#balka 2

Timing of...

Pregnancy Announcement

Josie’s Due Date w/ Hazel was June 28, 29, or 30, 2021.  (Duggar Data is using June 29 as the Estimated Due Date and is, like, 90% Sure that that’s the actual Due Date.)  Josie + Kelton went public with Pregnancy #2* on January 5, 2021, when Josie was ~105 Days Along (Exactly 15 Weeks).

With Willow (Pregnancy #1), they announced  at 118 Days Along.  (Josie’s Due Date with Willow was July 25, 2019.)  Taking the average, it’s now ‘typical’ for the Balkas to announce at 112 Days Along (Exactly 16 Weeks). 

Sex / Name Reveal

The Balkas did a joint Sex / Name Reveal for Hazel via Instagram on February 18, 2021.  Josie was ~149 Days Along (21 Weeks, 2 Days), at the time.

Willow also got a joint Sex / Name Reveal.  Hers happened at 161 Days Along.  Taking the average, it’s now typical for the Balkas to do the Sex / Name Reveal at 155 Days Along (22 Weeks, 1 Day).

Delivery vs. Due Date

Hazel Sloane was born on June 14, 2021, which was ~15 Days Early.  (Josie’s labor was induced because of an “antibody issue ... that made [Josie’s] blood attack [Hazel’s] red blood cells.”  I’ve received Asks about whether I’ll exclude the Delivery vs. Due Date Data because of this.  My answer is no, at least with regard to Josie + Kelton’s Data, since Josie confirmed that the issue will recur for any future pregnancies...  So, she’ll probably be induced every time.)

Willow was born 6 Days Early...  But, I’m actually going to exclude that data, going forward, since—as mentioned above—Josie is apparently going to be induced with any future pregnancy.  The Predictor will, thus, use just Hazel’s data and assume that Future Balka Babies will also arrive 15 Days Early.

Birthweight + Length

At birth, Hazel Sloane weighed 6 Pounds, 3 Ounces, and was 18 Inches Long.  Her sister, Willow, was 6 Pounds, 10 Ounces, and 19 Inches Long.  Taking the average, your typical Balka Newborn is now 6 Pounds, 6.5 Ounces, and 18.5 Inches Long.

Effect on Procreative Pace / ESOQ

Actually, Hazel doesn’t affect Josie + Kelton’s Procreative Pace (PP), because she was born immediately after a Miscarriage w/ Known Date of Loss.  (Why?  Good question.  Because Post–Loss Spacings are significantly shorter—and therefore, not as predictive—as ‘Normal’ Spacings.  Here, for example, there are only 298 Days between the Miscarriage and Hazel’s Birth.  Josie + Kelton aren’t going to have babies every 298 Days, though.  That’d be crazy!)

Their Procreative Pace remains 579 Days, the Child Spacing associated with their 2020 Loss.  (To calculate that Child Spacing, the Predictor determines a Theoretical DOB for that child, based on its Due Date and Josie’s Delivery vs. Due Date Data.  We then count from Willow’s DOB to the Theoretical DOB to get the Child Spacing—in this case, 579 Days.)  That’s 1 Birth / 19 Months.

[ For More Info About How Miscarriages Are Factored In, See This Post ]

Josie + Kelton’s ESOQ is 17 Children.  (But, we’ll see, given Josie’s difficulty with this pregnancy...)  

When To Expect Balka #3

Without further ado...  Here’s the Predictor’s forecast for Balka #3—

Baby News   August 13, 2022

Sex / Name Reveal   September 26, 2022

Due Date   January 29, 2023

Birth Date   January 14, 2023