November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-two DJIA (since 1950) and NASDAQ (since 1971) month. November is best for S&P 500 (since 1950), Russell 1000 (since 1979) and Russell 2000 (since 1979). Average performance in all years ranges from 1.7% by S&P 500 to a solid 2.5% by Russell 2000.

In post-election years, November’s market prowess is essentially unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 14 of the last 17 post-election years since 1953 with an average gain of 1.9%. DJIA has been up 11-straight post-election year Novembers. DJIA’s last losing post-election year November was all the way back in 1973 (-14.0%, Arab oil embargo began 10/19/1973). S&P 500 has been up in 13 of the past 17 post-election years. Small caps perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 8 of the past 10 post-election years, averaging 2.8%. The only real blemishes in the November post-election year record are 1969 (DJIA –5.1%) and 1973 (DJIA –14.0%, OPEC oil embargo).

January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations has historically propelled stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and DJIA since 1950. January is the last month of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.

DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those seventeen Januarys with three in a row, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and then again in 2014 to 2016. January 2009 has the dubious honor of being the worst January on record for DJIA (-8.8%) and S&P 500 (-8.6%) since 1901 and 1931 respectively. The early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic spoiled January in 2020 & 2021 as DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 all suffered declines in 2020. In 2021, DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 declined.

As you can see in the chart above of the Typical January Performance over the last 21 years diverging market performance across the major indexes like we saw today is not unusual behavior during January in recent years. Since 2001, the S&P 500, DJIA, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have all declined eleven times in twenty-one years in January. DJIA and S&P have posted minor average losses while R1K and R2K have posted fractional gains.

Over the last 21 years, only NASDAQ has posted a full-month average gain of 1.0% up 12 of 21. All started January positive, only to surrender early-month gains by the end of the month. Weakness has historically accelerated just after mid-month, around the eleventh trading day.

In midterm years, January ranks near the bottom since 1950. Large-caps have been the worst with S&P 500 ranking #10 (third worst) with DJIA and Russell 1000 ranking #9. Technology and small-cap shares fare slightly better in the rankings, but small-cap average performance is still negative and NASDAQ is only barely positive.

On pages 112 and 114 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2022 we illustrate that the January Effect, where small caps begin to outperform large caps, actually tends to start in mid-December. Early signs of the January Effect can be seen when comparing iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) to SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) since around December 15. Historically, the majority of small-cap outperformance is normally done by mid-February, but strength can last until mid-May when indices typically reach a seasonal high.

In the above chart, 43 years of daily data for the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies are divided by the Russell 1000 index of largest companies, and then compressed into a single year to show an idealized yearly pattern. When the graph is descending, large caps are outperforming smaller companies; when the graph is rising, smaller companies are moving up faster than their larger brethren. Small-caps have historically peaked versus large-caps in late-May to early June and tend to underperform until sometime in the fourth quarter.

So much for the “January Effect” this year as small cap stocks measured by the Russell 2000 have been underperforming so far in 2022. The “January Effect” (not to be confused with our January Barometer) is the tendency for small caps to outperform large caps in the month of January. As we feature on pages 112 and 114 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2022, “Most of the So-Called January Effect Takes Place in the Last Half of December.” This did occur this time around as the Russell 2000 small cap index gained 2.3% from December 15, 2021 through December 31 vs. 1.3% for the Russell 1000 large cap index.

As you can see here in the table above this is the second worst start to the year for the Russell 2000 since inception in 1979. Based year-to-date performance as of the 5th to last trading day of January 2022’s YTD loss of -10.7% is the second worst. Of the 18 years listed January was down in all but one year, 2007.

Over the recent 21 years April is the top-ranked month for DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000. April ranks #2 S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Average gains over the period range from a low of 1.91% by NASDAQ to a respectable 2.30% by DJIA. The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. In fact the second half of April is just as strong over the recent 21-year period.