#$qlik

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers.

CBOE, Ticker: $CBOE

CBOE, $CBOE, had a long pullback guided by falling trend resistance until finding a bottom in May. It broke that trend with a move higher and has been consolidating against resistance since. Friday saw the price back at resistance and above the rising 200 day SMA. It has support for more upside from a rising and bullish RSI and a MACD about to cross up.

Danaher, Ticker: $DHR

Danaher, $DHR, rose off of the October 2014 low quickly, but then consolidated for the last 7 months. It has a false break out over resistance in May that did not last even one day, but continued a broad series of higher highs and higher lows. The RSI remains in the bullish zone and is rising with the MACD crossed up and rising.

Dunkin' Brands, Ticker: $DNKN

Dunkin' Brands, $DNKN, was on the radar for a trade higher after the Cup it formed in May. The price did move higher but stopped short of the target of the Cup and Handle pattern at 56.75. Or has it? Now the price is consolidating against resistance with a bullish and rising RSI and a rising MACD. Not how all the SMA's are rising and parallel, a great trend.

St. Joe, Ticker: $JOE

St. Joe, $JOE, had a long run lower to a bottom in January. It looked to be consolidating then and broke out to the upside. But the move back higher out of consolidation turned out to be a Dead Cat bounce and it started back lower. Now it has consolidated again for the last 6 weeks and is back against resistance. As it arrives the RSI is pushing into the bullish zone and rising while the MACD is rising.

Qlik Technologies, Ticker: $QLIK

Qlik Technologies, $QLIK, started a move higher out of consolidation in February. The rise stalled out in May and it moved sideways until a pullback that ended last week. The last red candle, out of the Bollinger Bands® makes it interesting as a possible reversal. The following Harami Hammer doji adds to it. the confirmation higher and back into the Bollinger Bands with follow through Friday seals the deal. The RSI is rising as well now with only the MACD diverging. But even that is starting to slow its descent.

If you like what you see sign up here for how to trade these, more ideas and deeper analysis.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into the heat of Summer sees the Equity markets looking vulnerable on the short time frame and just sideways on the longer timeframe.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue the broad consolidation with a downward bias while Crude Oil looks to move lower. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to consolidate in a tightening range sideways while US Treasuries are consolidating but biased lower. The Shanghai Composite is crashing and shows no sign of letting up yet while Emerging Markets may be bouncing in their downtrend. Volatility looks to remain low but above recent levels and with a risk of more upside easing the tailwind it has given the equity indexes.

Here is some untied, generally directional options activity that caught my eye during Tuesday’s trading.  One theme that seemed clear among the large blocks of single stocks was rolling out bullish views:

1. MCD - when stock was 93.43 early in the trading session a trader rolled a bullish view, selling 35,000 Jan 95 calls at .90 to close and bought 35,000 Feb 95 calls for 2.27 to open.  The company is confirmed to report their fourth quarter results on Jan 23rd, prior to the market open.

2. DD - when stock was 71.20 a trader rolled a bullish view down and out, selling 28,500 Jan regular expiration 74.50 calls at .16 to close and buying 28,500 Jan 23rd 72 calls for 1.06 to open.  What’s interesting about this roll is that the company has confirmed their q4 earnings will be Jan 27th (here) so the roll does not catch the event.

3. JPM - saw a large call purchase,. When stock was 58.98 a trader paid 1.54 for 56,000 Feb 60 calls, 67,000 traded on the day.  Total options volume was more than 2x average daily volume with calls outnumbering puts about 3 to 1.  This trade represents about $8.6 million in premium, with the break-even on February expiration at a level where the stock was trading at shortly after yesterday’s close.

4. GM - stock saw a huge reversal on the day, up more than 3% from the lows.  When the stock was 35.04 a trader rolled out a bullish view, selling 25,000 Jan 36 calls at .28 to close and bought 15,000 Feb 6th weekly 38 calls for .28 to open. GM is confirmed to report Q4 results Feb 4th prior to the open.

5. QLIK - a $2.7 billion market cap enterprise software company. When the stock was 29.83, a trader sold 2850 Jan 21 calls at 8.75 to close and rolled the winning bullish view out to May buying 12,000 of the May 30/37 call spreads for 2.50 to open. What’s interesting about this trade is that the premium received on the closing position is far greater than the potential gains of the May call spread. So it appears the trader went from having unlimited upside with the Jan position to a slightly more conservative view the second time around

6. CS - European bank stocks continue their nasty year to date decline with the EuroStoxx Bank Index down 5% year to date.  In the afternoon when Credit Suisse was trading 23.81 a trader bought 10,000 of the March 25 calls to open for 75 cents.

Related Posts:

Name That Trade – $MU Shu Pork (1)

MorningWord 01/06/15: Oil’s Cold War (1)

MorningWord 01/05/15: You’ve Been #Honeydicked by the $SPX (1)