#10170

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Trade Idea : USD/CHF - Sell at 1.0170

USD/CHF – 1.0120

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 1.0106

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.0083

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0152

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 1.0094

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.0140, Target: 1.0040, Stop: 1.0175

Position : –

Target :  –

Stop : –

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0170, Target: 1.0045, Stop: 1.0205

Position : –

Target :  –

Stop : –

Although the greenback fell briefly to 1.0043 on Friday, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 1.0057 and the subsequent rebound suggest consolidation above this level would be seen, hence recovery to the upper Kumo (now at 1.0152) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0170 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0248-1.0043) and bring another decline later. Below said support at 1.0043 would extend early fall from 1.0344 top to support at 1.0021, then towards 1.0000 (psychological support as well as 100% projection of 1.0335-1.0087 measuring from 1.0248) but downside should be limited to 0.9945-50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of intermediate rise from 0.9550-1.0344).

In view of this, we are looking to sell dollar on further recovery as 1.0170 should limit upside. Above 1.0200-05 would defer and suggest a temporary low is formed, risk a stronger rebound to 1.0230 but still reckon upside would be limited and price should falter below resistance at 1.0248.