No Bullshit: Reasonable expectations for energy costs in 2018.
Among those who push for renewable energy we hear about cost. Much of the time there is lots of talk about prices plummeting. Moore’s law is often cited in reference to the cost of solar panels. http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/03/16/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells/
But the U.S. Energy Information Administration released a report showing the total system levelized cost (based on 2011 $/MWh) of the various types of energy production in America in the year 2018. Yes, the fortuneteller was put to work on energy numbers. Thanks Obama.
The EIA makes some important assumptions, such as what amounts to basically a $15/metric ton of carbon dioxide tax. While such a tax as such is highly unlikely, we’re already seeing the costs seep into the coal industry in the form of tighter emissions regulations by the EPA so maybe they aren’t that far off. Anyway, here’s the chart.
 It looks like wind isn’t so bad, actually. Wind comes in third place behind Advanced Combined Cycle Natural Gas and Conventional Combined Cycle Natural Gas. Wind clocks in at $86.6/MWh. Solar is still struggling, despite the so-called Moore’s law reduction in costs. But Gas. That’s one cheap source of energy. $65.6/MHw. And if a majority of our emissions are going to come from emerging markets in the near future, China, India, Brazil, etc., then getting the cost of a renewable down to the absolute lowest number is going to be important in any fight against climate change. Remember, these assume conditions in America, not overseas where environmental regulations are much less stringent. Just look what a sunny day in Beijing is like.
So will we in trouble? We already are in trouble. The Earth is still going to fry. I'll probably be dead, though. At least wind power will be cheaper than coal.
