Here's a question for you, Oberyn wins the TBC and Tyrion goes free. Would Varys try and convince him to leave Westeros and go to Daenerys to spite his family or would he stay and demand Casterly Rock from Tommen as a fuck you to Cersei and Tywin? Or something else? Also how would Oberyn being alive change Doran's plans? Would he send him to Daenerys to seek an alliance against the Lannisters?
Staying in Kingâs Landing was not an option. As Kevan spelled it out for Tyrion, he was in danger whatever the outcome of the trial was.
âYou have no witnesses,â his uncle reminded him. âTyrion, if you are guilty of this enormity, the Wall is a kinder fate than you deserve. And if you are blameless⌠there is fighting in the north, I know, but even so it will be a safer place for you than Kingâs Landing, whatever the outcome of this trial. The mob is convinced of your guilt. Were you so foolish as to venture out into the streets, they would tear you limb from limb.âÂ
But forget about the mob, Cersei would have Tyrion torn limb from limb, guilty verdict or not. The outcome of the trial did not matter in the slightest; Cersei was convinced that Tyrion was the one who killed Joffrey and would have had him murdered even if heâd won the trial by combat. Tyrion is too smart not to realize that. A Kingsguard already tried to kill him during the Blackwater while he was acting Hand, whatâs stopping another attempt to happen, now that any power he had had been effectively stripped away from him? Who would care if the publicly disgraced so-called âImpâ was discreetly murdered when a witness after witness relayed stories of his âmonstrousâ and âdeviantâ behavior and played right on the onlookersâ already existing ableism? Kingâs Landing did not care about Tyrion when he was the one defending it, it certainly was not about to start now when everyone was ganging up on him.
No, Tyrion had to leave Kingâs Landing. Westeros, though, is another matter. As weâve seen in canon, Tyrion was utterly vulnerable in Essos, alienated by the difference in culture and language, weakened by lack of funds, allies or power through family name, and subject to the whims of Illyrio, JonCon and Jorah, among others. Moreover, with Tyrionâs innocence proven through Oberyn, Varys would lose his position as his only way out of a certain death, which effectively gave the Spider power to determine Tyrionâs course (which was to Illyrio and from there to Aegon. Daenerys was never in the cards as a destination for Tyrion. Jorahâs intervention was what readjusted Tyrionâs course to point straight to Meereen and Dany.)
Luckily, Tyrion had another option: Dorne.
[Oberyn] set the spear aside. âIt is said that a Lannister always pays his debts. Perhaps you will return to Sunspear with me when the dayâs bloodletting is done. My brother Doran would be most pleased to meet the rightful heir to Casterly Rock⌠especially if he brought his lovely wife, the Lady of Winterfell.â
Does the snake think I have Sansa squirreled away somewhere, like a nut Iâm hoarding for winter? If so, Tyrion was not about to disabuse him. âA trip to Dorne might be very pleasant, now that I reflect on it.â
âPlan on a lengthy visit.â Prince Oberyn sipped his wine. âYou and Doran have many matters of mutual interest to discuss. Music, trade, history, wine, the dwarfâs penny⌠the laws of inheritance and succession. No doubt an uncleâs counsel would be of benefit to Queen Myrcella in the trying times ahead.âÂ
One thing to keep in mind is that the change in the outcome of the trial alters the political theater in the capital. Tyrion would be exonerated by the gods themselves which disappoints Tyrinâs plans of formally disinheriting him as he wished for years. Oberyn would have Gregorâs confession of the murder of Elia and Aegon and Tyrionâs innocence proven which amounts to a public condemnation of the Lannister regime twice over, one for Elia and Aegon, and another for Tyrion. The Lannister regime would be publicly branded as one that employs and champions monstrous murderers and condemns innocents. That puts Tywin in a politically tight spot with Dorne, prevents him from using the criminal charges against Tyrion to kick him off the line of succession, and stays his hand from any attempt of retaliation against Oberyn in the meantime. Essentially, Tywin would be forced to play nice for a time to mitigate the consequences of the trial and appease Dorne, all while Oberyn sat on his small council and worked to undermine the Lannister-Tyrell government from within (though Oberyn planned to return to Sunspear with Tyrion but this could be to discuss their plan with Doran in light of the new developments or to present Gregorâs skull to his princely brother as promised rather than a sign of him abandoning his small council seat.) Oberynâs actions in Kingâs Landing were no impulsive move on his part but a sign of keen political thinking that could have served the Dornish plan really well if it worked (besides the obvious attempt to get justice for Elia in the only way that was afforded to him). If Tywin was forced to keep face and play nice with his purported Dornish allies, he would not halt his newly exonerated son from accepting a friendly visit to Dorne to keep the pretense of amiable relationship with the royalsâ future kin, so Tyrion would go to Dorne and Oberyn would take his seat on the small council and revel in rubbing it in the face of the Lannisters, while Doran received the heir to Casterly Rock who was itching to get back at his family and presumably the Lady of Winterfell who had enough reasons to want the Lannisters gone, as Oberyn believed Tyrion knew Sansaâs location. Those are great cards to have when youâre planning a coup.
As for Daenerys, Quentyn was on that as far as Doran was concerned. Iâm a little hazy on the timeline but I believe Oberyn was still alive when Doran sent Quentyn off on his journey. The plan was for Oberyn to be in the lionâs den while Quentyn sought out Dany to affirm the alliance with Dorne and bring her dragons to Westeros, an attack from within and without.