It is also important that you understand that we are pissed. We've been historically suspicious of the USA due to political intervention, and the fact that it's happening again in such blatant way is infuriating. President Lula was arrested during the USA-led military dictatorship years. The fact that this is what Bolsonaro was trying to return to, together with Trump's political positions, means that Lula is unlikely to fold.
Brazil is a large country with a very strong political influence in Latin America, and losing ground here damages the USA's influence in the entire continent. China, who has been steadily growing closer and is already our biggest commercial partner, is taking the chance to claim their place as our closest political ally. We're also growing closer to the EU.
The ways Brazil may retaliate are not negligible, either. Beyond the obvious measures in taxation which will make food and things such as airplanes significantly more expensive in the USA, Brazilian law allows for other, more aggressive measures, such as breaking patents. This is something we have done before with pharmaceuticals, and I'd like you to consider the economic impact if we were to do it again and break the patent of, say, drugs like the billion dollar Ozempic. Do not doubt that we are capable of that science, because we are. And we may not be capable of that industrially, but China definitely is and has worked with us before.
Moreover, bear in mind that a lot of this commercial breakup is likely to be irreversible. Latin America is suspicious of the USA, and this makes it clear that the US is a volatile, unreliable nation. Sure, you may elect a democrat who pulls back those tariffs and tries to make amends. But by the time that happens, we'll have trade deals in place with nations we deem more reliable and stable. Some things, like cattle, can have increased production. But we detain, for instance, 98% of the world's reserves of Niobium. That's a limited resource. You might've trouble buying it in the future.
This is not to say this trade war isn't catastrophic to Brazil, because it is. We'll struggle a lot. But this uncalled for conflict with a country who's always been an ally is one of the most unhinged, bilaterally damaging political moves Trump could possibly do. It's so unnecessary and baffling.
I'd say the bottom line is this: this whole issue is ridiculous and a disaster for us both. But Brazil is a nation who is generally well liked. The USA, quite the opposite. The USA is a nation full of enemies making more enemies for no particular reason. It's arrogant to think this won't come back to bite you in the future.
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