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Holiday Shopping Tips

I came across this news release while working the news for one of my radio markets this morning. It had some shopping tips — especially related to safety while getting the stuff into the car — that I’d not seen before. I hope you’ll take a few minutes to read, and more importantly remember & follow, these tips.

Holiday Shopping (PDF)

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Saturday Afternoon Winter Weather Update

Good afternoon! We are in a lull between “events” right now as most of the snow from this morning has lifted north into Northern Missouri and Iowa. I have had a chance to look at some new forecast data from the morning set of model runs and it still appears that southern Kansas, primarily south of US 54/400 will have a chance for a period of light snow overnight, as a second disturbance and cold front moves into the area.

Below is a forecast of snow totals through 6pm Sunday. WARNING: Specific totals NOT to be taken at face value:

Forecast snow totals for overnight event. WARNING: Specific totals NOT to be taken at face value Image courtesy: hazwx.com

It still appears Wichita is in the running for less than an inch of snow. There maybe slightly higher totals in Northern Oklahoma as the snow will linger longer in that area.

The snow should move out of Southern Kansas during the early afternoon hours Sunday. It will be a cold day, with highs struggling to get to 30 on Sunday.

Sunday night will be cold, as temperatures will fall back to around 15 degrees, colder if areas receive any appreciable snow accumulation.

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7:30am Winter Weather Update

Good morning! If you were wanting to see snow this morning, you had to get up pretty early. Here in Wichita, the snow started just after 5am and was enough to temporarily reduce visibilities and provide a very light dusting on some surfaces. The snow is done in Wichita for the daylight hours today.

Radar image as of 7:38 am Saturday

In Central and Northern Kansas, the snow fell at a quicker rate and was able to cause some problems on the roadways. Below is a look at travel conditions across the state thanks to 511.ksdot.org:

The image shows travel conditions across Kansas at 730am Saturday

Right  now, it appears roads are snowpacked and icy roads along I-70 and on other US highways, primarily north of Hays and Russell. Roads across Northern Kansas will continue to deteriorate through the morning hours as the snow continues to move east.

The saving grace here is that there is still some sunlight bleeding through the clouds which will act to heat the surfaces. Temperatures will remain around freezing, so roads may not become completely snowpacked and icy as they likely would without sunlight.

Throughout the rest of the day, snow will move northeast into NE KS, Missouri and Iowa. We will get a break here in Kansas before a second disturbance and cold front moves into the area later this afternoon and tonight. There will be another round of light snow possible across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma tonight, but amounts are forecast to remain below 2 inches.

Here is my updated snowfall forecast for specific cities in Kansas:

Wichita: Up to 1″ possible

Salina: 1-2″

Topeka: 1-3″

Kansas City: 1-3″

Chanute: Up to 1″ possible

Garden City: Flurries; little accumulation

Goodland: Flurries; little accumulation

Winter Weather advisories remain in effect for the counties shaded in blue:

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect

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First measurable snow of season headed to parts of Kansas

You had to know we just couldn’t get out of this cold snap without some snow and on Saturday, parts of the state could see their first measurable snow of the season.

Some energy from the Pacific Ocean will undercut a huge high pressure in Western Canada, then sneak east across the Southern Rockies and into the Central Plains on Saturday. After the main impulse slides quickly by, a second, reinforcing shot of cold air will move into the area Saturday night. That second impulse will bring a chance for light snow and flurries to the state overnight Saturday.

Lets break this set up down in terms of pros and cons:

Pros:

There will be some moisture out ahead of the storm, as evidenced by the increase in mid and high level clouds ahead of the storm.

Cold air has been established for 5 days

Snow will be dominant precip type, though there maybe some sleet across far W KS late tonight.

Cons:

Dynamics are lacking

Surface moisture is lacking as well. Dewpoints in Kansas at 3pm Friday were in the upper single digits to mid teens

Precip will have to saturate the column before falling to surface, keeping snowfall totals in check.

Winter weather advisories are in effect for the counties in blue as of 315 pm FRI

Here is the probability of more than 1 inch of snow from the storm system through 6pm Saturday night:

Greatest chances are along and north of I-70 in Kansas

Here are some predicted snow totals for cities across Kansas:

Wichita: T-1″ south of Wichita, 1-2″ north of Wichita

Salina: 2-3″

Topeka: 2-4″

Kansas City: 2-4″

Chanute: 1-2″

Garden City: 1-2″

Goodland: 1-3″

Here is our Winter Storm threat scale for this storm. The scale is from 0-10, with 0 representing low and 10 an extreme threat.

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Update on Today: Further South

I’m just focusing on hail risk today, as I think it will be the one with the most potential for economic damage. I have had a difficult time finding anywhere in Kansas that I still feel I could say there could be a tornado…or at least one that lasts longer than a minute or two.

Here is the threat graphic (click for full-size):

Data from SPC, delivered by AllisonHouse. Image Copyright KSStorm Media, LLC

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Risk Evaluation, Oct. 1

I’m going to start with the bottom line: while we will have a severe weather event tomorrow, and possibly some severe storms today, I’d certainly stop short of calling this an outbreak scenario. I’m seeing hail of 2″ or smaller and wind of 70 miles an hour or so as the primary risk. For unharvested farm fields that’s a pretty big deal. But I’m not seeing a life threat from these storms.

Here is the SPC Day2 probability graphic from this morning, effective 7am Wednesday to 7am Thursday.

SPC Forecast for Oct 1

First thing you’ll notice in comparing it to yesterday’s Day3 outlook for the same time period is the size and shape haven’t changed much. That’s an indication the models forecasters are using are in pretty good agreement on the large-scale details of tomorrow’s event. Much of Kansas east of a Hays to Greensburg line has a 15% probability of any severe weather report within 25 miles of a point.

There are two major challenges with tomorrow’s forecast. #1, as highlighted by SPC:

LEE SFC CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SWRN KS AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD

The emphasis is mine. A low-pressure area typically forms in southeast Colorado in response to systems clearing the Rockies. Once it does, the area typically moves east or northeast. The lack of movement on tomorrow’s system may steal an important ingredient from the afternoon and evening storms: a push from the west.

Challenge 2, Clearing and moisture return. We’re seeing the same challenges we ses in the early spring storms — will whatever happens tonight clear out of Central Kansas early enough tomorrow for several hours of sunshine, and will the moisture flow return from the southeast? The models are inconclusive at best on this particular detail.

Here’s what SPC says can happen IF things clear early enough and moisture returns in time:

IF DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S AS DEPICTED BY LATEST NAM THEN SUBSTANTIAL SBCAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION BY 21Z.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST AND NORTH INTO SERN NEB. EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE MODE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LIKELY EVOLVING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG NOSE OF LLJ OVER THE MID MO VALLEY.  LARGE HAIL…A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

Note that one model is saying the conditions will be right. However, that same model is showing some of the things I watch when trying to analyze tornado risk being out of sync with one another. Compare these images:

Comparison of NAM forecasts for Helicity and CAPE/CIN as of 7pm CDT Oct. 1

The helicity bullseye (left) is centered on Lawrence. However, the nice white bullseye of highest CAPE and no CIN is from Salina to north of Hays to about Marysville. To simplify: the location of best twist is displaced from the location where available energy is high/resistance to storms firing is low by about 100 miles. It’s kind of like trying to heat a pot of water that’s sitting on the back burner by turning on the front burner…or the stove.

Here is the same model’s simulated radar for 7pm tomorrow. While you can’t take the locations of the predicted rain as gospel, notice it has Kansas almost completely dry!

Simulated Radar, 7pm Wednesday.

For comparison, here is a simulated radar image from the GFS model for the same time:

GFS Simulated Radar, 7pm CDT Oct 1

Note the darkest green in a tiny area just northwest of Wichita? Based on some other parameters in the GFS forecast, if I were chasing tomorrow I think it would almost literally be a backyard chase. If this model plays out I’d expect some large hail in northwest Sedgwick and Harvey counties around this time of the evening.

I’ll end with the notes I used to do my radio forecasts today:

The developing low in eastern Colorado may provide the first energy to get some thundershowers going in west central Kansas tomorrow afternoon. Then look for a larger area of thundershowers to develop in central and south central Kansas, spreading into northern parts of the state during the evening. Some of these storms are expected to be severe, and while they remain discrete early in their life they could produce large hail, high wind and maybe a brief tornado. They’ll evolve into a storm cluster during the evening, it appears. By midnight, they’ll be ending from the northwest to the southeast as a strong cold front sweeps in. That front will push the storms into eastern Kansas by Thursday afternoon.

Finally, a note about today. I think Dodge City said it best in their discussion this morning (slightly edited):

A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF THIS LINE, CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…IF THEY DEVELOP. MAIN HAZARD IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

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Wednesday Heads-Up

It looks like some severe weather will be possible in Kansas the next few days. The chaser community is focused mostly on Wednesday as the main risk day. I’m not hugely impressed by the potential risk, but for a fall event it has the makings of a potentially interesting day. I’m not going to go into a pile of detail on it today…look for the detailed risk analysis by 8am Tuesday.

Here’s the SPC outlook:

SPC Outlook for Wed, Oct 1: Click for full-size.

The key paragraph from the SPC discussion:

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL…STRONG WINDS…AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED.

Matt and I discussed it a bit ago via SMS…where’s the short version of what I’m seeing right now (weather geek discussion here):

NAM doesn’t look bad for I-70 corridor; GFS looks nice at some levels and out of sync at others; Euro is more aggressive and further southeast than the others.

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Out with the Old,

in with the new.

I retired the Equinox today.

Some pending expensive repairs were going to cost more than I could justify. So today Roxan and I pulled out all the equipment and traded it on a Chevy Suburban of the same vintage.

Part of me preferred the Tahoe we were looking at, but this one felt like a better vehicle for us.

Thanks to Trinity Auto Service and Regal Auto Sales and Credit for getting us matched up with this new to us chase ride! Jerry, Donna, we couldn’t have done it without you!

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Marginal Hail Threat Tonight

The SPC has a large part of the county in a 5% probability for severe-level hail (1″ or larger)/ For the Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri portion of it, the risk is all during the evening hours.

Marginal Hail Treat Tonight

(Click image to view full-size)

From this morning’s outlook:

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF KANSAS…WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

Translated: hail just above 1″ in size…which can produce crop damage and maybe some dents in cars. A broad, diffuse warm front will drift north somewhat today, but it will be nighttime when the low-level jet kicks in and provides the energy needed to get any storms going. My best bet is that it’s more of a heavy rain event, leading to some more flooding areas in central Kansas.

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Sunday Update - When to Leave the Lake

We’re approaching 3pm. I wanted to get this out now so those of you at the lakes can take proper action.

For Kanopolis, Glen Elder and Wilson State Parks: I’d start packing up to leave around 4-5pm.

For Milford and Tuttle Creek reservoirs, you’re still good through about 7pm.

The graphic below denotes in turquoise and red where the higher probabilities for thunderstorms occur during a particular time frame. Note this is total chance of any thunderstorm, not the probability of severe weather. I’d not want to be on the lake in a turquoise area after the time indicated in red (4pm or 7pm)…but that’s me, and I don’t go to the lake often at all.

I’d suggest starting to pack up and leave for home by the indicated time if the lake you’re at is in the turquoise area.

For the most part, I’m not concerned by the thunderstorm threat for lakes or camping anywhere west of a Stockton to Greensburg line. There may be some storms, but I see a very limited severe risk.

Today’s Primary Risk: Hail

Risk for severe hail between now and 7am CDT Monday.

Severe wind (60+ mph) is a threat in the same areas. The threat will persist after dark, and it will be moving slowly southeast. For areas south or east of McPherson, I’d expect the risk time frame to be 4am into tomorrow mid-day.

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Risk Evaluation, Sunday Aug 31

This is a followup to the post from Thursday and my Facebook posting this afternoon (shown below) concerning the threats for tomorrow.

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Post by Storm Chaser Scott Roberts.

I’ll keep it short because many of us are on the road and/or in limited bandwidth situations this weekend.

In a nutshell: the earlier forecast has held on through the past few days. In Kansas the tornado risk is fairly low as I see it now; if there is a tornado in the state I’d expect it along or north of US-24 from about Phillipsburg to Clay Center. The better tornado risk is in the purple areas, especially in the darker purple in the upper-right corner of the image below (click for full-size)

  I think the largest risk for Kansas, particularly a box bounded by Dodge City, Hutchinson, Salina and WaKeeney, is for large hail..perhaps to baseball size. Due to the number of people at the lakes this weekend, wind will also be a concern where it might not normally. A 60-65 mph gust in a tent or an RV is much different than in a house or business.

Wind/possbile tornado damage at a Virginia campground this summer which killed two people. (WPIX TV/CNN)

SPC notes in its current discussion that if a storm can remain supercellular rather than being caught up in the SE moving line of storms, it could spin up a tornado, particularly north of Salina.

Timing:

This is the big one. This is only what I’d do if I were outdoors tomorrow — you will have to evaluate risks and the radio forecasts and weigh your own decision.

Wilson Lake, Waconda Lake/Glen Elder State Park, Kanopolis Lake: if I were camping or boating at any of these lakes I would start heading for home by 4-6pm.

Milford & Tuttle Creek Lakes/Parks: I’d be packing up to go home by 7pm or so.

Here is one model’s simulation of the time period from 1pm to about midnight tomorrow. Don’t take the radar images as Gospel as far as locaiton goes; look more at the pattern and how the storms develop/move.

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Holiday Weekend = Storms? We Must Be In Kansas

This will be a quick-hit analysis, combining several model resources and comments from the NWS ICT discussion this morning (done by Brad Ketcham, in whom I have a high degree of trust when it comes to severe weather prediction). I haven’t spent a lot of time on this analysis except to confirm I’m seeing what he and SPC describe.

First, the SPC outlook for Sunday:

Outlook effective Sunday August 31.

That risk area is a very close match to the Euro model rainfall predictions for Sunday night:

Euro Precip Forecast Sun

The GFS, while in overall general agreement with the Euro, puts the risk zone further south, and shows a classic springtime dryline/triple point setup.

GFS Dewpoint forecast, 7pm CDT Sunday

GFS forecast Energy-Helicity Index, 7pm CDT Sunday

And here is the discussion that triggered the model scan for me:

LATEST GFS…AND TO A LITTLE LESSOR EXTENT THE ECMWF…SHOW THE SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS WILL `PRIME THE PUMP`…AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY EVENING…AS BULK SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OF 50-60 KTS…WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH.

Preparedness Actions

If you’ll be on the lake, at the campground, or spending time outdoors Sunday:

Pack a NOAA All Hazards radio (they are in stock at Wal-Mart last I checked)

I’ll have the updated forecast hourly on the Rocking M stations throughout central and western Kansas…check in often, especially Saturday evening and Sunday morning.

Have a plan to get indoors and out of the path if storms develop to your west. Locations in northern Kansas, closer to the front, may also need to watch storms forming along the front as it moves south.

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Don't Get Concerned About Sun/Mon

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On the Balance Between Communication and Hype

I hesitated before I composed this morning’s heads-up outlook. My thoughts were along the lines of  “here it is Wednesday, and I’m looking at model data from Tuesday night, and the models I can access differ significantly — yet I feel the need to post about it now.”

A really good discussion has erupted online today, not having to do with this system but with the tropical system forecast by the GFS next week. I’m not going to wade in the middle of that, except to say: I think now is an appropriate time to remind you it’s not what any one source you trust tells you regarding the weather…it’s what you consistently hear from multiple sources. It’s up to you to filter the hype from the facts.

…broadcast and NWS meteorologists really can’t speak out much in public, but don’t take their public silence as complacency. Some of the loudest and most anti-hoaxer ranting I’ve heard comes from broadcast mets behind the scenes. Social media hypestorms make their lives hell because the public sees “big blizzard next week!” on Facebook and doesn’t care that it came from a 12-year-old trying to get likes on his FB page. People take it out on the actual meteorologists when the hoax/hyped storm doesn’t pan out. Dennis Mercereau, in comments following an article he wrote for The Vane today.

THAT’S why I posted the heads-up for Sunday/Monday. I heard first about it from Ryan in last week’s long-term outlook and have now been seeing discussions of it in various NWS offices for the past 2-3 days. So I checked the models for myself and found the two I watch this far out (the GFS and the Euro) have significant disagreements about that time period. I expect them to resolve at some point, and it won’t surprise me at all if the Euro has the more accurate solution this far out. The GFS does have decent skill with Plains weather systems in the spring, but its skill at tropical forecasting is dismal at best. I’d bet the farm on the Euro solution (a clear Gulf a week from now) than on any of the GFS tropical output so far.

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Early Heads-Up: Sunday/Monday

It’s still a ways out, but…

At least one model (the GFS) is consistent in showing a fairly strong cold front moving across Kansas in the late Monday time frame. At this point the front is expected to enter the state late Saturday but wash out. Then it is expected to re-form Sunday into Monday.

As you should with any forecast five or six days ahead of time, take this one with a grain of salt. But remember this is consistent with the outlook Ryan Martin posted Monday of last week.

GFS Model, 7pm CDT Aug. 25, 2014

Here’s how NWS ICT sees it:

ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON & NIGHT THE MOST VOLATILE PERIOD MAY BE LATE MON AFTERNOON & NIGHT WHEN INSTABILITIES & DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (BOTH SPEED & DIRECTIONAL) INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN & CENTRAL THIRDS OF KS.

I’d think hail and wind would be the primary severe storm risks. A lot of time for things to change still…I’ll update on Friday.

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A look ahead 8/19-8/27

The extended outlooks have been pretty pallid recently,  but this morning the potential for an impressive front in the extended period catches my eye.  In the buildup toward the end of the month, we see some fairly good heat building in over western KS and the high plains around the 19th-23rd. No big deal…its often hot in August. However, a strong front that starts to flatten the western ridge builds in over Canada around the 24th and then starts to march southward. We see strong storms and potentially heavy rains over the Dakotas and southern Canadian prairies for the 24th-25th. Again…no big deal.

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Gettin' by with a Little Help from A Friend

As those who follow my Facebook page know, I am friends with Don Grier, who was burned in a house fire that destroyed the family home on Monday morning. Don and his father Jack were the only occupants of the house. Both were taken to the Pratt hospital, then Don was airlifted to the Via Christi St. Francis Burn Center. He has second-degree burns nearly the circumference of his left arm and hand and lesser burns on a good portion of his right arm and hands, along with what appears to be a very bad sunburn on his face. He was released home from the hospital yesterday (07-22-14). Jack remains in the hospital at the moment for treatment of a previously-existing medical issue.

The house was nearly completely consumed by the fire, which took hours to bring under control. Here’s video of what it looked like yesterday afternoon:

Yes, they’ve lost everything. I’m not sure about Jack, but to my knowledge this is the only home Don has known (except for college).

I’m setting up this page as the central hub for whatever assistance efforts any friends, fraternity brothers, churches or community members may wish to take.

If you would like to link to an event, fund, or whatever you’d like to do to help, please email me, [email protected], and I will get it added to the page.

Wed, June 23:

Take Them A Meal - only the next two evenings are confirmed. Please see important information on that page.

Clothing:  I do not know Jack’s sizes. Don’s: 2XL shirts, 42/32 pants (sweat pants or elastic waist shorts would be best now due to difficulty buttoning pants), 12 narrow shoes. He will need a pair of work boots when he is ready to try to do any salvage that might be possible, all he has right now are a pair of tennis shoes. I’m looking for someone to coordinate this part please email if you’re willing.

Cards, letters of support: 90383 E US 54, Pratt, KS 67124

Money donations: we’re just getting the ball rolling on a benefit account, I’ll update this page and post to Storm Chaser Scott Roberts on Facebook when I know the information.