#channelsandpatterns

Suspended Sentence – SPX Daily Chart from Springheel Jack #spx

Suspended Sentence Another day of selling yesterday, and SPX has lost over 2% over the first three trading days of 2015. This is fairly rare, having only happened eight times in the last 44 years, and it puts SPX on the clock for a possible rarer setup that would make the prospects for the remainder of the year look bleak.Of those eight examples, three managed to close January above the close…

"SPX made 5th straight doji or near-doji close yesterday & all 5 of last.." Chart/Analysis – Springheel Jack #spx

Price and Time We saw SPX made the fifth straight doji or near-doji close yesterday, and all five of the last daily closes have been in the 1938 to 1941 range, which is a rare thing to see. How rare? I’ve had a look back and not as rare as I was expecting. I’m considering these as being a minimum three days tight range consolidation on the daily chart, with a minimum of three doji or…

SPX: Given stretched state of market here I'm looking for retracement.. Daily Chart/Analysis – Springheel Jack #spx

The Pied Piper of Tokyo The big news over the weekend is that Japan has moved back into recession. The country is a cautionary tale of what can happen when complacent central bankers/planners ignore dangerous asset bubbles and then assume that they can fix everything with stimulus spending, ultra-low rates and wallpapering the country with newly printed money. With GDP over 7% under the…

DX: This triangle that has formed and is breaking up has target..Chart/Analysis – Springheel Jack #DX #USD

I’ve mentioned a target at 88.80 on USD a few times over the last few weeks. DX has formed a triangle and broken up from that with a target in the 88.80 area, and I’m expecting that target to be made today or tomorrow.

DX 60min Chart

SPX 5min "Is this current set-up a megaphone or downsloping.." Chart/Analysis – Springheel Jack #spx

  Setting up House in Crazytown   SPX reached Mike Vacchi’s Bet The House level yesterday, stayed there for minutes rather than hours, and then retraced seventeen points before bouncing. I had a really fun day after three days of dreary intraday tape this week, and it was great to have a two sided day. What had the bears actually achieved by the end of the day? Um ……… well …….Not a great…

SPX: If trendline holds high would be marginal..should be 2nd high of small 2x top. Chart/Analysis – Springheel Jack

From Crazytown to Bet The House My main trading partner is Mike Vacchi, who I mention regularly. We trade every day in his room at Princeton Trader.Mike has a system that he has been using for ten years or so to identify levels where the market is either extremely overbought or oversold, and they are set at distances from the 45 day pivot. That is at 1942.13 today and we have now spent an…

TNX 60min "might reverse & swing down again there, but probably more likely.." Chart/Analysis – Springheel Jack #TNX

I’ve been giving some thought to the setup on bonds here and I think I have the overall pattern on TNX now. That should be a falling megaphone. Short term TNX is consolidating/retracing and then I’d expect a move to megaphone resistance in the 25.5 to 26 area. TNX might reverse and swing down again there, but probably more likely that it breaks up towards a full retrace of the move in…

SPX Hits Megaphone Resistance. Daily Chart & Analysis from Springheel Jack #spx

  SPX Hits Megaphone Resistance SPX hit my 1940-5 target range yesterday and at the moment seems to be failing there. That fail looks very bearish but I’ll be assuming that this is a retracement only unless we break through the MA support cluster in the 1970-80 area to open up a possible retest of the 200 DMA at 1920, and then break hard through that on that retest. Until then I will be…