"Tsunami Alert: How Karachi is Preparing for the Worst"
ย The Threat of Tsunami in Karachi
KARACHI: Due to the possibility of intensifying monsoon currents in Sindh starting tomorrow (Tuesday).ย the Met office issued an urban flooding advisory for Karachi and other cities onย ย ย ย ย ย Monday.
Dr. Sardar Sarfaraz, chief meteorologist, noted that the current weather system was anticipated to gradually get worse, first affecting southeast portions of Sindh on Tuesday afternoon or in the evening, and then affecting northeast areas, including Karachi, late at night with sporadic heavy rainfall.ย According to him, the heaviest rain is predicted to fall starting on June 11 when the low pressure region that is developing in eastern India would enter Pakistan and gather strength from the weather over the Arabian Sea.ย "After that, it probably will have an impact on all of Sindh. But prior to that, there would be intermittent mild to high falls in numerous areas of the province, he added, noting that the current weather pattern had obstructed the sea breeze, making Karachi hot and muggy.
Areas Which May Be Affected:
According to the Met department advisory, sea conditions are predicted to turn difficult or very rough from Jun 10 through 15, and fishermen are urged to exercise additional caution.rain-thunderstorms with scattered heavy falls are expected in Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas, Badin, Tando Mohammad Khan, Tando Allahyar, Hyderabad, Matiari, Thatta, Sujawal, Sanghar, Shaheed Benazirabad, Khairpur, Sukkur, Larkana, Ghotki, Kashmore, Shikarpur, Jacobabad, Dadu, Jamshoro and Qambar Shahdadkot during Jun 9-15.
In low-lying parts of Karachi, Hyderabad, Badin, Thatta, Sujawal, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allahyar, Dadu, Jamshoro, Qambar Shahdadkot, Larkana, and Sukkur throughout the projected period, heavy rains may cause water logging or urban flooding. From June 12, rainfall intensity is also anticipated to increase in Balochistan's northeastern and southern districts, which could result in flash floods in the districts of Dadu, Jamshoro, Qambar Shahdadkot, and downstream.
It further said that more strain could be placed on Hub dam, Thaddo dam, and areas downstream by persistently heavy rainfall over the Khuzdar, Lasbela, and Hub districts and across the Kirthar range.
History Of Floods & Tsunami In Coastal Belt Of Pakistan:
Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan, is located on the coast of the Arabian Sea. While the city has not experienced a tsunami in recent history, experts have expressed concern that any major earthquake could trigger a tsunami along Karachi's coast due to deep seas and unusual underground geographical changes. In 1945, a deadly earthquake occurred 100 miles south of Karachi in the Northern Arabian Sea, triggering a tsunami which resulted in the loss of over 4,000 lives. Since then, no tsunami has occurred off the coast of Karachi. However, the location of the city makes it susceptible to a host of climatic disasters. Legislation is essential to timely evacuate residents from coastal settlements in the event of an earthquake. In 2005, following an earthquake in Muzaffarabad, the seismic center of Karachi was made more efficient and three tsunami warning towers have been installed since then.
Geography:
Geographically, the coastal belt of Sindh and Balochistan, which covers an area of 1,100 km, has witnessed tsunamis triggered by earthquakes as well as islands emerging in the coastal areas. These extraordinary activities certainly point to the presence of underground gases and other factors.
Risk Of Tsunami:
According to Ameer Haider Laghari, Director Meteorological Department, Karachi, earthquakes have two causes: one is fault line and the other is boundary line. The risk of tsunami in Karachi cannot be ruled out due to the presence of three seismic plates in which the subdivision is slowly sinking.
Measures Taken By Government:
Two more warning towers have been installed in coastal areas of Balochistan in Gwadar and Pisni. About 14 towers will be installed by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) at various places in Sindh in the near future. The main purpose of installing these towers is to warn residents of coastal areas in case of any emergency. Tide gauges have been installed at various coastal areas of Sindh and Balochistan to monitor sea waves. In this regard, not only is the situation monitored but also alerts are issued if the height of waves exceeds 6 meters. A tsunami alert is usually issued for an earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale in the Arabian Sea.
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD):
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) holds responsibility for seismic monitoring and tsunami early warning in Pakistan. It is their liability to disseminate earthquake information to government and non-government organizations as well as to the public after any event occurs. All stations are linked with central recording stations at Karachi and Islamabad through satellite communication systems. Beside broad band stations, a parallel program for installing short period (1s) sensors for close monitoring of faults and local seismicity is running.
Floods In The History:
In addition to tsunamis, Pakistan has also experienced severe flooding throughout its history. In August 2010, Pakistan suffered one of its most severe floods that affected approximately 20 million people and destroyed homes, crops and infrastructure. The floods caused over $14.9 billion worth of damage and $15.2 billion worth of economic losses. The housing; agriculture and livestock; and transport and communications sectors suffered the most significant damage at $5.6 billion; $3.7 billion; and $3.3 billion respectively. Sindh was the worst affected province with close to 70 percent of total damages and losses followed by Balochistan; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; and Punjab. The floods affected 33 million people and more than 1730 lost their lives. They particularly impacted the poorest and most vulnerable districts with flood waters stagnant in many areas causing water-borne and vector-borne diseases to spread. More than 8 million displaced people faced a health crisis with loss of household incomes; assets; rising food prices; and disease outbreaks impacting vulnerable groups. Women suffered notable losses particularly those associated with agriculture and livestock. The national poverty rate may increase by 3.7 to 4 percentage points potentially pushing between 8.4 and 9.1 million more people below poverty line while multidimensional poverty can potentially increase by 5.9 percentage points implying that an additional 1.9 million households are at risk of being pushed into non-monetary poverty.
National Flood Protection Plan:
The government has already started updating its national flood protection plan by adopting global best practices for updating its flood risk framework. Early warning systems that make use of weather data and modeling can alert authorities to an expected flood and give them time to start evacuations and put in place contingencies for critical sectors such as agriculture.
International Water Management Institute (IWMI):
Flood inundation models developed by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and partners have helped to anticipate the depth and extent of flooding in Sri Lanka allowing governments and communities to take preemptive measures that reduce the negative effects. Insurance schemes supported by the government can also help small-scale farmers; businesses; and households recover after a climate event. IWMI and its partners have piloted index-based flood insurance in India and Bangladesh offering protection for agricultural livelihoods during floods limiting the long-term effect on food systems and food security.
Compensation:
Compensation for flood damage to crops totaled $150,000 between 2017 and 2020 allowing 7,000 families to repair their homes and farms and recover from the losses. Another example is the use of nature-based solutions or green infrastructure to harness the ability of ecosystems like wetlands to regulate water flow and absorb flood water.
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, while Karachi has not experienced a tsunami in recent history it is important for residents and authorities to remain vigilant and prepared for such an event. The installation of warning towers and tide gauges along with legislation for timely evacuation are important steps towards ensuring safety of residents in case of a tsunami.
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