#$tecd

Wall Street is kicking off the day with a rally after a bout of volatility last week. All three major averages (^GPSC, ^DJI, ^IXIC) were higher across the board as investors gear up for central bank meetings in the US and Japan.

A rise in oil is helping lend support to the stocks. Crude futures (CL=F) rose in early trading following last week’s slide after Venezuela said oil producers were close to a deal to stabilize the market and as military clashes in Libya put the country’s crude exports in jeopardy.

Stocks to watch

Merck (MRK) shares are in focus after French rival Sanofi filed a lawsuit claiming the US drug company infringed as many as 10 of its patents, including ones for its blockbuster diabetes treatment Lantus and its insulin delivery device soloSTAR. US-listed shares of Sanofi (SNY) rose on the news.

General Motors (GM) shares were higher in early trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight and raised the price target by $8 to $37 a share. Separately, the head of Canada’s auto workers union says thousands of factory workers will strike at two General Motors plants if the two sides are not able to negotiate a new contract by the Monday night deadline. A strike would disrupt supply of engines that go into GM’s sport utility vehicles, including the Chevrolet Suburban and Cadillac Escalade.

Google’s parent company Alphabet (GOOGL) could be hit with a tax bill of more than $400 million for last year alone if the Indonesian government finds it avoided tax payments, according to Reuters.

Avnet (AVT) shares were higher in early trading following news that it’s selling its IT business to Tech Data (TECD) for about $2.6 billion in cash and stock.

Trust your gut

New research shows that financial traders who trust their guts have more success and last longer in their careers.  A Cambridge-led study of 18 high-frequency traders reveals that the better a trader was at sensing his own heart rate, the more successful he was at high-frequency trading. But should you trust your gut?

Samsung’s troubles spread

Samsung says that batteries are not to blame for phones that caught fire in China. It’s the latest development in the recall of millions of Samsung’s Note 7 smartphones with faulty batteries. Reports on social media over the weekend said two phones caught fire in China. How can Samsung recover?

Cutting Clinton’s chances

Tech Data Corp. (TECD) stock has experienced a volatile year with prices frequently climbing and falling between the range of $43.02 and $54.60. The Florida based wholesaler of technology products is scheduled to report its FQ3 2014 earnings on Tuesday, December 24th.

The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.

The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for TECD to report $1.24 EPS and $6.786B revenue while the current Estimize consensus from Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is $1.27 EPS and $6.789B revenue.

The Estimize consensus is more accurate than Wall Street up to 69.5% of the time because it represents unbiased market expectations.. By tapping into a wider distribution of over 3,300 contributors including hedge funds and independent analysts as well as students and non professionals, Estimize is better able to capture the true market outlook. Over the past 2 quarters for which we have had data, Estimize has been more accurate on EPS both times and once on revenue.

The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case we are seeing an average differential between the consensuses.

Over the past four months the Wall Street consensus trend for EPS has dropped from $1.29 to $1.24 while Wall Street revenue expectations have increased from $6.722B to $6.786B. The Estimize EPS consensus inched up from $1.26 to $1.27 and the revenue consensus has increased from $6.780B to $6.789B at the end of quarter.

The distribution of estimates published by analysts on Estimize range from $1.24 to $1.30 EPS and $6.766B to $6.846B in revenues. This quarter both Wall Street’s EPS and revenue expectations fall within the range our analysts are forecasting.  Additionally we’re seeing a moderate distribution of estimates this quarter for TECD. The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A wider distribution signaling the potential for greater volatility post earnings, a smaller vice versa.

The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is 1nvestor who projects $1.26 EPS and $6.785B in revenue. Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by our deep quantitative research which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy. In this case the analyst with the top confidence rating is expecting more profit per share but slightly less revenue than Wall Street.

This quarter the Estimize community is expecting Tech Data to beat Wall Street on both EPS and revenues. Over the past 6 quarters TECD has failed to meet Wall Street expectations for profit 4 times which has contributed to the volatility the stock has faced. If Tech Data can live up to the market’s expectations on Tuesday it could help to calm investors nerves and get the stock back on track.