#bearsh

مبادئ صراع الثيران ضد الدببة في أسواق المال والبورصات

صراع الثيران ضد الدببة المتابع لتداولات البورصات العالمية والمهتم بأخبار أسواق المال سيجد لا محالة أنها ساحات حروب لا تتوقف بين فريقين في الأساس، الدببة و الثيران. وعند قراءة أي تحليل فني لأسواق المال العالمية سواء تداولات أسهم الشركات أو العملات والذهب والفضة …الخ، ستلاحظ أن التفسيرات تتخللها مصطلحين مهمين الأول هو الدببة bears والثاني هو الثيران bulls. هذا ما يعرف بصراع الثيران ضد الدببة bull…

Last week, Chief took a look at some of the best or most favorite picks in WFL history. but his curiosity was piqued: During the draft, when Carson Palmer was accused of being one of "Kurt's guys," a quick look at our history booked almost unbelievably showed Palmer was once a first-round pick in the WFL. Seems almost impossible, right? But with the 6th pick in the 2006 draft, John selected Carson Palmer, who promptly led the Gromits to a 5-11 record.

But Palmer had some noteworthy years. In 2007, Pat drafted Palmer in the second round. The season after that, John took him in the third round (and went 5-11 again.) And in 2009, Ted took him in the fifth round, still a respectable pick.

This made Chief wonder: Can we determine the worst first-round picks in our history? If Palmer was once a first-round pick, and later a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th rounder, he must have had some good seasons in there to warrant repeated high picks. 

Thus the basis for this examination: Chief looked at every first-round pick who was only ever drafted that one time in the first round; he then looked at the other years these players were drafted, and added up the three best rounds for a total score -- for example, Palmer scored a 10 (for those 2nd, 3rd, and 5th round picks). As you'll see, many do worse.

Chief left out players within the last three years, as well as the first couple of recorded history years, as those players either haven't played long enough to develop a track record, or could have been drafted earlier than our recorded history. It's worth pointing out that any player that was ever selected in the first round has been drafted at least three other times. 

And Palmer? Just misses the top ten -- or is that the worst ten? -- of all time. He ties Stephen Davis and Jeff George, whose three next-best draft rounds also add up to 10. But since Carson's the one that started the conversation, we'll call this the Palmer Score in his honor. Here's the infamous list:

#9 (tie): Dorsey Levens & Jeff Garcia, 11 points. Garcia is the only person in the top ten who was twice drafted in the first round. He was also a third round pick... but his next best showing was in round 7. Jeff took Levens in the first round in 1998 -- his next best draft showings were in rounds 2, 3, and 6.

#7 (tie): Antonio Freeman & Mark Brunell, 12 points. May not come as a surprise to see a WR on the list, as they so infrequently go in the first round. Rich took the risk in 1999, but Freeman was never better than a third-round pick after that. Ted made Brunell a #1 choice back in 1998, who also went 2, 3, and then 7.

#5 (tie): Tiki Barber & Jamal Anderson, 13 points. What's interesting about each of these RBs is that they went in the first round just once, and their next-best showings were both round 4, round 4 again, and round 5.

#4: Joseph Addai, 14 points. The things we'll do for a stud RB. Rich first selected Addai as a rookie, in the 8th round, in 2006, when he became the replacement for Edgerrin James. He did well, prompting Ted to spend a first-round pick on Addai the next season. Addai was a 2nd-round pick the following year, dropped to the 8th round again. He rebounded to a 4th-rounder, then a 12, and we haven't heard from him since. 

#2 (tie): Brian Griese, 16 points. As we get close to the top to the list, let's take some time to think about the names we're seeing. We all can recall Addai as a star, albeit briefly. But Brian Griese? Pat took him as a rookie in 1999, and Griese went 4-9 and a starter. But he showed promise, and John was handsomely rewarded for using a 6th round pick the following year -- while he only played 10 games, Griese put up a 19/4 TD/INT ratio, and he was the hot young QB. Rich drafted him in the first round in 2001, and got 23 TDs... and 19 INTs. Bob made him a 3rd rounder the following year, but it wasn't getting any better. Jim made Griese a 12th-rounder a couple years later.

And the year after that, Griese became the starting QB for the Bears. True story.

#2 (tie): DeAngelo Williams, 16 points. That's right, an active player on our list. Coming out of the University of Memphis for the 2006 season, no surprise that Jeff drafted the rookie late in that draft. And even though he only scored 2 TDs that year, Jeff tried again the following year. 5 TDs. Jeff gave up on the youngster, so Jim took Williams in the 8th round in 2008 -- and Williams led the league with 20 overall TDs that season (!), while running for more than 1500 yards. That's the DeAngelo Williams that Jeff was waiting for, so he used his first pick on the Panther in 2009. He put up a decent enough season that Rich used a 2nd-round pick the next year -- the year he sprained his foot and missed 10 games. Bob tried Williams in the 6th round the following year, and Jim's drafted him 8, 12, and 12 since. 

#1: Kordell Stewart, 21 points. Stewart broke into the league in 1995, serving as a backup. He got his starting chance in 1997, and with four 4th-quarter comeback wins and 11 rushing TDs, captured the hearts of America. So in 1998, John used his first pick to grab Stewart, and the rest -- much like John's season -- was history. Kordell threw 11 TDs and 18 picks, which was apparently enough to convince Rich to use a 5th round pick on the QB in 1999. No bueno. 6 TDs and 10 picks later, Stewart may have stuck with the Steelers in 2000, but no WFL owner drafted him. Jeff took a chance in the 12th round in 2001, and was rewarded with the AFC Offensive Player of the Year (which may have had to do more with the Steelers going 13-3 than Stewart's 14 TDs and 11 INTs), enough to fool Kurt into a 5th round selection in 2002. Stewart only started the first three games of the season before being benched. 

The year after that, Stewart became the starting QB for the Bears. True story.

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If we look at the top ten here, and add in the next three on the list -- the aforementioned Carson Palmer, Stephen Davis, Jeff George -- it's almost unfathomable that four of these names were all first-round picks in the same year, 1998. But that's exactly what happened:

Brett Favre (Bob)

Terrell Davis (Pat)

Barry Sanders (Kurt)

Kordell Stewart (John)

Dorsey Levens (Jeff)

Mark Brunell (Ted)

Drew Bledsoe (Jim)

Jeff George (Rich)

In round 2:

Bob took Karim Abdul-Jabbar, who was only ever drafted three times (the other rounds being 3 and 9), and is therefore ineligible for a Palmer Score.

Jim took Napoleon Kaufman, who was only ever drafted three times (the other rounds being 8 and 11), and is therefore ineligible for a Palmer Score.

Pat took Robert Smith, who had a Pro Bowl year, and took the Nougats to the Super Bowl.

Kurt drafted Steve Young, who threw 36 TDs, and the Pirates didn't lose a game all year.

And six years after all this?

Winning ugly

What's the ugliest part of this Pirates-Gromits box score?A) Two of Kurt's WRs tallying zero catches (while the other two combined for 64 yards)

B) Five of John's guys barely scoring at all, tallying 50-59 rushing or receiving yards (25 fewer yards, and John loses 16 points)

C) Going into Sunday night, the score was 79-61. John had a QB and RB yet to play, Kurt his top WR