#$ng_f

Based upon the NYSE ARCA Natural Gas Index (XNG) there is a seasonal tendency for natural gas companies to enjoy gains from the end of February through the beginning of June although the bulk of the move is usually complete in May. Detailed in the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020 on page 92, this trade has returned 13.3%, 13.4%, and 16.9% on average over the past 15, 10, and 5 years respectively. This seasonal strength can be seen in the following chart, highlighted in yellow.

One of the factors for this seasonal price gain is consumption driven by demand for heating homes and businesses in the cold weather northern areas in the United States. In particular, when December and January are colder than normal, we see drawdowns in inventories through late March and occasionally into early April. This has a tendency to cause price spikes lasting through mid-April and beyond.

Based upon the NYSE ARCA Natural Gas Index (XNG) there is a seasonal tendency for natural gas companies to enjoy gains from the end of February through the beginning of June. Detailed in the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017 on page 94, this trade has returned 10.8%, 11.1%, and 3.8% on average over the past 15, 10, and 5 years respectively.

Natural Gas Futures (NG) also tend to surge off of a seasonal low point in late-February. In the chart below near term NG futures contracts are plotted in weekly candlesticks overlaid with the black XNG line. In the lower window the seasonal trend is highlighted.

One of the factors for this seasonal price gain is consumption driven by demand for heating homes and businesses in the cold weather northern areas in the United States. In particular, when December and January are colder than normal, we see depletions in inventories through late March and occasionally into early April. This has a tendency to cause price spikes lasting through mid-April. 

A relatively mild start to winter this year has kept natural gas prices in check right around $3.40/mmBtu as of today. Inventories are modestly lower now than a year ago and are slightly below the 5-year average for this time of year. Unseasonably warm weather in the Northeast now is not likely to last through the remainder of January and February.

This morning I was on Canada’s Business News Network discussing the US Stock Market with Frances Horodelski. I’ve really liked the Internet Index, as you guys know, and these stocks continue to rock n roll. But now I want to turn our attention more specifically to the Social Media space. I think these are the next ones to rip. We briefly discussed the major US averages which I continue to like. I said in the video that the target for the Dow Jones Transportation Index was up near 4760, I meant 9760 obviously. I apologize for that. Finally we discuss Natural Gas as well. I think the risk/reward here very much favors the bulls. I went over all the reasons today with Frances.

Here is the video in full:

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Today's Portugal "surprise" scare served as a reminder that market catalysts often come out of the blue -- or at least off the radar. While the Portuguese market had already been down 20% as of yesterday, it had gotten very little media attention. That's why it pays to keep your eyes on as many markets as possible at all times: the biggest opportunities typically come from places that are out of the spotlight. For example, check out Natural Gas, in the form of the United States Natural Gas Fund $UNG:

Little attention has been paid to Natural Gas since its breakout in January as it has, for the most part, been moving sideways, consolidating the breakout. In our view, it is now at an extremely important level if it is going to make an effort to resume its post-November uptrend. The chart is a bit "busy", but that's a testament to the multiple layers of consequence here near the 22.7 level, including:

the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of 2012-2014 rally

the 50% Retracement of the post-November rally

the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of post-January rally

The breakout opening gap level from January 22 and the February 10 low, during an extremely high-volume period in $UNG

Weekends with All Star Charts

Goog morning freaky people. This week on weekends w all star charts, we play a little game called "What is Your Time Frame?"

In addition, we take a look at natty gas, semis, the us dollar & the spx on multiple time frames...