suggests the risk of additional weakness increases.