#cot analysis

ok the spheres better which is on Sunday March 26 or going to be looking at there is some charts setups and using big technical support and resistance levels backed up by the CFTC new traders report now in last week's video recovered gbp/usd that moves up really nicely for us with no bank taps of that trade and taking our profit we also it's achieving p AE d loc triggered longing in this pair you seeing this far more upside to come so i'll be updating it in the moment usd/jpy short gain that we've seen our favor to the downside i'm going to be updating the pairs or where I think good risk/reward entries are also and look at two new pairs this week aud/usd from a short perspective and also a minor pitch I think to a fantastic profit potential which is USD MXN long Natalie obviously pay a wider pitch spread by thing yeah with the profit potential in this pair um yeah it's well worth a small position so we look at the u.s. DMX sense about next just very quickly for new viewers to our videos if you're unfamiliar with the CFP see their traders is a video link under this one we can learn more about them we consider CFTC neck traders report are the most valuable tool in forex trading neck it's very briefly before we go and look at the charts on to say that new uses we always want to be trading with the smart money commercials when they go against noncommercial big speculators like managed funds um yes our favorite ways of trading and you'll see how effective it can be as we go through the chart so let's start with our first chart which is going to be a ed USC and then after result all the charts just come back some up with a few additional points aud/usd and we're just going to be looking at how the cftc net traders are shaping up and basically got three lines and bottom Green Line is basically the non commercials or large spectated funds the blue line represents the smart money commercials red line small speculators and we don't need to pay any attention to the red line tools insignificant for our purposes we want to see what the smart money commercials are doing against the speculators now we go to the right of the chart we can see that this week the commercials are sold heavily short they're the most short they've been since sep tember non-commercial still maintaining a big long position now we look at the commercials they were very short hearings where the cursor is and put a cup that's above the 76 level when we come to test 77 we're saying lastly we thought yeah the commercials they see ya when your Z goes above 76 they have done from the last year towards 77 they will come in and sell hard they lightened up into the 75 level but now they've gone short again now our last trade in a easy USD we shorted up into the 77 that'll look some profit down towards 75 but it wasn't a major profit really and now we've sold again with the commercials now just want to shift up to another chart and show you how we're playing this trade aud/usd daily again I'm just going to show you how we're playing this trade now in terms of resistance I'm going to put it there which is about 7740 okay that in terms of yeah what I'm saying i'm just going to stress it a little bit but you know what forget about 76 towards 77 for the last year that commercials are going to come in short and yeah we can just look to sell weakness on our last trade if you saw our video we came in and sold through 7650 did see a decent declined and 75 reelected half our trays and then tighten our stuff up on the other half now it's okay profit but we're looking this one to be a better profit now in terms of the rally up here the commercials yet they are going to sell hard so we can come in short again network took better would claim the shorts i just want to do my first target which is 75 okay now double topped once we get up towards 77 level yeah bitch personal perspective here we would come in early and just sell yeah this is just from our experience in the CFTC's and then cover some out as we come off the level our main position though comes in through 7650 so yeah we just basically beneath where we sold it but not by much i think in terms of resistance yeah we've got resistance at Thursday's candle here might get bit hard to ascend ascend but from our perspective narrow 20-day trying to hold it breaks through it we're going to come to 75 and then think we're going to be going down to sorry i want to be here my apologies i would be 7350 for my second target um so from our perspective are thinking of we're in it so yeah through 7650 level forget 7350 be happy yeah rallies for us a definite selling opportunities and yeah we'll just see how we go with this one but in terms of yours you up on 7350 but yeah from my sort of reading of the fundamentals which i'll update in the weekly forecast mark i think going down to 70 or lower i said for us we'll see hand this fungus um and we at hopefully it turns into a good profit so let's move on to the next chart yeah chart now GBP aud which was the setup we looked at in in last week's video now provide do some levels to sort of look at the CFTC know traders are in terms of how the commercials and non-commercial speculators not now you don't get GBP aud on the cftc net traders you have to work it out for yourself by doing aud against the USD then go GBP against USD but it's easy to work out the ratios you see commercials seven to one in favor of Long's / shorts they've got seven times may loans or short positions speculators noncommercial the other way round they've got six times as many shorts as Long's and added this week so we know we've got good divergence between the smart money and the speculators so we're like the same last week we want to be long and there's on this candle here which I'm highlighting just touch the 20-day moving average and we're saying what we liked about set up last week was that we'd have quite a few touches of the 20-day moving average with no decisive break so you got the touch here another one another one another one this one just gets above but fails then this one touches this one fails this one fails this one fails now when the commercials and speculators have buttered so much and volatility also has dropped we're just waiting for a break of the 20-day moving average we change that to black so basically you see us come down a little bit here then this big blue candle takes out the trade a moving average now this one doesn't follow through however you have known the CFTC net traders the way they're positioned we are pretty confident we're going to push on to the upside that's exactly what we do on this blue candle now we're pulsing on this red candle now from our perspective we came in through one 6145 we move up to 164 so it's a nice profit net course short-term could get pulled back where will the pullback come to I feeling it be around here so about 160 340 next in terms of thumb yeah you've got a good profit in this trade let's say I know I say in near enough all my videos i'm doing charts as you know is just take fifty percent of your profit or trade off the table bank in a good number of pepsi the other half run which you can do you can come back in or pull back if you wish or on a break clear break at this candle here now and we see you no more upside in this parent yet first level I think that we should target is going to be the 167 level but i'm really looking for Scott towards the 170 level so this trade so far it's a really good profit but I think yeah we could get yeah plenty more out of this one then we shall see but yes so far so good let's move to the next judge the Japanese yen against the USD on the CFTC there traders and the said it last week before anyone knew on the CIBC no trades report it's always the foreign currency first so we got the Japanese yen USD of course we're trading usd/jpy now in terms of the commercials some well they did was they increased their long yen positions okay into this 8750 level which is equated to 115 in usd/jpy will go to the usd/jpy chart the mode and obviously we saw the yen go up and the dollar go down while reloading this week though is we are seeing the commercials just ease out of some of their long vm positions but they still remain heavily bullish of the yen and bearish of the dollar in terms of the speculators from down here not much change this week they still remain very bearish at the end of bullish of the dollar so that'll move down in the commercials here after yep the yen has got up on the USD indicates a little bit of a correction for us and I do I'll just switch to the usd/jpy chart and do some level so you see where we think the stairs going the JPY day Liam's could draw in the level of resistance but the commercials for selling in tumors we noted them just at the positions up into the 115 level or specs are buying this red candle here gives us are selling opportunity gets through the level comes back settle near below I'm going to go short at 114 65 blue candle tries to take it out or take 115 about it can't serve a tail just gets above fails then this candle sales to entrain day moving average and now this candle here goes through 113 when we did my last video I'm going to think we thought we would get down to our initial target which is 112 and break it now we have broken it becomes threw 112 but now we're finding a little bit of support yeah so just back up off the 111 level was friday and yeah you're quite a skirmish close you've also got you know mentum a little bit over salt down the bottom stochastics turning up over self i re-sized turn them then you got a decent 441 1460 while quad sorry from 115 reading 111 and yeah the commercials have just taken some of their shorts off the table they still remain heavily short and from our perspective that just means they expect the bouncers they're not you know their positions and whole indicating there's going to be a trend changed so from the way the charlatan we're going to get a bounce and what we've done which we duel times to keep saying is 50% comes out in 2 1 1120 so got the option of putting it in again if we do break lower but if we Valentin get back in a better price but how far can we rally my own view is this level here it's the breakout point isn't it which is just but I 112-111 90 I think we should get to this level we get above it above 112 then it's this simple here this'll if I think could be targeted okay top of that candle open closing that one bottom of that candle so yeah with a real good / Sultan could get of 112 down to one 1270 I said we just see if the valley does not fall term do obviously we really go try and sell it if we break to new lows you've got the option of coming in through the lower Friday met once you oversold is corrected I think we'll go down to 106 but I'll just before I forget where's the stop behind the trading moving average for us so I do that this is the level we think around your fate into Shore and then the stop back behind 113 a 20-day and then like I said thing going down towards this 106 level here which would be a retracement of the entire yeah Trump rally really said 1 times 0 is greater than this plenty a damn sight um we could of course break blower but we can do whichever sell the rounding of celebrate lower but I saw the yes significant damn cyclist in respect so we'll see what happens on the USD MXN daily chart before I look at the chart action what I think is going to happen so draw your attention to the quote that I've put up on the left of the chart which came from Reuters on Saturday and if those currency speculators decrease the number of natural bits against the peso to the lowest fits a week before the u.s. presidential election speculators and investors have taken note of the pesos turned around UBS that's the big bang on Friday release the note to clients saying that they moved to an overweight position in the peso so basically they're selling the USD against the peso no I saw another um no toppings on MarketWatch works at the goldman sachs we're now recommending yeah clients sell the USD and by the pesona in terms of the speculators obviously what we're looking for them to be wrong and yeah if we look at the chart okay I've drawn a channel which is yet distribution where prices try and get higher than they break nicely into a Down trend now when we had the period of distribution the commercials were 7 21 in terms of their ratio of shorts over longs speculators actually sort of spelt it wrong held the opposite view they thought the USD was going up holding six times as many logs over shorts of course it breaks lower now what has actually happened is speculations got hit hard in terms of the decline are in the US think what happens in to the nineteen level okay speculators now almost even in terms of lungs are Long's and shorts sorry commercials who basically short the USD all the way down has now moved to a long USD position now no yeah from your reading the DMX and CFTC dates over years that yeah when the commercials turn around after having such a big short position they are basically going to be adding to it now okay now in terms of this it isn't an extreme now okay but the commercials moving along the USD and of course all this talk of yet USD is going to continue down against the peso all these big banks and wise funds coming in the other way yeah like eloquently a long side of USD MXN from a technical perspective and yeah we know the commercial is just going to keep buying now so what I've done is I've drawn a level 18 16 which i think is going to be good supporting the same as a trump rally breaks out above this red candle this one here yeah basically fills that gap and goes to the upside so I think this should provide good support and now i'm looking yeah Freddie strength at all to get long the peso and I think if we do that come in above the 1900 level and the stop can be behind the 18 six years I think going to be about 1850 for us something like that now plus a good level to target will be 2020 although I do think we could go back up to 2100 easily so from our perspective if we break higher we will want to basically go along okay if we come down to this 1860 level want to see how we probably go through it does look to buy back from the level okay so they see on strength I want to pick up the USD long against the peso yeah we know map speculators coming in heavy to sell us see MXN and the commercials now they're moving in to buy and they will continue buying so from a technical perspective of thickness looks decent chart and yellow the commercials are moving against the speculators here I just feel we are going to get a really good move to the outside yeah in the u.s. they get above that 19 level decisively I think will soon go to 2020 we'll see how this one pans out so that's my view of us be in makes it look like after that short summary there of a few chart setups in rationed to my gift our data as it is right now course it can change in line with the market conditions if you want our daily technical analysis major for expiration simply click on the link beneath this video the other pair out in the ones that we just looked at was see the USD MXN whether the groups are almost even Eva tell you know to shrimp you know that quote I dish from Reuters that the speculators there think it's a great idea with large funds to sell the USD MXN yes mentioned to you too big institutions there's many more actually pay for this straight now despite the fact that yo obviously lost a lot of money when the USD fell on the m xn and now they're going to reverse their dignity exactly the same time as the commercials have decided to drop their short position and start buying and I think yet from my past rating in the report the extra commercial buying of the USD it's going to be quite aggressive here short can run on a little bit more to the downside we're going to try an opposite arm strength it's also it will just slower entry and yeah once you also find rather than using Nick she is like on Reuters every week they talk about what speculators are doing in the market like they're the smart money they never ever mention the commercials yeah it's obviously the commercials who are really good at turning points and assessing fair value but they never get a venture such as long voyages on any of the big news wires that talk about CFTC net traders yeah authority that the commercials you only come out on top neck in relation to such a general point me I'm sure I've made it in previously it's not going to make you again anyway to feel it's important that once you have a decent profit you should always Bank ass there was a decent profit but it depends on each individual by OC I get above arms from 50 pips yeah 250 pits like in that GBP AED one I thought might get some money off the table yeah get some in the bank you got the option to put it back in filling these things run on yeah you smooth direct fatigue curve you most of time yet get decent love Prophet ensure you're going to come out with something overall on your trade or you dramatically reduce your risk so i would like to kind of play great defense firstly i'm gonna fall too far behind in for X and you have a smooth equity careful always think doing 5050 trades yeah helps achieve that now in relation to the trades we've just looked at I will come back and look at them again next week also tomorrow I'll do our usual forecasts going through all the big fundamentals that are driving the charts as well but that is the video for diction thank you very much for aamir as usual take care have a good day you