Warrior Estimation Blog

Problem how to estimate proc rating to in conclusion have dmg. Its not trivial but i had some ideal and used some basic high school maths. 

So i counted chance to have n+ scores with p% mastery bonus

first lets present data

Experiment time = 60 sec

action that can proc mastery = 60 / 1.5   = 40 gcd actions  + 15 swings ( 4.0 weapon speed im pesimistic )

total 55 actioncs lets take some movement and round it up to 50

n = 50

k = numbers of scores 3+  is 3 or more scores.

lets see what is our chance to roll 15 free 50% weapon dmg swings

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 16% effective chance 0.397131067803524%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 17% effective chance 0.705598150933795%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 18% effective chance 1.20735079619803%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 19% effective chance 1.97291782953142%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 20% effective chance 3.08176952589722%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 21% effective chance 4.6161731234321%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 22% effective chance 6.65348540495676%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 23% effective chance 9.25769195706046%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 24% effective chance 12.4712544945844%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 25% effective chance 16.308383778426%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 26% effective chance 20.7507087745201%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 27% effective chance 25.74599570413%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 28% effective chance 31.2101476275367%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 29% effective chance 37.0322659819191%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 30% effective chance 43.0821581891208%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 31% effective chance 49.2193915594247%

n = 50 k = 15 mastery = 32% effective chance 55.302858484848%

maybe 10 ? 

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 16% effective chance 16.6235444542876%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 17% effective chance 22.0352162723045%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 18% effective chance 28.1306163492716%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 19% effective chance 34.7356930015886%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 20% effective chance 41.6454854010859%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 21% effective chance 48.6439072494883%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 22% effective chance 55.5227856833778%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 23% effective chance 62.0977484426542%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 24% effective chance 68.2194808291373%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 25% effective chance 73.7798256132147%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 26% effective chance 78.7130079318167%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 27% effective chance 82.992838414328%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 28% effective chance 86.6270543247784%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 29% effective chance 89.6500257991133%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 30% effective chance 92.1149393161594%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 31% effective chance 94.0863422636408%

n = 50 k = 10 mastery = 32% effective chance 95.6336562444027%

or 5 ?

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 16% effective chance 83.2436392367373%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 17% effective chance 87.4182094870835%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 18% effective chance 90.7189866577317%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 19% effective chance 93.2695373152051%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 20% effective chance 95.1987053106193%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 21% effective chance 96.6289325122669%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 22% effective chance 97.6693797550068%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 23% effective chance 98.4127676990835%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 24% effective chance 98.9348333060677%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 25% effective chance 99.2954341000473%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 26% effective chance 99.5405384003214%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 27% effective chance 99.7045550545071%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 28% effective chance 99.8126468467637%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 29% effective chance 99.8828229842208%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 30% effective chance 99.9277156263488%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 31% effective chance 99.9560179746449%

n = 50 k = 5 mastery = 32% effective chance 99.9736045796385%

5 shows it is good number so this mastery bonus would give us 

a minimum income of dmg 5*0.5*WEAPON_DMG per minute ~2.5 WDmg. But this is for basic stats if we would be able to  roll and bring mastery with stats to level of 32% proc chance we can think that minimum dmg inc will be 15*0.5*WEAPON_DMG ~ 7.5 WDmg. And this is nice.

So will be arms stacking Mastery in Cata ?

Hi ! At night we had new build deploy on beta relm. Now changes can seem a bit O_o but they are fine i think. It is goind in good direction ? (i hope so).

Ok lets roll.

Arms

New build imo is 

http://cata.wowhead.com/talent#LGbccRMRufzcf

With 2 free points to choose anything. Why this build ? Well nothing much changed in build philosophy ;). Except Collosal Smash!

Spec changes:

Collosal Smash - new attack, weapon dmg +120 and effect, next 6 sec your op, ms, bt or hs will avoid ARMOR ( 100%+ arp!) this is nice

Sudden Death grants your melee attacks chance to reset CD on Collosal Smash

Improved OP talent is off but Taste of Blood was merged and grants +60% crit chance on OP

OP cd was downed to 1 sec, still off-gcd =)

They added "Strikes of Opportinuty" Mastery for arms 16% + mastery bonus chance to proc free 50% weapon dmg attack. ( chance is 2 x past but dmg is only 50% ) still nice chance is bigger maybe with some mastery it will not be hard to make it 20% ?

Fury

New build imo is

http://cata.wowhead.com/talent#LG0cZffrcRdk0cbo

Again 2 free points for anything. Why i went SMF ? its obvious we will need it to get max uptime from enrage ( now it procs from hits we make at 9% ! )

Spec changes:

BT cd is now 3 sec down from 4! nice ( 1 gcd to do other things like...raging blow ?)

Unshackled Fury basicly mastery bonus that gives you 80% more from enrage effects

and many less important ( can be seen in talent calculator )

Protection

New Build imo is

http://cata.wowhead.com/talent#LMZhbZcfGdRrRzou

With 2 free points for Blitz, Incite or thing. Personaly i think Rude Interuption is niceeee but Blitz also, for trash packs even great =)

Spec changes

Shield Block cd is 1 min back from 30sec.

Critical Block +10% block +10% chance to get critical block ( mastery bonus )

TC +25% dmg

Shockwave dmg is now 75% AP up from 38% =)))

Things that hits all warriors is 

Armord to Teeth is GONE :<<<

Hi. I'm thinking about tanks in cataclysm. What they can provide and how changes will work on. My point is to find best tank setup for 10 man raid.

Lets starts with changes

Block Value! this is a big change we will not have any block value/rating but we will have "block" it will work like rating and block will be flat 30% dmg reduction. For a Warrior/Paladin this is a big change

Debufs stacking was changed, more like reduced.

AoE tanking, each tank in beta recived AoE tools to hold agro hard

Vitality Warrior and Paladin gained 10% vitality as a baseline, other tanks will recive other numbers. DK got 9% and Druid 15%

Vengeance - new mechanics to keep up with threat

So in my opinion in 10 man it will be all about buffs and raidwalls. So obvious choice would be 2 x paladins for 2 x Raid wall. Yes this seems to be optimal setup :/. But i will try to make it work do some deeper analize.

Raid buffs from tanks

Warrior - Sunder, Commanding, Thunder Clap, Demo Shout, Battle Shout ) exclusive with commanding)

Paladin - Raid wall, Bok/BoM, Aura

Druid - Trauma, Druid Buff ( probably will be homogeni with BoK )

DK - +10% ap, -10% inc dmg, -10% attack speed of boss

All seems to be nice. But what would be best in raid setup ?. I think Warrior + Paladin.

They bring most utility and imo they are a dream team for 10 man guild in cata.

But what builds ?

Lets roll with paladin, he has two path to choose one is threat heavy and one is with more survival. If we will assume Warrior is doing vindication debuf.

threat/dmg - http://cata.wowhead.com/talent#sZIMGfRGoRGof

survival - http://cata.wowhead.com/talent#schbZIMGfRMoRGo

So having paladin as offtank is a great deal, he has nice aoe agro, tools to survive and tools to lower dmg on raid.

Now warrior. warrior has one tight build ( current build ) 

http://cata.wowhead.com/talent#LZhfZIfGkbdbRou

It has 2 free points i have put in revange(i think best choice). Build has good survival and nice output of threat ( both single / aoe ) 

Just asked my self today, what is the chance of scoring 6 crits out in 10 tries.

So first thing normal person think is ... with 60% crit chance i should have always 6/10 scores.... nope thats wrong. And Bernoulli hit us hard.

It looks like this ( bottom axis = crit chance, top axis is a chance to score 6/10 crits )

Ouch ;X ~25% chance to have 6/10 with 60% crit chance.

So how in Wotlk content weapon dmg was versus attack power based attacks ?

AP:1000 BT:450.0 AP:2000 BT:900.0 AP:3000 BT:1350.0  <- start of wotlk AP:4000 BT:1800.0 AP:5000 BT:2250.0 AP:6000 BT:2700.0 AP:7000 BT:3150.0 AP:8000 BT:3600.0

PATCH 3.0 MS:986.0 - 1290.0 PATCH 3.1 MS:1198.1 - 1502.1 PATCH 3.2 MS:1410.2 - 1714.2 PATCH 3.3 MS:1622.3 - 1926.3

Ekhm yes... Starving to death.

Currently in beta *they* say. Rage is normalized basing on weapon speed.

Formula is

Arms - WS * 4.6 per swing

Fury - WS * 3.8 per swing

So lets see the numbers:

Fury rage WS: 1.0 RAGE(per swing): 3.8 RAGE(per swing, mh + oh): 5.7 WS: 1.4 RAGE(per swing): 5.32 RAGE(per swing, mh + oh): 7.98 WS: 1.6 RAGE(per swing): 6.08 RAGE(per swing, mh + oh): 9.12 WS: 1.8 RAGE(per swing): 6.84 RAGE(per swing, mh + oh): 10.26 WS: 2.0 RAGE(per swing): 7.6 RAGE(per swing, mh + oh): 11.4 WS: 2.4 RAGE(per swing): 9.12 RAGE(per swing, mh + oh): 13.68 WS: 2.6 RAGE(per swing): 9.88 RAGE(per swing, mh + oh): 14.82

Arms rage WS: 3.0 RAGE(per swing): 13.8 WS: 3.3 RAGE(per swing): 15.18 WS: 3.4 RAGE(per swing): 15.64 WS: 3.5 RAGE(per swing): 16.1 WS: 3.7 RAGE(per swing): 17.0

Wow. At night we had new build on beta.  This is  a nice speed up ( 2 beta builds one week ! ) And there are changes !!!! a lot of them.

Rage normalization hit us hard but i will post about it in next post.

Arms warrior got a nice change. We will not make 1.25 rage but we will have a talnted 2 min cd cooldown that will make our skills cost 0 rage and we will continue to generate rage. This cd is called "Deadly Calm" nice one here =). Also Overpower was added under impale effect basicly it means this +50% crit skill will get extra 10% dmg from crit. Why 10% not 20% as tooltip ? Crit number is 200% so 200% / 220% give us 10% more dmg.

In Fury tree there is new imba talent. Battle trance. It gives 15% after  Mortal strike, Shield Slam or Bloodthrist that next attack will not consume rage. Must have! I don't know if blizzard is good at maths but its damn true that fury will gain from it most =).

If we will take a period of time 120 sec. (it is 2 minutes =) ) We will have in it 24 Mortal Strikes or 20 shield slams or 30 bloodthirsts. If protection guy will have full rage bar anyway and he can say ok i don't need this extra free attack other guys might compare.

Builds:

Arms - http://www.wowtal.com/#k=Za1KZ23GX.9q4.warrior

Fury - http://www.wowtal.com/#k=GFprMHTV.9q4.warrior

Protection - http://www.wowtal.com/#k=RwMXX4mO.9q4.warrior

Now the small comment

Protection:

One last point i put in rend was a free point, probably it is the place for it. Impending Victory is thing we can count on and it is on a Bloodlust part of most of fights I personaly think 1 point is all it can eat. Rend will be ( after sclaing change ) usable even in raids if they will make 2.* tanking weapons.

Arms: 

Its more like improve execute 2/2 vs incite 2/3 choice . But after rage normalization its more like execute then incite. Lambs and Sloughter also got a change since last build it is not +38% haste next swing but +16% dmg from next EXEC/ MS/ OP. Battle trance is now must have.

Fury:

Not much changed in build, you still aim for in my opinion SMF ( Single Minded Fury ) there are lots of things pro to it. My build is still "pro" Cleaves with Cleave as rage dump not HS.

Hi. I just wanted to sell small tip how to make leveling warrior easy in arms spec. Currently im levleing from time to time my addon development toon on Sunstrider named Ellys. 

Today leveling before 68-70 Northrend quests is mostly connected in running dungeons via random finder with good group ( if you find noobs leave and quests ). Most people say that fury is better for leveling but for me before Bloodthirst its much better to be arms and also i dont like zerk stance for levleing because that i get more dmg :-/.

In arms tree you have sweeping strikes, and its a great tool.  Low level warrior constantly fight with rage starv so you need to glyph it ( no better choice before MS / BT  glyphs ).

So if glyphed you can bind it under each skill and it will make 20-30% of your damage in each pull in dungeons. Nice tool.

Builds i suggest for leveling

15 lvl -

30 lvl - http://www.wowhead.com/talent#Lhrhbfcz

40 lvl - http://www.wowhead.com/talent#LhrhbfIp00bo

45 lvl - http://www.wowhead.com/talent#LhrhbfIp00bRd

50 lvl - http://www.wowhead.com/talent#LhrhbfIp00bRduz

YoYo! Rend formula was changed!. 

It is now 0.857 * WS * AP + 0.6 * mwd + 0.6 * MWD up from 0.714 * WS * AP + 0.5 * mwd + 0.5 MWD

WS = Weapon Speed

mwd - min weapon damage

MWD - max weapon damage

AP - attack Powah

Hmmm

Lets look how it is working now

WS / AP scaling for new formula Shadows Edge

Dmg scaling with WS (AP = 5k) WS: 1.5 RESULT: 7734.9 WS: 1.6 RESULT: 8163.4 WS: 2.0 RESULT: 9877.4 WS: 2.6 RESULT: 12448.4 WS: 3.0 RESULT: 14162.4 WS: 3.3 RESULT: 15447.9 WS: 3.4 RESULT: 15876.4 WS: 3.5 RESULT: 16304.9 WS: 3.7 RESULT: 17161.9

Dmg scaling with AP (WS = 3.7) AP: 1000 RESULT: 4478.3 AP: 3000 RESULT: 10820.1 AP: 5000 RESULT: 17161.9 AP: 7000 RESULT: 23503.7 AP: 9000 RESULT: 29845.5 AP: 11000 RESULT: 36187.3 AP: 13000 RESULT: 42529.1 AP: 15000 RESULT: 48870.9

Yo guys!. Today is the BUILD DAY. We have loads of new changes. Main focus of warrior changes in this build is on fury. Fury gained new attack which is "hitable" only when enraged. Deathwish is now in "Block" Tier 3. We have to take it to take rest but i think its not a problem =).

Changes to notice are:

Enrage will proc from AoE dmg on boss!

Fury has new attack!

Arms has new PvP knockback and stun skill NICE!

Prot Gained new skill Thunderstruck YAY consecration for warriors. I love it!

Anyway my suggestion for this week are:

Arms - http://www.wowtal.com/#k=lvFflAuX.9ob.warrior

Fury - http://www.wowtal.com/#k=GFprwKIZ.9ob.warrior

Protection - http://www.wowtal.com/#k=-NFuCzSZ.9ob.warrior

Hi.

First of all simple maths (with rage normalization.)

FIGHT_TIME - time of fight

SWING_TIMER - white swing timer

RAGE_PER_SWING - rage you gain by mainhand swing

HUMAN_FACTOR - simpe human factor lowering rage incom but stupid jumping =)

all rage gained during fight is ->

SWING_RAGE =  ( FIGHT_TIME / SWING_TIMER )*HUMAN_FACTOR*RAGE_PER_SWING 

ANGER_MANAGMENT_RAGE = (FIGHT_TIME / 3.0 )

so

FIGHT_RAGE = ( FIGHT_TIME / SWING_TIMER )*HUMAN_FACTOR*RAGE_PER_SWING + (FIGHT_TIME / 3.0 )

Lets make 3 simulations: (all will last 6 minutes, so anger managment will give you 120 rage)

a) Rage per swing 50,  perfect human = zer fails, time of fight 6 minutes and swing timer 3.0

during fight you gain 6120 rage

% of total rage by Anger Managment = 1.96%

a) Rage per swing 40,  perfect human = zer fails, time of fight 6 minutes and swing timer 3.7

during fight you gain 4011.89189189189 rage

% of total rage by Anger Managment = 2.99110751959969%

c) Rage per swing 40, not perfect human = some fails, fight 6 minutes and swing time 3.0

during fight you gain 3622.7027027027 rage

% of total rage by Anger Managment =  3.3124440490245%

As we can see number it gives you are on the level of nothing. 

What i suggest is to give Anger Managment extra mechanics:

Each 6 sec your next ability will have extra effect:

-Charge,  next ability cost 5 rage less

-Rend,  next ability will have 1% more chance to crit, if used with > 60 rage lowers gcd by 0.5 sec for next 2 abilities

-Mortal Strike, extends time of rend by 3 sec, if used with >80 rage refresh rend on target or apply if is not present

-Overpower,  add to target sunder armor effect , if used with more then 50 rage adds 3 stacks of sunder armor

-Slam, makes next slam instant

This is my suggestion to make arms rotation truly anger managment and epic.

Hi again =). Just few hours ago we had a new build on beta with new top 31 point talent specs. And now i can say simply i LOVE them.  I'm 100% sure warrior had some love from devs this time and it looks like it is more less final.

I think we will play ...

Arms:

http://www.wowtal.com/#k=lvFfcRJg.9mn.warrior

Prot:

http://www.wowtal.com/#k=3vv8zfa7.9mn.warrior

2/2 rend vs 2/3 Heroic Strike... needs some numbers and maths

Fury:

http://www.wowtal.com/#k=ZYdp8gZV.9mn.warrior

2/2 rend seems to be must or healing bonus... waste :-/  but in general Single Minded Fury and Titans Grip will have same build.

More maths, numbers and analize soon =)

Hi guys. Today I have new portion of changes posted by "GC" for new warriors design in cataclysm. 

Unreleting Assault is GONE, but cooldown reduction is moved to improved Overpower talent (blue: http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=25968837407&pageNo=1&sid=1)

Nothing is final about Victory Rush "proc" maybe fury will get new attack. They still are not happy with the current beta design and they don't know if they will want to have 2 procs in Fury [it makes it like Arms](blue: http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=25969017063&pageNo=1&sid=1)

Last Stand is staying but its not said it will be 3 or 2 min cooldown. (blue: http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=25626351370&sid=1&pageNo=2#33)

Thunder clap without cooldown design is not what GC want, maybe more cleaving (blue: http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=25626351370&pageNo=1&sid=1)

Hi guys! This is a total wipe :). I will comment a bit about new changes posted by Ghostcrawler about all talents in cataclysm. 

All the talents gain will be cut by 50% so you will have 41 points

At level 10 you will choose a tree and this will be only talent tree you can use up to spending 31 points / taking last talent

1 talent point each 2 levels

Tree ending talents will mostly stay the same ( ret paladin will get divine storm at 10 so they will have some change here, warriors probably not )

Now changes for warriors. And this is a bit awsome =). Things you get at level 10!

Arms:

Mortal Strike

Anger Managment

Two Hand spec ( +10% dmg to 2 handers )

Fury:

Bloodthirst

<unknown>

<unknown>

Protection:

Shield Slam

Vengeance

Vitality

Now you know more so i can explain the picture above =). With red color is marked talents that are out and its posted by "blue". With blue color i marked talents that have a great chance to gtfo and with blue i marked talents that probably will got to 1 tier and this are two talents Deep Wounds and Blood Craze so it will be a chance to get them being protection warrior.

How will look new talent build ?

I think not special from 5/5/31 to 10/0/31. Why this is better ? Probably the best change is that they are removing junk talents that each of us clicked or simply none of us did. This design will solve new guys build problem because you can't make a bad build if you can read a bit of english from tooltip at level 10.

What with mastery ?

As they state in "blue" old mastery is old and only "3" bonus which is unique to talent tree will stay eg for Arms swing proc chance but this bonus will be learned as passive from trainer at level 78!. It will be buffed with mastery on gear!.

Blue posts:

Mastery change:

http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=25626290470&pageNo=21#409

New Changes post:

http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=25626290449

Hi guys, in this post i would like to say something about spec for Fury Dps using Titans Grip 

build link:

http://cata.wowhead.com/talent#LhbGIoc0VZAbMxGVzxtoVzck

Currently i think this is better choice then Single Minded Fury for dps, why ? Mastery bonus from Fury give you +80% enrage effect making any enrage 1.8 times stronger.

Why wrecking crew ?

Simple math:

1.8 * 10% = 18% its +18% dmg from wrecking crew ( its uptime is 100% currently )

1.8 * 10% * 0.5 = +9% dmg from Blood rage talented 5/5 Fury in Blood and Rel bloodrage so its uptime is 30 sec and cooldown 1 minute.

If we add this two we have +27% of dmg overall.

Isn't it perfect ?

Ok but why ? 2 x 2H ? In arms we have talent Two-Haneded Spec and this talent grant warrior +6% dmg from 2 Hand while in Single Minded Fury we waste insane amout of talent just go get Wrecking Crew

Rend: 

If stance dancing for rend will be ok in fury it will be ok only in Two Hand spec. Why ?

Formula for Rend is  X+((MWB + mwb)/2 + AP/14 * MWS) so it is working good for weapon with high speed 3.0+ and its low for 2.6 or faster weapons.

Rotation:

BT -> VR -> SLAM ( bloodsurge slam proc) -> HS ( dump rage ) or Cleave

Titan Grip fury don't have any skill to spam in rotation like Single Minded can use Cleave ( Single Minded Fury tooltip say it is hitting with both weapons for it )

glossery:

BT = Bloodthirst

VR = Victory Rush (proc, from hs, slam, bt)

SLAM = Slam (proc)

HS = Heroic Strike ( off gcd skill to nuke / dump rage )

Clarification over Pummel and Zer Rage talents

Pummel - i like to interrupt while rogue has to save energy and shaman mana, we can use it to gain rage which is converted to dmg. ~30% - 80% bosses each patch has some mechanics to interrupt.

Hi guys, in this post i would like to focus on Arms spec in PvE dps.

First of all what is the spec:

http://cata.wowhead.com/talent#LhrGuofhqbbRsfRdAbM0GVz

53/23/0

Why, we want to have bladestorm and deathwish. Currently  as arms there is no problem to grab bladestorm but for deathwish we have to invest 23 points in fury.

I grabbed all talents fro PvE dps.

Why deathwish ?

its 20% more dmg for 30 sec. In this time you can use up to 20 gcd skills and you have ~10 white swings so it is ~30 times (dmg * 1.2 dmg) I know each warrior love deathwish. (numbers will be covered in later posts)

Rotation ?

Its more priority list

Keep up Rend (don't clip)

Overpower (proc) 

Execute (proc)

Victory Rush (proc)

Mortal Strike (keep on cd)

Slam 

Heroic Strike (its off gcd, only > 60/70 rage)

O_o yes!