Professor Jiang Xueqin, who previously predicted Trump's return and the US-Israel strike on Iran, has released his "Game Theory #9" analysis, focusing on the petrodollar. His core argument is that the US-backed order in the Gulf is collapsing due to asymmetric warfare, leading to the death of the petrodollar system. The Core Argument: Structural Fragility of Gulf States The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states (Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia) are described as "artificial petro-states" with critical weaknesses: 🔻Import 80% of food and 60% of fresh water (from energy-intensive desalination). 🔻Flat, open terrain with no natural defensive cover. 🔻Populations in places like Dubai are over 90% expatriates with no "fighting spirit." 🔻Their entire model relies on selling oil in US dollars and recycling that wealth into US assets. In contrast, Iran is a "mountainous fortress" with a population hardened by sanctions and a Shia martyrdom culture. It is using a cost-effective asymmetric strategy. The Asymmetric Warfare Machine 🔻Cost Curve: Iran is bankrupting the US and its allies by using cheap weapons. 🔻Iran's Shahed drones cost $35,000–$50,000 each. 🔻The US/Israel must use $1–3 million Patriot/THAAD missiles to counter them, often requiring 2-3 per drone. Targets: Iran's strategy targets critical infrastructure like desalination plants, oil terminals, power grids, and airports. A single drone hit on a key facility (like Jebel Ali port or Ras Tanura oil terminal) can trigger a triple crisis of lost revenue, water shortages, and power outages. Predicted Country-by-Country Collapse 1. Bahrain (Weeks): A Shia-majority population ruled by a Sunni monarchy, home to the US 5th Fleet. Prediction: Shia uprising with Iranian support leads to the monarchy's fall, a catastrophic strategic loss for the US. 2. Dubai/UAE (Immediate): The "glamour model" dies overnight. With a 90%+ expat population, attacks on airports and landmarks will trigger a mass exodus of wealthy foreigners and investors. Jiang states: "Dubai as a city in the long term — it is dead." 3. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait (Slow-Motion Implosion): They share the same vulnerabilities at a larger scale: Shia minorities in oil-rich areas, massive desalination dependence. When water runs out and oil money stops, their social contract (subsidies for loyalty) breaks. The Game-Theory Endgame & Petrodollar Collapse Different Stakes: Iran fights with religious fervor and high pain tolerance; GCC elites have private jets and Swiss bank accounts and will flee. Result: When these monarchies fall, the petrodollar recycling system stops. Gulf trillions will no longer flow into US Treasuries, stocks, and assets. Oil sales will diversify into Yuan, Rupee, Gold, or other BRICS currencies. Final State: The US loses its "exorbitant privilege" of running deficits. The region fragments, and a "Pax Islamica" under Iranian influence replaces the US-backed order. Macroeconomic Conclusion This is a "regime change event" for the global financial system. The collapse of structural dollar demand will lead to a spike in US bond yields, a liquidity crunch, and accelerated de-dollarization.
