#$five

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Bank of NY Mellon, $BK, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

Citigroup, $C, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

Five Below, $FIVE, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

GE Aerospace, $GE, comes into the week rising out of a pullback. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for continuation to participate…

United Airlines, $UAL, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the first week of February in the books, saw equity markets show resilience recovering after a midweek trip up in a data light week.

Elsewhere, look for Gold to regroup around $5000/oz digesting the long move up while Crude Oil moves sideways in the consolidation range. The US Dollar Index is showing some strength rising off a 4 year low while US Treasuries continue to hold in the lower end of the consolidation zone and looking better lower. The Shanghai Composite looks to be pausing in the uptrend while Emerging Markets have reset momentum gauges look ready for new all-time highs in their uptrend.

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Cigna, Ticker: $CI

Cigna, $CI, started last week testing all-time high from January but fell back immediately. It ended the week making a lower low. The RSI also made a lower low as it is at the edge of the bearish zone while the MACD crossed down. Look for continuation to participate lower.....

DexCom, Ticker: $DXCM

DexCom, $DXCM, started higher in October last year after gapping down. It gapped higher in August and ran to a top in early September. It has traded in a range ever since that gap up. The RSI is pulling back in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed down. Look for a break of support to participate.....

Five Below, Ticker: $FIVE

Five Below, $FIVE, gapped higher in June and then consolidated for 2 months. That was followed by a second move higher and a gap to the all-time high in September. Since then it has been moving lower, and ended last week back at the June gap level. The RSI is falling and bearish with the MACD falling. Look for a push into the gap to participate.....

Grainger, Ticker: $GWW

Grainger, $GWW, rose steadily to a top in August. It plateaued there for a month and then started moving lower in October. It found support at the end of the month and moved back higher to meet resistance at a lower high. Last week ended with it reversing back lower. The RSI is falling into the bearish zone and the MACD is crossing down. Look for continuation to participate.....

Workday, Ticker: $WDAY

Workday, $WDAY, broke above consolidation in August only to sputter and top at the end of the month. It pulled back to the low of the prior consolidation and started a new range that lasted until the end of November. That is when it gapped up and ran to a top last week. Consolidating now, it has a RSI pulling back from overbought and a MACD flattening. Look for a consolidation break to participate.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week.These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with only 2 full weeks left in the trading year sees equities unable to shake out of this pullback and some sectors looking as they may be worsening.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to move higher while Crude Oil is poised to bounce in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index continues to consolidate while US Treasuries move up in a short term trend. The Shanghai Composite continues to show signs of a possible consolidation in its pullback with Emerging Markets continuing their long term downtrend.

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Commerce Bancshares, Ticker: $CBSH

Commerce Bancshares, $CBSH, were running higher using the 50 day SMA as support for all of 2018 until it broke below it in September. It held just under but then dropped further continuing down through the 200 day SMA. A bounce attempted met resistance at the 200 day SMA and it retested the low before a second move higher. Friday ended over the 200 day SMA again and made a higher high. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

Edwards Lifesciences, Ticker: $EW

Edwards Lifesciences, $EW, burst higher out of consolidation in September only to fall back as quickly as it rose. The pullback found support at the 200 day SMA and bounced. A relapse to the 200 day SMA then saw a second reversal and move up to a higher high Friday. The RSI is rising towards the bullish zone with the MACD crossed up. Look for a push over resistance to participate higher.....

Five Below, Ticker: $FIVE

Five Below, $FIVE, moved up out of consolidation in June and then gapped higher. It held there consolidating the move for 2 months before it started higher again and gapped to another higher in September. It has been pulling back from that high since. It found support last week at the 100 day SMA and reversed to end the week higher. The RSI is rising towards the bullish zone with the MACD crossed up. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

Illumina, Ticker: $ILMN

Illumina, $ILMN, drove higher out of consolidation in August of 2017, continuing to a top in September this year. Since then it has pulled back, finding support just above its 200 day SMA. It ended last week moving higher to short term resistance with the RSI breaking above the mid line and the MACD crossed up and rising. Look for a push over resistance to participate higher.....

United Continental, Ticker: $UAL

United Continental, $UAL, stared higher out of consolidation in July. it reached a peak in September and pulled back. That pullback touched the 100 day SMA and then reversed, back near the high. A second pullback to a higher low saw a reversal and ended last week back at the high. The RSI is knocking on the door of a move into the bullish zone with the MACD turning positive. Look for a push through resistance to participate higher.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which as November begins sees the equity markets found support and bounced ahead of the elections Tuesday.

Elsewhere look for Gold to move higher in the short term while Crude Oil continues to pullback in its uptrend. The US Dollar Index is in a short term uptrend while US Treasuries are dropping lower. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets are looking like they may be ready to reverse their downtrends.

Volatility remains elevated but has settled back into the teens keeping some pressure on equities but less than recently allowing some upward movement. The equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ reacted with positive weeks, the IWM the strongest. They are all showing signs they may reverse higher as well. That is good news as it was the IWM that led all markets lower. The new week should be interesting. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

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Salesforce (CRM): Acquisitions have been a key part of the company’s growth strategy. Over the past few years new acquisitions and partnerships have helped Salesforce improve and build its native offerings. Year to date the company has completed 9 transactions, the most recent being the buyout of Demandware. The rapid adoption of its platform has propelled earnings and revenue growth quarter after quarter. Revenue growth has exceeded 20% for 8 consecutive quarters and counting while earnings have been nothing to take lightly. The stock is up 14% from a year earlier and historically increases 3% following an earnings report. Competition, currency headwinds and higher operating costs from continued acquisitions could hamper growth this quarter. The long term goal of Microsoft’s acquisition of LinkedIn earlier this year is to challenge Salesforce for CRM market share. This could be a long term problem for Salesforce but is unlikely to be brought up in the near term.

Five Below (FIVE): Discounters have prospered in this current retail environment that has favored value channels. Five Below has been along for the ride with the stock and earnings thriving. The past 3 quarters have delivered over 20% gains on both the top and bottom line. Year to date the stock is up 38% and historically increases 2% following an earnings report. Tomorrow’s report is expected to continue this trend with a projected 60% jump in earnings and 22% increase in revenue. Unfortunately similar to  the dollar stores, expectations might be set to high for Five Below. The dollar stores fell short of expectations last week not because they had a bad quarters but because expectations were too high. This problem could be echoed if tomorrow’s report falls short.

BOX (BOX): Quarterly results have followed a universal theme plaguing the tech sector: mounting losses and decelerating revenue growth. Box has reported double digit revenue growth and unprofitability in each quarter as a publicly traded company. In the year and half since its IPO the stock is down nearly 42% but has slowly recovered. This year shares are only down 4% providing investors with hope for a quick turnaround. Investment in security, compliance and administrative technology should improve adoption rates. Partnerships with leading enterprise technology companies like Cognizant and Adobe are expected to do the same. Increased investments are likely to take its toll on margins as well as profits, which have otherwise struggled

Shoe Carnival (SCVL): Recent reports have followed a pattern of beat, miss, beat, and so on. If this is any indication of what will happen tomorrow then investors should expect to see a beat with a pop in the stock. This would add to the 28% gains made this year and 17% in the past 12 months. Unfortunately earnings don’t work this way. It’s more likely that we see results similar to what DSW printed yesterday. DSW reported in line results and weak guidance which sent shares plunging nearly 9%.

Five Below ($FIVE) emerged to fill the gap between dollar store and those offering products for more than $5.  Or so it would seem.  With a range of 41 to $5 on any item, it is a step up from the dollar stores, although they look pretty similar inside.

With all the hype of an economic slowdown (I am not in that camp for the record), you would think that the stock would be doing very well.  In fact the stock has been in a funk, moving sideways to down through the back half of 2015. With the turn of the calendar to 2016 though it is showing signs of life and now the stock looks like a good buy.

The chart above show many technical factors aligning, creating this environment.  First is the Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern.  This triggered with a push through the neckline to end last week.  This pattern gives a price objective to at least 44.80.  Next the last step higher that created the right shoulder was a run of about $6.  This gives a Measured move higher to about 42.80 on a break of the current consolidation.

The Bollinger Bands® have turned up, allowing price to rise.  And the momentum indicators are bullish, with the MACD crossed and rising and the RSI near 70.  Finally the SMA's are starting to turn higher as well.  The 20 and 50 day are rising and the 100 day looks to join then soon.  So even if you do not shop at Five Below, it seem time to consider buying the stock.