#$dis

November is a historically bullish month for the Disney stock - but a bumpy ride appears to be ahead.... #sp500 #spy #bullmarket #bearmarket #newsletter #trading #earnings #dis $dis #disney $disney

A HISTORICALLY STRONG SEASON IS APPROACHING FOR THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY STOCK, BUT THE CHARTS ARE COMMUNICATING MAJOR CHALLENGES AHEAD It’s no secret The Walt Disney Company (Ticker: DIS) has been downtrodden for an extended period of time now. The stock continues to not only fall in price and break to new lows, but persistently under-performs the S&P 500. But there are signs of capitulation…

Walt Disney, $DIS, made a top in March, almost exactly 1 year after rising off the pandemic low. It pulled back from there, finding support in May. It held there in consolidation for 6 months before a gap down in November. That continued to the 50% retracement of the full move higher and bounced. The initial bounce stalled at the 20 day SMA and fell back. It made a higher low and reversed, ending last week back at the previous high. 

As it moves up the Bollinger Bands® are opening higher. The RSI is crossing the midline with the MACD rising towards a move to positive. There is resistance at 154 and 163 then 167 and 169 before a gap to fill to 174. Support lower comes at 150 and 146.50 then 142. Short interest is low at 1.3%. The stock no longer pays a dividend. The company is expected to report earnings next on February 9th. 

The January options chain shows the biggest open interest at the 170 and 135 puts with big size at the 150 strike as well. On the call side it builds from 150 to a peak at 170 then slowly tails. The February chain builds from 125 to a peak from 150 to 155 then tails on the put side. on the call side it is biggest at 155 and tails higher. The March chain has biggest open interest at the 150 put and the 160 call strikes.

Walt Disney, Ticker: $DIS

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 154.50 with a stop at 150.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock on a move over 154.50 and add a February 150/140 Put Spread ($2.90) while selling the February 165 Calls ($2.45).

Trade Idea 3: Buy the January/February 165 Call Calendar ($1.95) while selling the February 140 Puts ($1.95).

Trade Idea 4: Buy the March 140/155/165 Call Spread Risk Reversal ($1.00).

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with only 1 week left in 2021, equity markets showed strength with a rebound from an ugly start.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation while Crude Oil drifts towards the top of a consolidation range. The US Dollar Index continues to consolidate in the uptrend while US Treasuries mark time sideways. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in consolidation as well while Emerging Markets continue lower.

Adult Streaming By Disney+ Star?

When I saw “Disney+”, “adult” and “streaming” all in the same headline my mind immediately went to this, and I bet it did for a lot of you too: Source But alas, that is not exactly what Disney has in mind here as they announce the launch of a Star channel targeted towards adults. Instead it’s really just normal TV shows. The channel debut’s next Tuesday (2/23) and will feature original shows…

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Analog Devices, Ticker: $ADI

Analog Devices, $ADI, bottomed in March and started higher into April. It continued to a top in early June and has been consolidating there since. The RSI is moving higher in the bullish zone with the MACD crossing higher. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Cincinnati Financial, Ticker: $CINF

Cincinnati Financial, $CINF, did not follow the broader market when it reversed higher in March. Instead the stock continued to move lower, making a bottom in May. Since then it has moved higher, and ended last week back near the June high. The RSI is rising and bullish with the MACD positive and moving up. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Walt Disney, Ticker: $DIS

Walt Disney, $DIS, tarted higher in March and continued to a top at the 200 day SMA in June. It pulled back from there and made a higher low at the end of the month before reversing higher. Now it is meeting resistance again with the RSI rising in the bullish zone and the MACD crossed up and moving higher. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Nasdaq, Ticker: $NDAQ

Nasdaq, $NDAQ, rapidly dropped through March but then nearly totally recovered within a month. It slowed the pace higher into June and then moved to a new high into July. It is consolidating now with the RSI in the bullish zone and the MACD crossed up and positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Weyerhaeuser, Ticker: $WY

Weyerhaeuser, $WY, ran to a low in March, giving up nearly 60% of the stock’s value. The rebound has been slower than the market but is continuing with the break out of a symmetrical triangle Friday. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD crossing up. Look for continuation to participate…..

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week.  These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into July Options Expiration sees the equity markets are showing renewed strength.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates over support. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the downside while US Treasuries possibly may be resuming their uptrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the drive higher while Emerging Markets also move to the upside.

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

American Express, Ticker: $AXP

American Express, $AXP, made a double top 2 weeks ago and then drove lower as market sentiment changed. It is now back to April 2019 levels after a 5 day fall. The RSI is oversold and the MACD is negative and falling. Look for a reversal to participate…..

Walt Disney, Ticker: $DIS

Walt Disney, $DIS, was holding around the 200 day SMA until a gap down and continuation last week. The RSI is oversold and more so than at the December 2018 low. The MACD is falling and at multi-year lows. Look for a reversal to participate…..

Eaton, Ticker: $ETN

Eaton, $ETN, blew out to the upside at the start of February and peaked just over a week ago. It gapped down and fell back last week. The RSI is now oversold with the MACD falling and negative. Look for a reversal to participate…..

JP Morgan, Ticker: $JPM

JP Morgan, $JPM, took off to the upside in October and made a top at the end of the year. It tried to retest and fell just short of that top before crashing down last week. The RSI is oversold and the MACD is falling and negative. Look for a reversal to participate…..

Lockheed Martin, Ticker: $LMT

Lockheed Martin, $LMT, broke above resistance at the start of the year and rose to a top 2 weeks ago. It fell hard with the market last week. The RSI went into oversold territory with the MACD dropping and negative. Look for a reversal to participate…..

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week.  These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the first 2 months of the year in the books, saw equity markets had their worst week in years, driving lower with alacrity never seen before.

Elsewhere look for Gold to pullback while Crude Oil continues to drive lower. The US Dollar Index looks to continue lower in the short term while US Treasuries prices set record highs. The Shanghai Composite looks to pullback after its move higher while Emerging Markets move lower in broad consolidation.

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Adobe, Ticker: $ADBE

Adobe, $ADBE, rose from a December low and met resistance in the end of April. It pulled back, consolidating the move, to a low at the end of May and then reversed. The move higher plateaued in July and it has pulled back again in August. The RSI is stalled and running flat as the MACD is avoiding a cross up with price on support. Look for a break down to participate…..

Amgen, Ticker: $AMGN

Amgen, $AMGN, bottomed in May after a break of support. It stalled on a move higher in early July and reversed to a higher low. It came back to retest resistance and then moved higher after a brief digestion. Since then it has consolidated but Friday fell back hard to support. The RSI is pulling back from overbought with the MACD about to cross down. Look for a break of support to participate…..

CBOE, Ticker: $CBOE

CBOE, $CBOE, has risen steadily out of a base ending in April. It has had a couple of consolidative pullbacks along the way to the current peak. As it sits on support the RSI is pulling back in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed down. Look for a break of support to participate….

Walt Disney, Ticker: $DIS

Walt Disney, $DIS, gapped up over resistance in April and rose to a peak. It could not hold and pulled back to support for the month of May. Another push higher made a higher high, but this also did not hold and it is now back at support. The RSI is into the bearish zone with the MACD failing to cross up. Look for a break of support to participate…..

Sealed Air, Ticker: $SEE

Sealed Air, $SEE, started higher in October and stalled into November. It pulled back to a higher low and reversed in December leading to a top in April. It pulled back from there and has been bouncing over support since. The RSI is falling in the bearish zone with the MACD falling and negative. Look for a continued drop through support to participate…..

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week.  These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into the last week of August sees the equity markets have taken another body blow and are back at support.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in its uptrend while Crude Oil continues to move lower. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to drift higher while US Treasuries are pausing in their uptrend. The Shanghai Composite is giving a short term reversal higher while Emerging Markets continue to the downside.