Hi @austinincranbourne I’m gonna answer this question on this side blog!
So, first of all, I think counterfactuals are very interesting and useful if done well. I have to say that I don’t exactly know a lot about the examples you give here but I think that counterfactuals about leaders-to-be who died young are especially tricky. The example you give about Margaret, Maid of Norway, seems particularly undoable to me. She was so young when she died that we can’t possibly know anything about what her ideas on governing would’ve been, so saying anything about a potential reign of hers is purely guesswork. Have people actually tried to do that? The only thing that you might be able to say anything about is how others would’ve reacted to the new ruler, and that’s still tricky because those reactions are partly dependent on the new ruler’s ideas.Â
Friedrich III of Germany is something entirely else imo because he was actually a grown man and we have examples of how he handled state affairs. However I know next to nothing about the man and his incredibly short reign so it’s rather hard to assess for me exactly how realistic it would be to write a counterfactual based on him. But theoretically I think it could be possible? It would in any case make much more sense than a counterfactual based on a 7 y/o. But if the resulting counterfactuals are so completely opposite I think we have to accept that it’s not possible.
I know there’s a counterfactual about William I of the Netherlands dying before 1830, which means William II would’ve ascended the throne of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands earlier and his different approach on the Belgian-Dutch problems would’ve prevented the Belgian independence. It has been a few months since I read that counterfactual but I seem to remember it was rather well done. It is not exactly an example of what the question was about but William II never actually was the monarch of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands so there is some similarity, if I’m making sense here?Â
In theory I would say: counterfactuals based on individuals who died as children are completely irrelevant and fictitious but counterfactuals based on people who died as (young) adults could make sense.