It all comes down to probability...

For a majority of the trial, Ava has been half-cowering behind her podium. She hadn’t been particularly helpful, and the insults flying didn’t exactly help her jump in to try and say anything either. It’s not until after Ripley is finished speaking and many others have started to cast their votes that she finally gets up the courage to speak.

“You’ve–….Th-That’s…wrong…!”

It’s far from a shout, but her voice is a little louder than her usual. Looks like Ripley might have struck a nerve.

“You talk…about chaos…but there’s…much more to it…than that…We don’t exist…in chaos…n-not really…Things can…look like…they happen for…no reason…or out…of nowhere…b-but that’s not…true at all…There is order…you just…aren’t looking…That’s not chaos…that’s predictability…”

Ava took in a deep breath, trying to make herself keep talking. 

“You killed…Yamamoto-san…over a… 25% chance…of losing your…own life…and by doing that…increased that chance…by a significant amount…A bare minimum…of 50%…considering the…evidence you…left behind…You knew…that a trial…would result…in a death…and that it could…be your own…Why knowingly gamble twice…for worse odds…? And you…only made things…worse by…n-not defending yourself…well at all…”

She shifts anxiously at her podium. She’d know a thing or two about defending herself in a trial after all. A few tears bead up in the corners of her eyes.

“Human life…is precious…and the fact that…people…were willing to…risk their lives…to protect others…and t-to not break down…in the face of…what Ouji-san…was forcing on us…that’s what makes…what we’ve both done…so terrible…If you can’t…see that……”

She shakes her head, trailing off into silence. Eventually she mumbles the last of her thought aloud to herself as she pushes a button down.

Ava quietly followed the group to the trial circle, keeping a safe distance between her and the rest. She was still on edge after seeing yet another body, as well as a few other things she didn’t particularly want to see. Although no one had come after her, she wasn’t going to take her chances. She took her place at her podium, carefully listening to everyone around her. The statistician anxiously fidgets with a few of the newly-added candy barrettes in her hair that are helping to keep the bangs out of her face. 

“I looked…through Beaumont-san’s…things in their room…a-and I didn’t…find anything that would…implicate them…N-Nothing with blood…or…anything…f-first aid…related…i-if that…helps at all…”

She shrinks a little in on herself, looking around the room. She really doesn’t like being here, but she needs to help. Even if the things she has to say don’t help that much.

“Mancini-san…and I were…investigating together…b-but we…didn’t get…as far as…Kaelin-san’s…room…s-sorry…”

Ava was contemplating sneaking out of her room to go get food. Aside from a few excursions, the statistician had barely been seen out and about. After having had to reveal herself as a murderer in front of everyone, it really shouldn’t have come as a shock. She had already been elusive enough, but a sighting after that confession might as well have been that of a cryptid; in the distance, blurry, and entirely too wary of anyone getting close. 

Ammy’s yelling immediately drew her attention. She winced, the volume loud to her even from the distance the other girl was. But one word cut through her like a knife. Body. Oh no…! She was halfway to the door, thankfully already dressed in her day clothes, when her phone buzzed. Checking it only increased her fears. Her mind raced as she ran in the direction of the Convenience Store. Who was it? Armin? Takeshi? Chie? Nolan? Approaching, it was a relief to see some of them already in the crowd. But who was missing? She was terrified to find out.

And find out she did. Ava saw the colorful striped socks between gaps in the crowd before she saw anything else. They would be cute, if they weren’t framed by blood. Airi was dead. Dead. Dead. Dead and gone. Blood and scrapes and bruises and death. She whimpers to herself, shying away from the sight as tears started to bead up in her eyes. It was starting to hard to breathe again as she trembled.

“Y-Yamamoto-san…no…”

She didn’t know the other girl very well at all, but she certainly didn’t deserve this. Ouji’s words only dig further under her skin. She bit her lip, staring at the ground. That mistrial was her fault after all, as was everything that precluded it. Ava curled in on herself, looking around nervously. Reminding everyone of that fact right after they found a body…they must all assume it was her now. Trying to keep an eye on everyone, she slowly backed herself up towards the side of the building, ready to bolt if anyone confronted her.

Retreating footsteps caught her attention. She turned just in time to watch Nolan run away, closely followed by Takeshi. Part of her wanted to follow. At the same time…she would only get in the way, wouldn’t she? She had no doubts that Cyrille would soon join them and well. Three was a wanted crowd, four was not.

Once again, a buzzing phone interrupts your investigating.

“Time’s up! We gotta get down to business, so meet at the fence again! Same place as last time.”

You wonder what might happen if you don’t show up… Nothing good, you decide as you reluctantly head over to the meeting spot by the fence. Waiting for you with a big, shitty smile just like last time, Ouji is (thankfully) silent even as everyone arrives. Opening the gate, he sets off down the dirt path without even checking to see if you all follow.

Of course, you do. What choice do you all have?

The trial area hasn’t yet lost the slightly mysterious, otherworldly air to you. All the ofuda and the shinto gate chair Ouji happily seats himself in yet again give you the impression that this would be an amazing place to spend time in any other circumstance. Naturally, none of you are very happy to be here right now. Although… Ouji did say that there was a traitor among you.

… Is one of you smiling on the inside as they watch all this?

Clearing his throat as you all gather, Ouji looks around with a smile of his own. He does really look like royalty observing his kingdom.

“I’m pretty eager to see how you all bounce back from last time! It didn’t seem as if any of you had fun watching that last execution, ehehe. Think you can solve this one? I can only hope!”

Just like last time, the case information has been sent to you.

Victim: Airi Yamamoto

Body Location: Outside of Convenience Store

Time of Death: 11:37pm

Time of Discovery: 9:04am

You’re still reeling from the shock of seeing Airi’s body laid out in such a state when Ouji shows up. He doesn’t climb through any windows this time- instead, he chooses to simply walk up behind your group, coming in from the same direction you did. His contented whistling as he walks out in front of both your group and the body is… jarring, to say the least.

“You’d all understandably be easier to coerce into murder after one victim had already fallen, so I’m not all that surprised! Glad to see one of you stepped up to the plate, though. You can find all the relevant information in your cell phone, so please look there and then commence investigating! Just like last time, with one difference…”

“Try and do better. Nobody likes a mistrial, hm?”

It’s not particularly early, but perhaps you were still sleeping. If Amaterasu’s extremely loud declarations hadn’t woken you up, the alert from your phone might have.

You heard it right- Somebody is deeeeaaaaad! Head over to the convenience store to see which one of you kicked it!

Ouji’s message has you moving in an instant. If there’s really another body, there’s going to be another trial- and you can’t make another error like last time. It’s unlikely that the Ousama is going to force another confession from this killer. You need to get to the scene as soon as possible and see what’s happened. Maybe it really is just some sort of joke…? There may be a small part of you that still pleads for that to be the case, even if the logical part of your mind knows it isn’t true after the case with Nobuteru. 

Speaking of Nobuteru, as you descend upon the outside of the convenience store, you notice something: not only is there a body, but it’s in a much worse state than the corpse of the cartomancer. 

The night had gone as well as any night in this god-forsaken village had gone, and although no news was better than bad news, there was definitely something around these parts. Amaterasu could feel the palpable tension that came from not a little apprehension over the events of the motive, but also because she happened to be sleeping in anxiety central with two Shinozakis one bed away. While she had softened up on Emiko after recent events (not to mention the near-disastrous events of the day before) and always liked Chiemi, they were safe while she was not, and that meant she still had her own problems to deal with.

The morning of the third day brought forth no surprises. Waking up slightly later than usual, Ammy pushed her way out of bed to make a trip to the bathroom. She’d only finished washing her hands when something about the atmosphere of Yonakimura stopped her from returning to her room. Something in the air didn’t feel quite right, and as she walked out and turned to her right to look around, she noticed what that something was.

It was certainly something…gruesome.

“…Son of a bitch.” Dropping the need to dry her hands in favour of running in the direction of the convenience store. As she neared, her eyes widened slightly, before narrowing as she slowed down to take in the entire scene. Goddamn, what the actual hell happened here? Other than the, well, obvious.

“Can I get an amen in here?” Amaterasu muttered darkly to herself, before turning back around and walking the short distance to the houses. Stopping by Building Three, placing her in the middle of the settlement, she took a deep breath before yelling out loud,

It was only a matter of time until they were called back. Ava follows along with the rest of the group as they’re summoned to the arcade. She had been having some fun here before. Figures that Ouji would attach a bad memory to this place too.

She shifts anxiously as Ouji talks. Of course he’d be mocking them again for their mistrial. She certainly wouldn’t be forgetting that event any time soon, even if it wasn’t just a few days ago.

Rock-Paper-Scissors. A tournament of four rounds, a game with three play options. To lose all four rounds would be fairly unlucky indeed. Ava quietly mumbled to herself as she tried to see the chalkboard through the group of people in front of her.

“Assuming full participation…total probability of execution…0.0118…unless a win requires…best two out of three…then 0.0001…”

Well, that’s better than the chances before. Finding a break in the crowd, Ava looked over the board. Where she finds her name, she also finds Nolan’s. Her heart sinks. Of course the two of them would be put in a slot together. She glanced towards him, before reading through the rest of the pairs.

It’s been four days since the end of the trial. The tension in the air was palpable enough after the wrongful execution of Yurie Takai, but surely no one wanted to end up like her, thus the lack of death continued. It would all change come the late afternoon of the fourth day, when a familiar number sends you all a text message you just can’t ignore.

“Please meet me in front of the arcade for your next very important announcement!”

Ouji is already waiting for you, his expression as serene as ever. You notice that he’s brought a chalkboard with him this time, and the katakana for ‘bingo’ is scrawled across the upper-left hand corner in white chalk, but before you can ask about it, he coughs to get your attention.

“So, I see you’ve all decided to start playing nicer from now on. That’s good… is what I’d say if I actually wanted you to get along! That’s not what we’re here to do, are we? I’d have thought some of you would have taken advantage of the fact that the rest of your classmates aren’t exactly very smart to continue the killing streak, but I guess I hoped for too much. So!”

He clasps his hand together with a smile, and you can see the piece of chalk in his hands. Next to bingo, he writes down ‘fists’.

“Since our last minigame was so successful, we shall play another! We just played bingo, and now we’ll play another special game! A game of fists, specifically, ehehe. But it won’t be a brawl or anything, don’t worry- we’re going to play some Rock-Paper-Scissors!”

He proceeds to turn the entire chalkboard around to reveal its back. A tournament-style chart is revealed to be on the back, with you and your classmates’ names scattered around the brackets.

“I shan’t hope I have to explain how to play Rock-Paper-Scissors to any of you. This time tomorrow, we will all return here to the arcade for Round 1, where all sixteen of you will battle it out. Failure to show up awards your opponent an automatic victory, so be there! The next day will be the round of 8, followed by the round of 4, and finally on the fourth day, the round of 2. Whoever loses that round…will be instantly executed on the spot. No ifs, buts, volunteers or deal breakers about it, you will die, and it will be as fun to watch as the last one.”

He gives you all some time to take that bit of information in, before laughing.

“Of course, if you want to prevent that, just do what our last Player of the Game did, and murder someone! I know what you’re thinking though, isn’t it easier to just sacrifice one person for the sake of everyone else? Well, here’s to hoping you don’t have someone here in the village that you’d like to protect or anything…”

The glint in his eyes says all that really needs to be said. With a jovial wave, he abandons the chalkboard for the arcade, and any attempts to follow him are rewarded with a deserted arcade. Your attention is instead drawn back to the chalkboard, and how, if no one commits murder in four days, one of you is doomed.

1 in 960,000. That number flashed through her mind as thunder crackled loudly through the clearing. Was the shrill sound of screaming that followed coming from her? Her mouth is open, so it must be. The sudden appearance of a projected image compels her to watch.

Yurie is being tortured. Ava stares on in horror like a deer caught in headlights as the girl is zapped again and again and again before finally plummeting to her demise. She feels sick. She doesn’t like this. She swears she can feel the cables around her own arms. It makes her heart feel bad and her head swim and is she even breathing right now? Her lungs aren’t cooperating and she sputters in terror as she tries to take in air.

The machine deposits the soft item in the bottom!

… What was that…?

You’re too stunned to even muster up a shout, unable to believe what you’ve just seen. Yurie Takai… She’d just been feet away from you a few moments ago, and now she’s gone. As the screen flickers off and the washi retracts into one of the poles with a zip, you’re still reeling from the shock.

Despite apparently having just been on the screen, Ouji pops out from behind his throne again, smiling and clapping. He’s not at all affected by the grisly sight you were all just forced to witness. If anything, it’s just made him smile all the brighter.

“Breathtaking, isn’t it? An execution, tailor made just for her! What a sight you’ve been lucky enough to behold. I wonder what all of your executions will look like? I’m sure we’ll be finding out veeeery shortly, ehehe.”

“But we shouldn’t dawdle around here. There’s so much to return to in the village! Not enough kids these days appreciate small-town living and how enjoyable it can be. I sure didn’t until I came to Yonakimura! Everyone who voted will find a coin in their rooms, so you can get yourself a new treat from the vending machine. Plus, a new part of town has been opened up for exploration! There’s so much to be done, so I’d like to ask everyone to politely head on back.”

None of you want to stay here for much longer. Before you all leave the clearing, however, Ouji abruptly pulls out his phone. His face lights up with a grin as he starts to address you all. 

“Oh, and just so you know, the Ousama Game is still on. The King’s orders are absolute. Student number four will not be permitted to sleep for the next twenty-four hours. Failure to follow this order will result in punishment.”

Ouji returns from behind the throne moments later, a large woven basket with a lid in his hands. Moving to sit on the throne, he holds it in his lap, looking over all of you with a smile as he removes the lid.

“Let’s see who’s our unlucky victim, shall we?”

Without further ado, he reaches in, pulling out a single small scroll amidst the rustling of paper. Holding it out, he loosens his grip to allow it to unravel, showing the name written in beautiful calligraphy…

Yurie Takai.

Nobuteru Asanuma - 1

Aiko Sato - 1

Ava Alkaev - 1

Chiemi Shinozaki - 4

Chie Tsukino - 6

Ava looks over at the lint before shaking her head and addressing Armin.

All of the yelling and violence didn’t help Ava’s state of mind. She had already been sobbing and shaking before. As things escalated,  she actually started to cower behind her podium. It took her a little while to finally peek back up and contribute again. Just breathe Ava.

“Did anyone…check the other…tea leaves…to see if…they were…poisoned too…? Mizuhara-san  and I…only looked at…the green tea…because it wasn’t…put away correctly…If it really…was random…wouldn’t the other kinds…have the…flower stuff in them…as well..? Otherwise…if only the…green tea was poisoned…that seems…much more like it’s…targeting just…a person who…drinks green tea.”

She tried to wipe her eyes on the edges of her scarf before continuing.