All's well that ends without an explosion.
I'm talking about what I think is a very ambitious project by NASA which is to place a nuclear reactor on the Moon by 2030. And we're not the only ones who have such plans—now China & Russia also want to have a nuclear reactor on the Moon, but by 2030. NASA & the U.S. Dept. of Defense (DoD) have formally committed to deploying a fission surface power reactor on the Moon within 4 years. They signed an MOU (memorandum of understanding) to develop, fuel, authorize & prepare the system. Once established, it should provide continuous power for years without refueling. The nuclear generator will be truck-sized so that a lunar base doesn't freeze or go dark during the 14-day lunar night. The power for continuous fission (the splitting of atoms as opposed to fusion, the joining of atoms) will range from a 100 kW continuous fission system (enough power to run 30 homes) to 500 kW (enough power to run 150 homes). They plan to use their lunar base for mining, erect a launchpad & establish a habitat complex for the "Moonies," all of which will require 1-10 MW (megawatt) scale power, which is 1,000 times more than a kW.
Energy will be needed to extract oxygen from regolith (the layer of rocky material that covers the lunar surface). Inside regolith there are metal oxides (about 43% by weight), from which oxygen can be extracted. Energy will be needed to mine & process metals, to operate launchers & to run rovers, drills, life support, comms & cryocoolers. The problem is that unlike Earth, where reactors dump heat into air or water, on the Moon, there is no air or water. The solution? Large thermal radiators that radiate heat away as infrared light. They will have to coat the radiators with dust-resistant shields because lunar dust is razor-sharp. The dust clogs radiators, scratches surfaces, & jams moving parts. Rather than ship fuel back and forth from the Earth to the Moon, the plan is to send the reactor already loaded with highly enriched, long-life fuel, like a long-life battery.
Other challenges include the Moon's extreme temperatures (-410°F to +250°F / -246°C to +121°C). Moonies will have to endure constant tiny high-speed micrometeorite impacts that can puncture radiators, cables & shielding. Imagine living on the Moon & being sandblasted by BB gun pellets that travel faster than bullets. The Moon has regular shallow earthquakes that can last for hours. Humans will, of course, need shielding from radiation, & electronics & reactor components will need to be protected. Shielding for the reactor is heavy & will be costly to launch. High-voltage cables will need protection from the harsh lunar environment. NASA scientists & engineers will have to guarantee the nuclear core stays safe even if the rocket explodes, because a crash could scatter radioactive material.
They'll have to ensure there is a sufficient supply of spare parts—even if a $5.00 bolt breaks, you don't want to send a $2 billion rocket to deliver a new one. They will have to design a brand new class of lunar reactors. No reactor has ever run in lunar gravity, vacuum, dust, or extreme temperature cycles. It's not a "copy-paste" from Earth—it's inventing a whole new machine. The reactor must endure a roller coaster from hell before it reaches space. Robots will be needed to unfold radiators, connect cables & activate systems autonomously. Every challenge above adds a delay risk. My assessment is a 60-70% likelihood of a prototype reactor being delivered to the lunar surface by 2030-2032. It's more likely to slip somewhere in the mid-2030s.
As for the joint Russia-China goal of 2035, I give it a 50-60% likelihood of a lunar reactor by 2035-2037. They face the same challenges, & Russia's economy is suffering in large part because of the war in Ukraine. But sooner or later, from one nation or another, nuclear power on the Moon will happen. This is the new space race & whoever controls lunar energy will control the lunar industry.
