#buildingspeed

Since 2001, not a single Daytona 500 winner started from the pole. So how do the pole winners fare? And why the difference from pre-2001?

The Daytona 500 Divide

Yesterday's blog produced this surprising graph.

The red pillars show the drivers who started from the pole and went on to win the Daytona 500. From 1982-2000, five winners started from the pole and another four from the second position. 47% of the winners started on the front row. From 2001-2019, not only was there no Daytona 500 winner from the front row, drivers won from as far back as 39th. In my attempt to figure out what happened to create this divide, my husband (also a physicist) suggested looking at what happened to the pole winners to see if that might give us a clue.

Daytona 500 Pole Winners

The graph below shows the finishing positions of all Daytona 500 pole winners from 1982-2019. Grey bars indicate DNFs due to equipment failure or (more likely) crashes.

While this graph doesn't solve the mystery of the Daytona 500 divide, it does highlight the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing. Pre-2001, most of the times where the pole starter didn't win was because they were knocked out of the race. But that's not the case with later races.

Some Possibilities To Investigate

Where a driver starts at a superspeedway race and where he or she finishes often have little correlation. It's a different story for the Daytona Duels. Superspeedway courses are notorious for defying correlation. The likelihood of crashing is high. Good cars are eliminate by bad accidents. Cars that start in the back can win. Even though Duel starting positions are determined by qualifying times, one would think the same randomness would apply. One would be wrong. Here's a histogram of the starting positions of Duel winners from 1972 (when the Duels became non-points races) to 2019.

This graph covers 1972-2019. Before 1972, Duels were point races. Clearly, starting toward the front is better. Out of 96 winners, 25 (26%) started on the pole.18 (18.8%) started in the second position.55% of the winners started no further back than 3rd.80% of the winners started no further back than 6th.The further back anyone won from was 25th; that was Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in 2015. He qualified in the 10th position, but then failed inspection and had to start at the back.

Why?

My hypothesis for the correlation between starting position and winning is twofold: 1) The Duels are shorter; 2) Drivers don't want to have to start the Daytona 500 in a backup. The Duels are shorter than the Daytona 500. There isn't as much time to crash. One reason Daytona races have a high Diandra Danger Index is because they're long. The Duels are shorter, bringing the danger down. Winning a Duel gets you a good starting position for the 500, but a bad starting position doesn't count you out. It's a better strategy to drive a little more cautiously in the Duels and take big chances when points (and a win that gets you into the playoffs) are at stake..

What About Second Place in the Duels?

The results of the graph surprised me enough that I looked at where the second-place finishers started. There's a broader distribution, but it's certainly not random.

Winning one of the Duels tomorrow night puts you up front for the Daytona 500. But does a win in the Duels make you any more likely to win the Daytona 500? Tomorrow night marks the second phase of qualifying. We set the starting lineup. Drivers battling for open spots learn if they'll be racing or watching from the sidelines. We know that there's virtually no correlation between where you start a race at Daytona and where you finish. But the Daytona Duels are the closest thing to the actual race we run before the race. Does winning one of those mean you have a better chance of winning the 500? Let's look at the data. This pie chart shows where each Duel winner from 2002-present finished in the Daytona 500.

Winning one of the duels proves you've got a good car and you should be competitive in the Daytona 500. Unfortunately, you don't also win immunity from being caught up in a crash.

Digging Into the Daytona Duels

Lately I've gone back to working out my entire body at the gym. Before I was working out at home but it didn't feel right, I would always push back my workout time to later in the afternoon, to eventually not doing it at all because I was too lazy or I ate and had to wait. So enough was enough I decided to go back to the Gym at my school. It was the best decision I made this summer, I was able to focus on working out more, more motivated to push harder and work for what I want. This week I'm focusing more on my upper body and my core with some legs then switching it up next week with more cardio and legs, with some emphasize on my upper body. 

So far I'm loving what I've been doing so far and I'm going to keep going at it.

But that's just me.