Right now, it's in a weakening trend, but if it collapses in the future, there's still time left!
However, let's touch on the possible outcomes
Let’s reiterate: AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) is one of the fundamental engines of the global climate system thanks to the large amount of heat it transports to the North Atlantic—it’s like the veins carrying blood.
If this circulation weakens very seriously in the long term or collapses, the first and most obvious result would be the formation of a vast subpolar cold blob in the North Atlantic, meaning it would expand much more widely.
Average temperatures in Europe, especially its northern and western regions, could drop; winters might become harsher and more variable.
The weakening of the jet stream and its shift to a more wavy structure could lead to an increase in blocking systems, causing more frequent long-duration heat waves, droughts, and extreme precipitation events.
The climate system wouldn’t become more stagnant but rather more erratic and volatile.
For Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean, the picture is much more complex than a direct cooling scenario.
In the Mediterranean basin, increased evaporation, disruptions in precipitation patterns, prolonged dry periods, and more intense extreme rainfall events are likely.
In Western Asia and the Middle East, rising heat stress, growing pressure on water resources, and heightened agricultural risks are expected.
At the same time, a reduction in the oceans’ carbon storage capacity could lead to greater CO₂ accumulation in the atmosphere, accelerating global warming in the long term.
In short, an AMOC collapse wouldn’t mean a “new ice age”; it signifies a transition to a climate regime that is more unstable, more extreme, and harder to predict on a global scale, accompanied by regional coolings.
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