One of [Martin] van Creveld's many controversial theses is that the existence of the state is justified by its ability to wage war.
It was not the social-welfare system that created the modern state, but its military effectiveness in comparison to that of other warfaring organizations. Now the state's monopoly is about to be lost—both upward, to supranational organizations, and downward, to commercial, political, and criminal ones. Conventional wars will cease with this change, but at the same time, the power of the state will decay and the result will be a new kind of war.
A state that cannot wage war cannot, according to van Creveld, offer its citizens a possibility for life, or even an acceptable reason to die. It has played its role.
Instead, the security business will blossom and become the dominant industry. Like the condottieri of yore, it may one day even completely supplant the state.
The war of the future will be fought between tribes and sects, by terrorists, bandits, guerillas, and pirates. Distinct frontlines will be replaced by improvised roadblocks manned by hooligans. This has already begun in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. It will continue in the former Soviet Union, China, and India—and in the U.S. and Europe if the growing tide of violence is not stopped.
Wars will not disappear—instead they will be longer, bloodier, and more terrible. They will be waged by private armies, motorcycle gangs, Nazi groups, security guards, moonlighting policemen, and soldiers who haven't been paid. The bomb of the future is not the intercontinental missile, but the explosives in a purse; not the bomb from the air, but the car bomb and the letter bomb.
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