Official Predictions and Rankings
ojovivo
Aqua Utopia|海の底で記憶を紡ぐ

One Nice Bug Per Day
"I'm Dorothy Gale from Kansas"
Game of Thrones Daily
$LAYYYTER

if i look back, i am lost
Claire Keane
he wasn't even looking at me and he found me

★
Sweet Seals For You, Always

blake kathryn
let's talk about Bridgerton tea, my ask is open
Xuebing Du

pixel skylines
TVSTRANGERTHINGS
h

tannertan36

JVL
seen from United Kingdom

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@oscarcompletism
Official Predictions and Rankings

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Overlooked Performances of 2015
Directing
Ryan Coogler, Creed
Todd Haynes, Carol
Acting
Michael B Jordan, Creed
Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
Jason Segal, The End of the Tour
Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Charlize Theron, Max Max: Fury Road
Domnhall Gleeson, everything (he was literally in every movie in 2015)
Best Original Screenplay
Trainwreck
Yes Amy Schumer is problematic and yes the plot was a little muddled, but overall Trainwreck was great, and I want there to be more movies like it.
Visual Effects
San Andreas
Here’s the thing: San Andreas was really really good.
Best Animated Feature
The Peanuts Movie
I’m not generally a Peanuts fan, but this was vastly superior to The Boy and the World, Shaun The Sheep Movie, and Anomalisa (which I truly hated).
Best Picture
Carol
How is such a beautiful film not up for Best Picture? It was WONDERFUL.
Best Original Song
See You Again, Furious 7
HOW DID THIS SONG NOT GET NOMINATED. WHAT IN THE FUCK. Go listen to this garbage song that was nominated from Racing Extinction, and then tell me that it’s better than See You Again. You can’t.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1JiJhWkM9M
Oversights that I’m cool with
Supporting Actress for Jane Fonda, Youth
Probably not many of you saw this, but it was good. Jane Fonda was nominated for a Golden Globe for this role and Vanity Fair predicted that she would not only get nominated for an Oscar but win it, and I have to say that I am just completely baffled by it. She gave maybe the 8th best performance in the movie. No subtlety whatsoever.
Best Animated Feature for The Good Dinosaur
There have only ever been three animated films that I’ve truly hated: Cars 2, Ratatouille, and The Good Dinosaur. It was uneven and weirdly paced and Arlo is the least compelling lead character since Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant.
Best Picture for The Hateful Eight
For the first act of The Hateful Eight I thought, WOW, Samuel L Jackson is playing an interesting character who’s doing things other than raining hellfire! And then, NOPE. Jules again. I don’t need to see Samuel L Jackson play that exact same character anymore. Walton Goggins sure was delightful though.
Best Picture for Steve Jobs
The most unnecessary movie that was ever made. Are people really clamoring for more retellings of the Steve Jobs story, especially one that focuses on the period of time between the Macintosh and the iMac. HAVING SAID THAT: Fassbender was great in it and his American accent is flawless which is so so rare. Winslet was fine insofar as her entire character arc was to nag Steve Jobs about being on time to things and being nice to his daughter.
You always think you have more time
You always think you have more time.
My mom was 25 when I was born, and 19 when my brother was born. All my adult life, on every birthday I would calculate how old my brother and I were when my mom was my age; it was a study in how different our lives were. Last summer when I turned 33, I did the standard math: when Momma was 33, Matt was 14 and I was 8. A high schooler and a third grader! I remember being 8, which means I remember my mom at my age. Meanwhile I was single, no kids, no responsibilities other than my job and my friends. My mom’s age was my age plus 25. The math was always so static, so comforting. Now the math is broken.
On December 10, at the maddening age of fucking 58 years old, my mom had a heart attack at home and died instantly. She had woken up early to make coffee for my dad before his early work shift as she did every morning, and she just collapsed. My dad called 911 twice, screaming that she wasn’t breathing, trying to give her CPR. The paramedics did their work. It was all too late.
She had been in perfect health, visited her doctor regularly, took a massive assortment of vitamins that crushed us when we found them in the kitchen cabinet. PROTECT YOUR HEART! implored a bottle of fish oil capsules. IMPROVES HEART HEALTH! bragged the Vitamin E. I had never realized what an act of hope it is to take vitamins, to worry about preserving your health for your old age. You always think you have more time. The sugar cream pie we found in the freezer; it’s my brother’s favorite and she had surely hoped to surprise him with it at Christmas. The vacuum-packed Greek olives I brought her from my trip to Athens last year, stacked carefully in the refrigerator drawer. Saved for a special occasion. The post-it note near the stove where she had taken notes during our last phone conversation - she took notes on post-its every time we talked on the phone. I was thinking about buying my dad a golf membership for Christmas. I’d asked her for her lasagna recipe. GOLF. LASAGNA.
I woke up that Wednesday morning to a missed call and a voicemail from my dad. My dad never called me, and I remember thinking that maybe Aunt Sharron was in the hospital again, or god forbid it was Aunt Edna’s heart. All I remember from that conversation with my dad is his numb clinical monotone giving way to a gasping wail and me repeating “I’m coming home. I’m coming home.” All I remember from the flight home is some asshole who noticed me crying on the plane and said “bad breakup, huh?” That guy can still go fuck himself.
An important thing to know about my mom is that she fucking loved the song Love Remains by Collin Raye. Dozens if not hundreds of times, she said “When I die, I don’t care if you put me in a Hefty bag and roll me down a hill as long as you play Love Remains.” This was a classic family joke; we all laughed because we knew she would outlive us all. As we sat sobbing and broken and staring straight ahead at the memorial service, Love Remains playing, my brother whispered “the front fucking row.” I still don’t know if he knows I heard him, but those words haven’t left me. It’s really happening. We’re in a fucking funeral home and we’re sitting in the front fucking row because that’s where the fucking family sits and what the fuck. It was (and is) unthinkable.
Another important thing to know about my mom is that she was always, always, always thinking about other people. Always. At buffets, she would come back to the table balancing 6 tiny plates, one for each of us. “Stef! I remember you saying that you loved the pork and pineapple at that new chinese place you tried last month and look, they have it here too!” Trips to the grocery store were the same. "Matt! Look! They had that salsa you like!" She was an encyclopedia of how to make everyone around her feel loved.
Fuck. She was.
In those days immediately afterward, it became incredibly important to me that people acknowledge that this was the most tragic, fucked-up thing that had ever happened. I listed all the reasons, repeating them over and over in my mind, thinking that if I could just articulate the perfect sentence about how wrong it was, I could somehow undo it. She was only 58. We didn’t have any notice. It was two weeks before Christmas. 8 days before I flew home for the holidays. It was 3 months before my dad retired and they had so many plans. She had lost her own mom at 15 and loved us with a ferocity that could only come from surviving that hellfire at such a young age. And oh goddammit, her grandbabies, her FAVORITES. The “Baby’s First Christmas” ornament we found in her car is now a symbol of heartbreak rather than celebration. Even when friends and acquaintances who had also lost their moms generously reached out to comfort me, the darkest and most jagged part of me thought, “Yeah but your mom had cancer. You knew it was coming! You had time!” as though extending the horror over a few months or years could ever possibly do a thing to minimize it.
Late one night as I lie on my parents’ couch staring at the ceiling and hoping to a god I don't believe in that somehow this was all just a big misunderstanding, I got a notification from OKCupid and, desperate for something else to think about, I opened the message. It was a thoughtful, interesting few paragraphs from a handsome dude with a great beard who had clearly actually read my profile, and through my sleepless grief, I remember thinking, “Oh. There he is.” I replied a day or two later with a brief summary of my situation: “you seem great but I’m kind of in the middle of the absolute worst moment of my life soooo.” At a time when I hated everything everyone said, I didn’t hate his reply. I found out later he’d worked on it for hours.
Our first date was about a month later, a shift at the food bank followed by several hours of talking and crying and laughing and eating barbecue. I’d worried as the date approached that I wasn’t capable of happiness, not then and maybe not ever again, but Jason was just so easy to be around that eventually my worry shifted to guilt about being SO happy when I was still grieving so hard.
I’ve been staring at a sentence that starts “Jason is” for about 20 minutes because it’s just impossible to articulate how effortlessly supportive he’s been, how endlessly comfortable he’s made me feel, how patient and easygoing he continues to be when I have to cancel plans because I saw someone wearing a sweater on TV that my mom would have liked and I need to cry for a while.
There’s something fundamentally heartbreaking about meeting the love of your life so soon after losing the person in your life who was most fanatically committed to your happiness. For weeks I would pick up my phone to text my mom about something wonderful Jason had done or said, and one morning I actually took a picture of him standing at the sink washing dishes, smiling as I composed a caption that was sure to delight her. I still can’t quite wrap my brain around how much they would have loved each other. How they would have bonded over being the only two people in the family who aren’t obsessed with football. The swooning look she would have given me the first time he offered to wash the dishes. How excited she would have been to dance with him at our wedding.
I don’t believe in an afterlife, which means I think my mom has entirely ceased to exist. She didn’t get to see how it all turned out. She will never know the name of the person I’m going to marry and if I have kids, she won’t know their names. She won’t get to find out whether my nephew keeps the red hair she was so proud of because it came from her.
If I can use this space as a public service announcement just for a moment, please allow me to beg you to not assume that someone who is grieving shares your religious beliefs. Please. While there’s usually not a right thing to say, there are definitely many wrong things to say. Those things include:
“She’s in a better place!”
“It’s all part of the plan!”
"Everything happens for a reason!"
“She’s smiling down on you!”
“She’s your guardian angel now!”
Please don’t ever, ever, ever say any of these things unless you are 100% certain that the person to whom you’re speaking shares your religious beliefs. You know what though, probably not even then because think about what you’re saying when you say “she’s in a better place.” Not only is it deeply presumptuous, it is usually fundamentally fucking untrue. There just isn’t anywhere, earthly or otherwise, my mom would rather have been than her living room on Christmas morning, watching her grandbabies tear into the presents she had so thoughtfully picked out. Or at my wedding. Please understand that when you say this, you are saying that there is a "better" place for my mom to be than at my fucking wedding.
Also, I never imagined this would need to be said, but absolutely under no circumstances should you give someone who is grieving the sudden loss of a parent a greeting card that says “I heard you’re having a tough time. Do what I do - use it as an excuse to go shoe shopping!” Really. That actually happened. An adult human made that decision.
It's been 8 months now and there isn't an end to this story; there's only a string of heartbreaking firsts. The first time I went on a trip and didn't bring her home a refrigerator magnet. The first time I moved into a new apartment and didn't send her a million pictures. Dylan's first birthday, first steps, first words. Katie's first day of fourth grade. It doesn't get easier, but you do get more used to it. You have to remind yourself fewer and fewer times per day that it actually happened and that it wasn't some hideous nightmare. After a while you even get so used to it that you can begin a thought with the awareness that it will happen without her instead of being slammed to the ground by it halfway through. But it still isn't fucking okay. We were supposed to have more time.
Goodbye, Oscar Season <3
Most Overlooked of 2013
As a goodbye to Oscar season, here are the most criminally underheralded movie things that were completely wonderful in 2013:
Best Picture:
Short Term 12
Best Actor:
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Best Actress:
Brie Larsen, Short Term 12
Greta Gerwin, Frances Ha
Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
Best Supporting Actor:
Ken Marino, In A World
John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
Danny McBride, This Is The End
Bob Odenkirk, Nebraska
(Name of incredible cameo redacted), This Is The End
Best Supporting Actress:
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Best Foreign Film:
The Invisible Woman
Best Original Screenplay:
Lake Bell, In A World...
Evan Goldberg, This Is The End
Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha

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PREDICTIONS
Hi guys! Predictions!
NOTE: I've sorted the nominees in each category in ascending order of my preference, so you can better predict my rage level.
Completism Check-In - FIVE TO GO
NOMINATIONS
It's done! Here are the nominees.
Happiest surprises: Bruce Dern, Christian Bale, Meryl Streep, Amy Adams, Jonah Hill, Barkhad Abdi, The Moon Song, no Redford or All is Lost
Bummers: Julia Roberts (but she won't win), no Oscar Isaac (but that was never going to happen), David O Russell (but that was inevitable), no hair/makeup for American Hustle (DID THEY JUST NOT SEE BRADLEY COOPER'S PERM)
Movies you can look forward to me spite-blogging because they got technical nominations: Lone Survivor, Bad Grandpa (no really), The Hobbit, The Lone Ranger
Oscar Predictions!
NOMINATIONS COME OUT TOMORROW! That means it's time for The Oscar Completism Spreadsheet. For those of you who are new, you can find Oscar Completism's mission statement here.
The spreadsheet includes what I think SHOULD get nominated and what I think WILL get nominated, which are almost never the same, in the major categories. Over the next several weeks, I'll pursue my insane obsession with seeing every single movie that's nominated in every single category, and I'll be documenting the chase here. Before the Oscars I'll be publishing another spreadsheet with my predicted winners in every single category, because you're damn right I'm going to have an opinion about Best Sound Editing.
Best Picture
Her was the best movie I've ever seen, which also makes it the best movie I saw this year. It was perfect on every single measure of filmmaking: perfect storytelling, perfect direction, perfect acting, perfect music, perfect photography. I just. It was gorgeous. It won't win.
Second was The Act of Killing, which has no chance of even getting nominated in this category but should be required viewing for all of humanity. Third is Nebraska – I'm still a little unsure about the decision to film in black and white, but overall it was a great story very well told.
Next: Short Term 12, which was probably this year's most underappreciated film. Like The Act of Killing, it has zero chance of a nomination, but it was really beautiful and emotionally complex and awesome.
Next we have Inside Llewyn Davis and The Wolf of Wall Street, both absolutely terrific but pushed down the list by an unusually great crop of movies. American Hustle was very good, full of incredible acting but damn, David O Russell's directing will just never sit right with me. As long as he keeps making movies with actors who are way better at acting than he is at directing, his movies will keep being really weird.
Gravity was very good and was clearly a huge technological achievement, but I'm just not sure it was substantial enough to warrant a Best Picture nomination. I took it off the list and put it back on about 10 times before ultimately deciding to leave it on. Sure. Why not.
12 Years a Slave: I just did not love this movie. I don't know. Something about it was off. The acting was great but the storytelling was muddled. But it's just the sort of sweeping drama that's supposed to be nominated for Best Picture, and so it will be. And it'll win, which is fine. It was just sort of soulless, but so are the Oscars, so it works.
Captain Phillips: Not in my top 10 this year (or even in my top 15) but its nomination is almost a certainty.

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Best Actor
So many incredible acting performances this year. I think Joaquin Phoenix is most deserving, given the added degree of difficulty of being alone in almost all of his scenes (Scarlett Johanssen's voice was added in post-production) but really these were all fantastic performances and I'd be happy with any choice. Except Robert Redford in All is Lost, which is one of the most overrated acting performances in years.
Honorable Won't-Get-Nominated-But-Totally-Deserve-It Mentions goes to Oscar Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis, who was absolutely hypnotic, and Bruce Dern, who elevated Nebraska from standard indie to glory.
Best Actress
Ladies of Hollywood: Don't even bother acting in a year that Meryl is acting, because she's a perfect superhuman and your back will hurt from all the bowing down you'll have to do. August:Osage County was deeply mediocre and you probably shouldn't bother seeing it, but Meryl absolutely fucking crushed it.
Next: Judi Dench in Philomena (aka Philomania). She completely disappeared into this role, playing a small-town Irish woman searching for her long-lost son. A story like that could have very easily gone schmaltzy, and truth be told the movie got really close to schmaltz in the first act, but Judi Dench kept her character real and true and complicated and goddammit if she didn't remind me so much of my super rural Aunt Edna. Incredible work.
Cate Blanchett will win, though, and while I didn't think she was this year's best, she'll deserve it. She was electric, and brought depth to a character who, like Judi Dench in Philomena, could so easily have become a caricature.
Brie Larsen was so, so, so good in Short Term 12. She played a woman so wounded by her childhood that as an adult she can't bring herself to believe that she deserves happiness or love, no matter how hard they chase her, and she did so without TELLING you that she was so wounded by her childhood that she can't bring herself to believe that she deserves happiness or love, no matter how hard they chase her. I'm really excited to watch her over the next few years.
Amy Adams is great. She's been nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 4 of the last 8 years (Junebug, Doubt, The Fighter, and The Master) and she's deserved the hell out of every one. American Hustle probably wasn't the best work of her career, but go get it, girl.
Best Supporting Actor
Most underrated, definitely-will-not-get-nominated Supporting Actor performance this year: Colin Farrell in Saving Mr. Banks. He was just balls-out amazing in it.
Other than pointing out that near-certain oversight, I don't have a ton to say about this category because everyone was wonderful and anyone who wins will deserve it. Even Bradley Cooper.
Best Supporting Actress
This is a very odd category this year. Everyone was fine, but no one was really mind-blowing. The most puzzling likely nomination is Julia Roberts, who I thought was absolutely terrible in August:Osage County. I didn't see The Butler (and I damn sure won't unless Oprah gets nominated and I have to) but without that, I couldn't even come up with a fifth deserving candidate. Jennifer Lawrence is the favorite here, and that's fine. As long as it's not Julia Goddamn Roberts.
Best Director
Her is perfection. It built a complex world and told a complex story, and did so in a way that felt easy and challenging at the same time, which is an enormous task and a huge credit to Spike Jonze.
If Cuaron wins for Gravity, it'll also be very well deserved. A Steve McQueen win for 12 Years a Slave would be less so, due to muddled storytelling and a general lack of heart. Alexander Payne and Paul Greengrass are, in my opinion, sure to be nominated but very unlikely to win, which seems appropriate.
As always, if David O Russell wins, I'll burn down the state of California and then the whole internet.

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ALL IS LOST
GUYS. OSCAR COMPLETISM IS BACK. WELCOME.
Sadly, it started with the disappointment that was All is Lost.
Before I get too into this post, I want to discuss the spoiler level for this. Because the trailer makes it clear that this is a movie about a guy alone at sea busting his ass to survive, it seems fair to me to discuss details of that struggle without considering those details to be spoilers. I won't give away the ending, obviously. Here we go.
All is Lost is the story of a man, alone, struggling to survive at sea. It is largely without dialogue - Robert Redford is the only character, referred to only as Our Man in the credits, and we only see him say about 3 words. It was a worthwhile experiment, but one that ultimately fails. There are several minor, survivable flaws, but I think the fatal one is that we are not (or at least I was not) sufficiently induced to invest in Our Man's plight for survival.
The thing is, Robert Redford is not good in this film. It's not that he's bad, it's just that he's nothingness. He is just making his resting face in 80% of this movie. I’m sure he's going for stoicism, and I think it seems like a striking, iconic performance simply because of the wordlessness of the film, but in a movie with no dialogue, we needed more from him.
Because ultimately this is the story of a 75 year old man who lives alone on a leaky 30 year old schooner in the middle of the Indian Ocean with antiquated equipment and if you want me to buy into his struggle, you have to give me SOMETHING.
Our Man’s crisis starts when his boat is punctured by an errant shipping container, which causes a leak that floods the lower level of his boat and destroys his radio. (We are left to ask: why on EARTH does he not have an emergency radio in a waterproof container?) He’s now alone, without the ability to call for rescue. He observes ominous clouds; hours later when the rain actually hits, he goes up onto the deck in a violent storm to, well, I’m not sure. Do things. Boat things. I’m not a boat expert, and there’s no dialogue, so why is he up there? This is probably stuff he could have done before the storm hit, right, when it was less dangerous? It seems so. Later when he abandons his sinking ship for a lifeboat, he fills a container with potable water, but leaves the release valve open and the water drains out.
So, is Our Man a lifelong boat expert who approaches this situation with straight-faced calm because he knows exactly what the hell he’s doing, in which case, why does he make these rookie mistakes (and not seem to realize he’s making them)? Or is he just a guy who set out for some post-retirement adventure but it turns out he’s underprepared for this life at sea, in which case, why isn’t he freaking the fuck out? It’s so muddled. In a film that is only character and action, they both need to really, really make sense.
There’s no denying though that All is Lost is thought-provoking as hell. Even though I had a lot of problems with it, I haven’t stopped thinking about it since I saw it three days ago, and I can’t wait for someone to combine the ambition of this film with a little more attention to character development.
Possible nominations:
Best Picture
Best Actor
Oscar Predictions
Oscar Predictions!